What to Know About Tropical Storm Erin
As of the evening of Aug. 12, Erin was still more than 1,600 miles away from the Northern Leeward Islands and the edge of the Caribbean, but as eyes look eastward for what is expected to be the first hurricane of the 2025 season to form, here are some things to know about this storm.
Erin Expected to Become Major Hurricane
As of 5 p.m. on Aug. 12, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported that Tropical Storm Erin was moving fast across the Atlantic Ocean. The storm is expected to become a hurricane in the next couple of days, and to grow into a major hurricane by Sunday, Aug. 17. A major hurricane is one that is a Category 3 or higher with sustained wind speeds greater than 111 mph.
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Yahoo
29 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Hurricane drama vs. data: Why Erin is a miniscule threat to Florida, U.S. east coast
Sometimes an open Atlantic storm is just an open Atlantic storm. In fact, that's true the majority of the time. Of the approximately 1,300 named storms that have developed in the Atlantic, Gulf, or Caribbean since 1900, about 400 went on to make landfall as a tropical storm or hurricane somewhere along the continental U.S. coastline. That leaves about two-thirds of storms as someone else's problem, or my personal preference, no one's problem. ➤ Track all active storms ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location Hurricane news: Get the latest hurricane updates and how communities are preparing, responding, and recovering. Point being, while the average season has three to five tropical storm and one to two hurricane landfalls in the continental U.S., a given storm is less likely than not to strike land. That's particularly true for cyclones developing in the Tropical Atlantic east of the Lesser Antilles, where formation is common in August and September but only around 1-in-5 of those systems will ever be a U.S. threat. Tropical Storm Erin is not going to beat those odds, despite what you may have read this week from purveyors of unnecessary drama such as Uncle Frank's Xtreme Weather Basement, Florida Clout Chaserz, or Gulf Coast Hurricane/Monster Jam First ALERT. Where is Erin now and where is the future hurricane heading? As of late Wednesday morning, Erin is about 1,200 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, moving a touch south of due west at 15 to 20 miles per hour. Erin's maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph, little changed since it developed on Monday. Thus far, tepid sea surface temperatures and nearby dry air have kept Erin's development prospects under arrest like a Charles Entertainment Cheese accused of financial fraud. However, while thunderstorm activity associated with Erin remains limited today, as its well-organized circulation moves west-northwest into warmer waters over the next day or two, low shear and sufficient moisture should allow it to start strengthening in earnest. By Saturday, Erin will likely be the first hurricane of the 2025 season as it passes a few hundred miles north of the northeastern Lesser Antilles, and may well reach Category 3 strength on Sunday or Monday as it moves north of Puerto Rico. These islands will not experience the worst of Erin, but could see intermittent bands of gusty showers between Saturday and Monday, along with high seas. Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Erin Only a 5% chance that a hurricane Erin becomes a U.S. threat, but East Coast could see rip currents Erin's path next week looks increasingly clear. As the storm reaches the western edge of a ridge of high pressure in the central Atlantic, it will turn north toward a dip in the jet stream over eastern Canada starting on Monday, pass near or west of Bermuda around Aug. 20 as a major hurricane, then accelerate northeast. There is a strong model consensus for this steering pattern, which should keep Erin's center well east of the U.S. East Coast. This isn't a situation where Erin could 'miss' the trough that will bend its path northward; even if the storm is farther south and west than predicted in the medium term, it'll turn north once the ridge to its north weakens. That means the already slim chances of Erin posing eventual U.S. landfall risks are narrowing further. At the start of the week, I put those odds at a little over 10%; now, with the steering pattern forecast firming up, I'd say there's a 5% (or lower) possibility of Erin threatening the continental U.S. next week. While we don't know exactly how far offshore Erin will pass and there is uncertainty in precisely what the steering winds will be in 7 days, forecasts of the jet stream pattern are reliable at this range and show no sign of major changes afoot. Thus, Erin will cause heavy surf and rip currents along the Eastern Seaboard starting mid-next week, but nothing in the way of rain, surge, or wind. Satellite view of Tropical Storm Erin When a real threat looms: WeatherTiger has your back Elsewhere, the tropics are mostly quiet. A disturbance crossing the Yucatan Peninsula will spread some moisture from northern Mexico to central Texas Friday and Saturday, though development is improbable before it moves inland. Otherwise, I'd guess that one more tropical wave may develop at some point over the next 12 days in the central or eastern tropical Atlantic based on generally favorable environmental conditions, but there's nothing specific to watch at this time. Assuming Erin behaves itself, it's a well-timed reminder that the historical peak of hurricane season is just beginning. Over 80% of U.S. major hurricane landfalls occur between Aug. 15 and Oct. 15, so the ripple of Erin agita should prompt you to ensure your hurricane kit and evacuation plans are in place. Erin also gives you a valuable opportunity to evaluate how your sources of hurricane information frame their reporting. If your sources were running around like Mike the Headless Chicken (a real 1940s carnival act who survived decapitation and could perform basic functions like eating, breathing, comparing tropical waves to Irma, and posting the 384-hour GFS 'for awareness') hyping up a non-existent Florida threat from Erin, I'd recommend you find less emotional, more scientific sources for the rest of the year. Hurricane season is bad enough without gross exaggeration for clicks. I view my most important job as making sure you have the lead time necessary to be optimally prepared for the surge, wind, rain, and tornado hazards from tropical cyclones, especially high-impact major storms. The flip side is that for my heads-up to mean anything, there can't be five false alarms for every actual threat. I don't show model runs from the world of pure imagination beyond a week out because they are just scary, not skillful or useful, and I have no interest in scaring you. Hurricane season is a marathon made up of discrete sprints. Discretion is the better part of valor, and though Erin should be a formidable hurricane next week, it isn't cause for concern, much less a sprint. We don't need to do that to ourselves, even as we keep watching the skies. Dr. Ryan Truchelut is chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, a Tallahassee company providing forensic meteorology expert witness services and agricultural and hurricane forecasting subscriptions. Visit to learn more. Email Truchelut at ryan@ This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Tropical Storm Erin forecast: Only a 5% threat to Florida, East Coast
Newsweek
an hour ago
- Newsweek
Meteorologists Reveal Chances of Tropical Storm Erin Impacting US
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. There is a 30 percent probability that Tropical Storm Erin will directly impact the United States next week as it nears the East Coast, according to an updated forecast from AccuWeather emailed to reporters on Wednesday. Why It Matters Tropical Storm Erin formed on Monday and continues to march westward across the Atlantic. It is expected to become the Atlantic's first hurricane of the season later this week, with National Hurricane Center (NHC) meteorologists warning that it could strengthen further into a major hurricane by late this coming weekend. As of Wednesday afternoon, the storm had maximum sustained wind speeds of 45 miles per hour. What To Know Earlier this week, AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek that the chances of Tropical Storm Erin bringing direct impacts to the U.S. East Coast have increased slightly as its path has shifted more to the south than originally forecast. "Based on current conditions, forecast atmospheric patterns for the next week, and historical hurricane tracks for this time of year, AccuWeather estimates a 70 percent probability that Erin will not directly impact the U.S. East Coast at this time," DaSilva said in the email on Wednesday. A forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center shows Tropical Storm Erin's path toward the U.S. A forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center shows Tropical Storm Erin's path toward the U.S. National Hurricane Center On Wednesday, DaSilva told Newsweek that the 30 percent chance of impacts in the U.S. doesn't mean Erin will make landfall on the East Coast. Rather, the storm will draw near enough to the U.S. to bring rain and wind impacts onshore. Even if it doesn't unleash rain and wind on the U.S., Erin will bring dangerous impacts to East Coast beaches by causing big waves and rip currents. "Families heading to Atlantic beaches this weekend and next week for a late-summer vacation need to be careful," DaSilva said in the AccuWeather email. "Rip currents can be deadly. More than 50 people have lost their lives to rip currents and rough surf at beaches across the country so far this year." The NHC also expressed uncertainty about Erin's U.S. impacts in its most recent key message about the storm on Wednesday morning. "Erin could move close enough to the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend to produce some impacts on those islands," a key message for the storm said. "However, the magnitude of those impacts is still not known, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm. There is even greater uncertainty in what impacts might occur in portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda next week." What People Are Saying Meteorologist Max Velocity in a post on X on Wednesday: "NORTHERN TURN now highlighted in the latest advisory cone for Tropical Storm Erin, however US impacts are still not completely ruled out." The National Hurricane Center, in a public advisory about Tropical Storm Erin: "Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office." What Happens Next Meteorologists will continue monitoring the storm closely as it progresses. Regardless of landfall, people in hurricane-prone areas are urged to prepare for such a storm now, before the peak of hurricane season hits in September.
Yahoo
3 hours ago
- Yahoo
Tropical Storm Erin path shifts, but still forecast to grow into major hurricane, NHC says
ORLANDO, Fla. — Tropical Storm Erin on Wednesday continued to push west through the Atlantic with it forecast to become the season's first hurricane, growing to major hurricane strength by Friday, according to the National Hurricane Center. As of the NHC's 11 a.m. Eastern time update, the center of Erin was located about 1,300 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands of the Caribbean moving west at 17 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Tropical storm-force winds extend out 60 miles. 'On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend,' said NHC senior hurricane specialist Richard Pasch. 'Gradual strengthening is forecast to begin today, and Erin will likely become a hurricane by late Thursday or early Friday.' The cone of uncertainty shifted back to the north slightly since Tuesday with the northwest Caribbean islands less likely in the storm's direct path. While there are no watches or warnings in place, the NHC advised the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico to monitor Erin's progress. Swells from the storm will begin to hit the islands by the weekend with dangerous rip current conditions. 'Erin has not been able to strengthen significantly for the past couple of days, likely due to marginal sea surface temperatures, and a relatively dry mid- to lower-tropospheric air mass,' Pasch said. 'However, it is expected that the system's environment will gradually become more conducive for intensification over the next 48 hours.' The forecast from the NHC has Erin intensifying into what would be the season's first hurricane with 75 mph sustained winds by early Thursday, making it a Category 1 hurricane. The forecast predicts it will grow into a major Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph sustained winds and gusts of 140 mph by Sunday morning with the cone of uncertainty encompassing a wide swath in the Atlantic that is just north of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Winds could potentially be felt in the islands beginning Friday. 'Erin could move close enough to the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend to produce some impacts on those islands,' the NHC stated in its key messages for the storm. 'However, the magnitude of those impacts is still not known, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm.' The impacts on the U.S., Bahamas and Bermuda also remain uncertain. As of 8 a.m., the NHC also was tracking a tropical wave with disorganized showers and thunderstorms that could develop after it emerges from the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, forecasters said. 'This disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward and cross the Yucatan Peninsula today with no significant increase in organization. Some development of this system is possible after it emerges across the southwestern Gulf beginning on Thursday while the system moves to the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph,' forecasters said. The NHC gave it a 10% chance to develop in the next two days and 20% in the next seven. After Erin, the next name on the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season would be Fernand. A second system that NHC had been tracking in the northwestern Atlantic off the coast of Nova Scotia had its chances for development dropped to 0%. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration last week updated its season forecast now calling for 13-18 named storms for the year, of which five to nine would grow into hurricanes. Two to five of those would develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher. The height of hurricane season runs from mid-August into October while the entire six-month season runs June 1 to Nov. 30. -----------
