How Trump could get his July 4 megabill
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IN TODAY'S EDITION:— When the Senate might vote on the megabill— Lawmakers consider Kaine's Iran resolution— Possible federal pension changes incoming
Republicans' 'big, beautiful bill' is in tatters. President Donald Trump still wants it on his desk by July 4. Here's everything that will have to go right to make that happen:
GOP senators and staff now believe Saturday is the earliest voting will start on the bill. Senate Majority Leader John Thune acknowledged Thursday that parliamentarian rulings forcing Republicans to rewrite key provisions of the bill are throwing his timeline into chaos.
A Saturday vote would assume no more major procedural issues, but that is not assured: Republicans could run into trouble with their use of current policy baseline, the accounting tactic they want to use to zero-out the cost of tax-cut extensions. Other adverse recommendations from Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough could force additional redrafts of Republicans' tax plans.
Even if Republicans resolve every outstanding issue with the parliamentarian in the next 24 hours, Thune needs to firm up his whip count. The cap on state provider taxes remains among the thorniest issues, with senators threatening to block debate on the megabill until the Medicaid financing issue is resolved.
If the Senate does vote Saturday to proceed, expect Democrats to use the bulk of their 10 hours of debate time, while Republicans forfeit most of theirs. Then comes the main event — vote-a-rama — which would set up likely final passage for sometime Sunday.
That starts the timer for the House. GOP leaders there have pledged to give members 48 hours' notice of a vote — and they have already advised the earliest that voting could happen is Monday evening. Republicans will have to adopt a rule before moving to debate and final passage.
But the House's timeline depends wholly on what condition the megabill is in when it arrives from the Senate. Groups of House Republicans are already drawing red lines on matters ranging from SALT to clean-energy tax credits to public land sales. The hope is that the Senate will take care of those concerns in one final 'wraparound' amendment at the end of vote-a-rama.
If they don't, House GOP leaders are adamant that there will need to be changes — likely pushing the timeline deep into July, or perhaps beyond. For one, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise said Thursday the Senate's slower phase-out of clean-energy tax credits 'will need to be reversed,' or else.
'If there are major modifications that we cannot accept, then we would go back to the drawing board, fix some of that and send it back over,' Speaker Mike Johnson said on Thursday. 'So we should avoid that process, if possible.'
TGIF. Well, unless you're in the Senate, where Sen. John Boozman politely told Lisa to be prepared to work through the weekend. Email us at lkashinsky@politico.com, mmccarthy@politico.com, crazor@politico.com and bguggenheim@politico.com. Follow our live coverage at politico.com/congress.
More live coverage: Starting at 10 a.m., the Supreme Court will issue the final opinions of its current term on birthright citizenship, abortion, congressional lines in Louisiana, the FCC and more. Follow along at politico.com/SCOTUS2025 for real-time analysis from our legal, politics and policy reporters.
IN MEMORIAM — Former Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, who successfully ran for Congress in 1996 as a crusader for gun control after a mass shooting on a New York commuter train left her husband dead and her son severely wounded, has died. She was 81.
THE SKED
The House is in session and voting on a resolution condemning riots in Los Angeles at 10 a.m.
— House members will receive a briefing on the Iran conflict from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Gen. Dan Caine and CIA Director John Ratcliffe in the CVC auditorium at 9 a.m.
The Senate is in session and will vote on moving forward with Sen. Tim Kaine's war powers resolution on Iran at 6 p.m.
Next week: House and Senate Republicans will attempt to pass their megabill before July 4.
THE LEADERSHIP SUITE
Senators consider check on war powers
Senators are expected to take an initial vote at 6 p.m. on Kaine's resolution that would bar the president from taking further military action in Iran without congressional approval.
Kaine believes Republicans will support the measure, but won't say who or how many. Several GOP senators left a Thursday briefing on the conflict not entirely convinced by Trump's claim that Iran's nuclear program has been obliterated, Calen and Lisa report with our Connor O'Brien, Joe Gould and John Sakellariadis.
Sen. Rand Paul — who is consistently critical of U.S. military interventions — has been mum on how he'll vote. But he signaled the answer could come in the floor speech he plans to give ahead of the vote.
Democrats will lose Sen. John Fetterman. 'I want to make sure to reserve the right for the president, Democrat or Republican, to do the kinds of things that President Obama has done in the past or what Trump did with Iran,' Fetterman told reporters Thursday.
House members will have their Iran briefing at 9 a.m. This comes as some House lawmakers are mulling two competing war powers resolutions, which Johnson could attempt to quash in advance using a rule.
Johnson, Jeffries team up on member security
Johnson and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries emerged from a meeting on member security pledging 'change' and tapping their deputies on House Administration to 'immediately' and 'aggressively chart the path forward.'
The House leaders issued a joint statement Thursday saying they 'recognize the urgency of acting quickly, decisively, and in a bipartisan manner' but did not detail potential changes. Jeffries had been pushing Johnson to 'substantially increase' the amount of money the House spends on member security.
POLICY RUNDOWN
PENSION PROBLEM PATCH — Senate Republicans are considering a tweak to their pension reform plan that would hike how much federal employees need to contribute to their retirement, according to draft reconciliation text from Senate Homeland Security our Lawrence Ukenye scooped. Lawmakers are considering hiking federal employees' retirement contributions to 15.6 percent of their salary, as opposed to the 9.4 percent required in the first version. The bill would also carve out an exemption for members of Congress and their staff.
FRESH BYRD DROPPINGS — Senate Banking Republicans are now proposing to slash the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's funding by almost half, after the parliamentarian deemed their initial plan to zero out the bureau's funding ineligible, our Jasper Goodman reports. The parliamentarian signed off on the new proposal late Thursday.
The parliamentarian also ruled Republicans' bid to deregulate gun silencers is noncompliant, part of a new batch of decisions that hit overnight.
The parliamentarian also asked Senate Commerce to rework the 10-year moratorium on enforcing state artificial intelligence laws that she initially approved to make clear it wouldn't impact $42 billion in broadband funding, our Anthony Adragna reported earlier Thursday.
One win for Republicans: The parliamentarian approved Republicans' tweaked plan to push some costs of the nation's anti-hunger program onto states, our Grace Yarrow reports. That allows them to maintain a crucial $41 billion spending cut that will help pay for the megabill.
LAND SALES LANDSLIDING — Five House Republicans are threatening to vote down the GOP megabill if the Senate includes a provision to sell public lands for development, after Sen. Mike Lee sought to include a narrowed version of his proposal in the bill this week, our James Bikales reports. In a letter led by Rep. Ryan Zinke, Reps. Mike Simpson, Dan Newhouse, Cliff Bentz and David Valadao warned they would not support a package that included Lee's proposed land sales language.
But it may not even get through the Senate. Sen. Steve Daines said he has the votes to strike it during a vote-a-rama: 'We're ready,' he said.
REVENGE TAX AXED — Senate Republicans abruptly dropped the 'revenge tax' from their megabill after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a new 'joint understanding' with members of the G7.
Republicans originally intended to use the tax to retaliate against foreign countries for 'discriminatory' taxes levied against U.S. companies. Bessent said on X that, under the new understanding, part of an OECD framework brokered under former President Joe Biden no longer applies to American companies. But dropping the revenge tax language also means Senate Republicans lose a whopping $52 billion revenue-raiser and may have to look for additional savings elsewhere.
D'ESPOSITO OUT, FOR NOW — Senate HELP reversed plans to vote on Trump's Labor Department IG pick Thursday afternoon, our Nick Niedzwiadek reports. A committee spokesperson didn't comment on why HELP removed the nominee, former Rep. Anthony D'Esposito, from the docket. He could still come up for a vote in the future.
D'Esposito lost a close race for reelection last year after The New York Times reported he had placed romantic connections on his congressional payroll.
MORE CRYPTO MACHINATIONS — Senate Banking Republicans won't take up cryptocurrency market structure legislation until September, the latest twist in senators' standoff with the House over how to advance legislation governing digital assets, Jasper reports. There's a chance draft text could be released before August recess, though.
Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott's decision to punt past August recess comes as House Financial Services Republicans weigh marrying market structure legislation to their version of the stablecoin regulatory bill. Senate Republicans and Trump are pressing the House to quickly pass a 'clean' version of the Senate's stablecoin bill.
Best of POLITICO Pro and E&E:
CAMPAIGN STOP
TEXAS DEMS DUKE IT OUT — Former Reps. Colin Allred and Beto O'Rourke, Rep. Joaquin Castro and state Rep. James Talarico met virtually last month to sort out who among them would run for Senate, The Dallas Morning News reports. Problem is, they're all interested. That could dash some Texas Democrats' dreams that the four would slot themselves into a slate for top statewide offices. The group is set to meet again this summer.
Democrats have one candidate in the race: former NASA astronaut and International Space Station commander Terry Virts.
MEANWHILE, IN KENTUCKY — Businessman Nate Morris entered the GOP primary to succeed Sen. Mitch McConnell.
Separately, Axios reported the super PAC Trump's political operation launched to oust Rep. Thomas Massie is going up with its first TV ad against Massie, part of a $1 million buy. It highlights votes Massie's taken against Trump-backed legislation and claims that by criticizing the president's decision to strike Iran, he 'sided' with the nation's supreme leader.
TUNNEL TALK
DACA DO-OVER — House appropriators added a proposal to allow DACA recipients to work in Congress in the Legislative Branch funding bill, with an amendment sponsored by Rep. Pete Aguilar, our Katherine Tully-McManus reports. Similar amendments have been adopted before, only to be nixed later by GOP leaders to appease hard-liners.
Also in the bill: The panel voted to move forward with the nearly 50 percent cut to the Government Accountability Office and to keep the decade-long freeze on lawmaker's salaries in place. They also did not take up a few amendments on member security, despite recent concern from both sides of the aisle about lawmaker safety.
THE BEST OF THE REST
Republicans Say Tax Cuts Will Spur Growth. It Hasn't Worked in the Past., from Carl Hulse at The New York Times
USAID Shutdown Costs Top $6 Billion, Internal Estimate Shows, from Ian Kullgren and Jack Fitzgerald at Bloomberg Government
JOB BOARD
Jonathan Kupperman has been promoted to be legislative director for Rep. Jodey Arrington. He most recently was his health policy adviser.
Anthony Fakhoury has been promoted to be comms director for Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks.
Landon Hoffman has been promoted to be chief of staff for Rep. Laurel Lee.
Jason Berardo has been promoted to be legislative director for Rep. Mike Turner.
Lizzie Harvey is now press secretary for Sen. Mike Lee. She most recently was deputy press secretary for Sen. John Barrasso.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY
Reps. David Scott (8-0) and Ashley Hinson… Jennifer DeCasper … Semafor's Eleanor Mueller … New Hampshire Gov. Kelly Ayotte … former Reps. Conor Lamb, Scott Taylor, Mike Honda, Jim Nussle and Jeff Miller … Hunter Morgen … Terry Nelson of FP1 Strategies … Reuters' David Shepardson … David Wochner of K&L Gates … Isaac Reyes of Target … Hub Project's Jessica Floyd … Robert Schlesinger … Matt Letourneau … Brian Martinez of the American Conservation Coalition … Thorn Run Partners' Harriet Melvin and Carmen Ojeda … Kathleen Welch … Bailey Ware of Sen. Dan Sullivan's office … Bullpen Strategies' Becca Atkins
TRIVIA
THURSDAY'S ANSWER: Piper Merritt correctly answered that Bill Clinton issued the Roadless Area Conservation Rule in 2001 to protect national forests.
TODAY'S QUESTION, from Piper: Which House committee celebrated its 200th birthday in 2020?
The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Inside Congress. Send your answers to insidecongress@politico.com.
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