Low-pressure over Bay of Bengal to intensify rain over central India, west coast
Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Goa, Maharashtra (including Mumbai), and Gujarat in the next seven days. 'Extremely heavy rain likely over Konkan (including Mumbai) and Goa, Ghat areas of Madhya (central) Maharashtra till August 19, Gujarat till August 20; Saurashtra on August 19 and 20, with rain activities peaking on August 19,' IMD said.
Heavy to very heavy rainfall is also likely over Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, and Odisha in the next two days. 'Isolated extremely heavy rain over coastal Andhra Pradesh during August 17–18, Odisha and Telangana on August 18,' it said.
So far, heavy rainfall activity has been concentrated over the Western Himalayas and foothills, particularly Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Uttar Pradesh. The monsoon trough is currently positioned south of its normal location.
The fresh low-pressure area formed over the west-central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal, off the north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coasts, at 5.30 am Indian Standard Time (IST) on Sunday under the influence of an upper air cyclonic circulation. It is likely to move west-northwestwards, intensify into a depression within the next 24 hours, and cross the south Odisha–north Andhra Pradesh coasts around the forenoon of August 19.
Meanwhile, the low-pressure area that formed on Saturday over south Chhattisgarh has moved west-northwestward and currently lies over Vidarbha and adjoining areas. It is expected to continue moving west-northwestward, weaken gradually, and reach Gujarat around the morning of August 18 as a remnant cyclonic circulation.
An upper air cyclonic circulation lies over the northeast Arabian Sea and adjoining south Gujarat-Konkan region, between the lower and middle tropospheric levels. A trough runs from the northeast Arabian Sea to the low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal, extending across north Marathwada, Vidarbha, and south Chhattisgarh, tilting southward with height. Another upper air cyclonic circulation is also present over central Pakistan and adjoining Punjab at lower tropospheric levels.
Under the influence of these systems, widespread and heavy rainfall is likely over Konkan, Goa, the Ghat areas of central Maharashtra, and Gujarat, among other regions.
Isolated heavy rainfall is also likely over Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Muzaffarabad till August 19; Himachal Pradesh on August 17 and 18 and again from August 21 to 23; Uttarakhand and East Rajasthan during the next seven days; Punjab till August 19 and on August 23; Haryana, Chandigarh, and Delhi on August 18, 22, and 23; West Uttar Pradesh on August 22 and 23; and East Uttar Pradesh till August 23.
Since June 1, there has been 0% excess rainfall over the country overall, with a 17% deficiency in east and northeast India; 14% excess over northwest India; 3% excess over central India; and 5% excess over the South Peninsula.
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