Oil prices surge and markets retreat after Israel's strike on Iran

San Francisco Chronicle​

17 hours ago

HONG KONG (AP) — Oil prices surged and Asian shares were lower Friday after Israel struck Iranian nuclear and military targets in an attack that raised the risk of all-out war between them.
U.S. benchmark crude oil rose by $3.93, or 5.8%, to $71.97 per barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, increased by $3.82 to $73.18 per barrel.
In share trading, Tokyo's Nikkei 225 fell 0.9% to 37,834.25 while the Kospi in Seoul edged 0.9% lower to 2,894.62. Hong Kong's Hang Seng retreated 0.9% to 23,831.48 and the Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.7% to 3,378.76.
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 drifted 0.2% lower to 8,547.40.
'An Israeli attack on Iran poses a top ten of our global risk, but Asian markets are expected to recover quickly as they have relatively limited exposure to the conflict and growing ties to unaffected Saudi Arabia and the UAE,' said Xu Tiachen of The Economist Intelligence.
On Thursday, U.S. stock indexes ticked higher following another encouraging update on inflation across the country.
The S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 6,045.26. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.2% to 42,967.62, and the Nasdaq composite gained 0.2% to 19,662.48.
Oracle jumped 13.3% after reporting stronger profit and revenue for the latest quarter than analysts expected.
That helped markets offset a 4.8% loss for Boeing after an Air India plane crashed Thursday, killing more than 240 people. It was the first crash of a Boeing 787 Dreamliner, and the cause wasn't immediately known.
Stocks broadly got some help from easing Treasury yields in the bond market following the latest update on inflation. Thursday's update said inflation at the wholesale level wasn't as bad last month as economists expected, and it followed a report on Wednesday saying something similar about the inflation that U.S. consumers are feeling.
Wall Street took it as a signal that the Federal Reserve will have more leeway to cut interest rates later this year in order to give the economy a boost.
The Federal Reserve has been hesitant to lower interest rates, and it's been on hold this year after cutting at the end of last year, because it's waiting to see how much President Donald Trump's tariffs will hurt the economy and raise inflation. While lower rates can goose the economy by encouraging businesses and households to borrow, they can also accelerate inflation.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.35% from 4.41% late Wednesday and from roughly 4.80% early this year.
Besides the inflation data, a separate report on jobless claims also helped to weigh on Treasury yields. It said slightly more U.S. workers applied for unemployment benefits last week than economists expected, and the total number remained at the highest level in eight months. That could be an indication of a rise in layoffs.
The Fed's next meeting on interest rates is scheduled for next week, but the nearly unanimous expectation on Wall Street is that it will stand pat again. Traders are betting it's likely to begin cutting in September, according to data from CME Group.
Trump's on-and-off tariffs have raised worries about higher inflation and a possible recession, which had sent the S&P 500 roughly 20% below its record a couple months ago. But stocks have since rallied nearly all the way back on hopes that Trump will lower his tariffs after reaching trade deals with other countries.
Many of Trump's tariffs are on hold at the moment to give time for negotiations, but Trump added to the uncertainty late Wednesday when he suggested the United States could send letters to other countries at some point 'saying this is the deal. You can take it or you can leave it.'