Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland prediction, pick, start time for UFC 316
Vicente Luque and Kevin Holland meet Saturday in the main card opener of UFC 316 at Prudential Center in Newark, N.J. Check out this quick breakdown of the matchup from MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom.
Last event: 3-2
UFC main cards, 2025: 49-41-1
Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland UFC 316 preview
Luque (23-10-1 MMA, 16-6 UFC) will look to win back-to-back UFC fights for the first time since 2021. The 33-year-old welterweight has gone 2-3 over his last five, but enters the UFC 316 main card opener on the heels of a bonus-earning submission of Themba Gorimbo in December. ... Holland (27-13 MMA, 14-10 UFC) finds himself in a similar position as his opponent. He enters on the heels of a unanimous decision win over Gunnar Nelson in March, and will be looking for his first back-to-back win since 2023. The 32-year-old is much more active than Luque, but has struggled to maintain winning momentum.
Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland UFC 316 expert pick, prediction
The paid portion of the card kicks off with a welterweight showdown between Luque and Holland.
Despite a brain bleed threatening the career of Luque after his war with Geoff Neal, the Brazilian action fighter has steadily been trying to rekindle the form that brought him to prominence. And though Luque is coming off a vintage-style win over Themba Gorimbo last December, it's still hard to know exactly where Luque is, given how long that fight lasted.
Holland may seem like the obvious pick at first glance, but we can't forget the inconsistencies he traditionally comes with as well.
Whether Holland is having a nip-and-tuck affair with the skeleton of Santiago Ponzinibbio or is outright refusing win conditions against a retirement home-level Stephen Thompson, "Trail Blazer" can be tough to trust – particularly as a heavy favorite.
Don't get me wrong: Holland winning this via some straight punches down the pike is the most probable outcome this Saturday.
However, with Luque being further and further along from his head injury and his recent trends of grappling, I find myself taking a semi-reluctant shot on Luque to score the upset.
The pick is Luque by submission in Round 1.
Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland UFC 316 odds
The oddsmakers and the public favor the American fighter, listing Holland -265 and Luque +210 via FanDuel.
Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland UFC 316 start time, how to watch
As the main card opener, Luque and Holland are expected to walk to the cage at approximately 9:10 p.m. ET. The fight broadcasts on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
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