Pirates' Oneil Cruz is already a Statcast legend. Can the rest of his game catch up?

New York Times

4 days ago

If, through some freaky genetic engineering, a scientist could combine the physical attributes of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, what might be the result?
Isiah Kiner-Falefa, a member of the New York Yankees in 2022-23, thinks he has the answer.
'If you put 'em both together,' the Pittsburgh Pirates shortstop said. 'I feel like it's Oneil Cruz.'
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Cruz, the Pirates' 6-foot-7, 240-pound center fielder, was at it again Sunday, hitting a home run 122.9 mph, the hardest-hit ball since Statcast started tracking in 2015. His exit velocities and powerful throws are the stuff of Statcast legend. His speed is pretty much elite, too. And considering he is only 26, in his first full season playing center field and working diligently to master the game's subtleties, heaven knows what he might become.

Kiner-Falefa, who said Cruz combines the quick twitch and 'missile-like' exit velos of Stanton with the athleticism and power of Judge, has an answer for that, too.
'If he maximizes his potential, he can be one of the best players ever,' Kiner-Falefa said.
Milwaukee Brewers manager Pat Murphy, after the weekend he just experienced in Pittsburgh, is not about to argue.
Friday night, Cruz hit a 117.9-mph home run, at that point the hardest-hit homer of his career, and a 113.4 blast to tie the score in the ninth inning of a game the Pirates won, 6-5.
Saturday, in a left-on-left matchup against Tyler Alexander, he hit the decisive triple in the seventh inning of a 2-1 Pirates victory.
And Sunday, after righty Logan Henderson allowed Cruz's 122.9 shot on a first-pitch fastball in the third inning, Murphy took no chances in the eighth. With two outs, a 6-5 lead and runner on second, he ordered an intentional walk to Cruz, putting him on base as the potential winning run.
The move to a righty-righty matchup worked, with Abner Uribe striking out Andrew McCutchen to end the inning and the Brewers winning the game. But days later, Murphy was still reliving the horror of it all.
'I commented to the media, it was like playing against a monster,' Murphy said. 'You just didn't want to look at it, you know what I mean? It was scary.'
Never mind that Cruz entered the weekend having gone nearly a month without a homer after hitting eight in his first 25 games. Murphy, 66, called it the best physical performance he has seen, by a hitter with the best bat speed he has seen.
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'That guy can hit 50 homers easy, 60,' Murphy said.
His current pace is a mere 34. Still, opposing pitchers shudder at the thought of missing with Cruz over the middle of the plate, and not simply because he might deposit the ball in the Allegheny River, as he did for the sixth time in his career Sunday.
A batted ball coming back to the mound at some ridiculous speed is an equally frightening proposition.
'It's something you're definitely cognizant of,' Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Zac Gallen said. 'And you get reminded of things like that after he hits the ball 123.'
St. Louis Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley joked the best option with Cruz might be to just walk him and avoid him entirely.
'Go to first base, dude,' Helsley said, laughing. 'I want to live.'
So, how close is Cruz to realizing his full potential?
McCutchen, a 17-year veteran who turns 39 in October, stewed on the question. And ultimately, he could not come up with an answer.
'I don't know. He's kind of a Rubik's Cube up there,' McCutchen said, referring to the difficult-to-solve puzzle. 'You see hints of it at times. But you also see the youthful side of it at times.'
McCutchen went on to explain that while Cruz hits the ball harder than anyone, with an average exit velocity of 97.2 mph that puts him in the 100th percentile of all major leaguers, hitting the ball hard isn't always necessary.
'Sometimes you take your walks in situations. Sometimes it just takes an easy swing to the opposite side of the field,' McCutchen said. 'It's things like that, when I talk about the mentality of the game, there's still some work to be done with him. It's definitely there. It's just a matter of piecing it together.'
Cruz, who made his debut with a two-game cameo in October 2021, remains relatively inexperienced. In 2022, the Pirates kept him in the minors until June 20. In 2023, he missed nearly the entire season with a fractured left ankle.
Wednesday's game against the Diamondbacks was the 293rd of his career, meaning he has played less than two full seasons. Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz, a player to whom Cruz often is compared, is three years younger, but has played in 15 more career games.
Expecting Cruz to be fully formed, then, is unrealistic, particularly when he came up as a shortstop and didn't play his first game in center until Aug. 28. McCutchen said the next step in Cruz's evolution is to go beyond his physical tools, and develop an instinctive, cerebral understanding of the sport. Baseball people call it 'playing the game.'
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For Cruz, McCutchen said, that means producing quality at-bats, getting on base, stealing bases, making difficult plays in the outfield look routine — and doing it all consistently.
Before hitting his 122.9-mph homer Sunday, Cruz made a 104-mph throw that sailed off the backstop on an RBI single by Sal Frelick, allowing a second run to score and Frelick to advance to third.
'Those are the plays we want him to learn from.' Pirates manager Don Kelly said. 'You know he's not a finished product.'
Kelly, Pirates players and coaches all said Cruz cares, works hard and is eager to improve. Yet even for the most talented, the game is difficult. And for a developing player, consistency often is elusive.
Following his big series at home against the Brewers, Cruz went 2-for-13 and six strikeouts on the road against the Arizona Diamondbacks, hitting his only homer, a two-run shot Wednesday, in his final at-bat of a 10-1 rout. For the season, he is batting .230 with 12 homers and an .841 OPS. He also leads the National League with 18 stolen bases in 19 attempts.
As the Pirates' leadoff hitter, Cruz understands that refining his plate discipline is vital. His 32.2 percent strikeout rate through Tuesday was the fourth highest in the majors, and up 2 percentage points from last season. However, he had increased his walk rate from 8.5 to 15.6 percent, and reduced his chase rate from 32.6 percent to 25.8.
Gallen, who retired Cruz three times Wednesday, including a strikeout, said pitchers at times can get him to hit their pitch, as opposed to giving him his pitch. Of course, Cruz makes such hard contact, he can mishit balls harder than other hitters square up with their best swings.
Regardless, Cruz started working in spring training on making better swing decisions.
'I think we're in a good spot. But we can always get better at that,' Cruz said through Pirates interpreter Stephen Morales. 'If I control the strike zone like great hitters in the past have done, definitely I can be a better hitter, be at the top of the list.'
Pirates outfield coach Tarrik Brock likes to make things fun. So, during batting practice, he occasionally will engage Cruz in a fly ball catching competition.
Brock played 13 games in the outfield for the Chicago Cubs in 2000. At 51, he remains in good shape. But to compensate for his age difference with Cruz, he established a rule: Cruz must prevail by three catches to win a round.
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The current tally is in dispute. Brock said the two are tied, 3-3. Cruz said he leads, 6-3. Either way, Cruz lightheartedly boasted, Brock has 'no chance.'
'He likes laughing at me,' Brock said. 'And I love being laughed at.'
Cruz's transition to center field, though, is serious business. After making 24 errors at shortstop last season, he played the position for the last time on Aug. 25. At the Pirates' behest, he was in center three days later, for the first time in his career.
As opposed to the San Diego Padres' Jackson Merrill, who had all of 2024 spring training to prepare for his move from shortstop to center, Cruz received a crash course. Brock provided the bare minimum instruction necessary to get him through his final 23 games.
Spring training was a better laboratory. Brock built up Cruz in layers. Teaching him fundamental techniques. Showing him spray charts. Helping him understand the position's nuances.
The only way for Cruz to apply those lessons, though, was by playing in games.
'Now we have different dialogue,' Brock said. 'He'll come up and go, 'Hey, with this guy, I think I should move over a little bit more.' Absolutely. He's getting it. He's moving other guys.'
Cruz, knowing he is fast enough to catch up to balls hit behind him, plays center with an average depth of 316 feet, five feet shallower than league average. Among regular center fielders, only the Philadelphia Phillies' Johan Rojas sets up closer to home plate.
The defensive metrics show Cruz is no Pete Crow-Armstrong. Cruz readily acknowledges he is a work in progress. But McCutchen, a center fielder for the first nine years of his career, is impressed.
'He's doing great,' McCutchen said. 'When he makes mistakes, you have to realize he doesn't understand that part. And it's going to sometimes take the mistakes for him to learn. You have to give him some grace there. The fan base has to give him some grace, so he can learn from it.
'He's learning to let off the throttle a little bit, especially on fly balls. He's not 100 percent every time. He's gliding to the ball better. I just can't wait for him to get to some of those zero percent catch probabilities and actually catch them. He has the capability of doing that, catching balls no one else can.'
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Brock, who doubles as the Pirates' first base coach, said Cruz also is showing greater discipline in the way he steals bases, waiting for the right combination of a pitcher's time to plate and catcher's pop time to go. Cruz is within four steals of the career high of 22 he established last season, when he was coming off his ankle surgery.
'This year,' he said, 'I feel so much better.'
Kiner-Falefa sees the entire package coming together. As Cruz grasps his potential as a base stealer, he is running more. And as he grows increasingly comfortable in center, he can devote more time to his offense.
'The next step for him is the (batting) average. It will come,' Kiner-Falefa said. 'The OPS is going to be there. The power is going to be there. But I also believe he could hit .280 to .330. His speed alone, sometimes he hits the ball too hard where he can't use his legs.'
As with any homegrown Pirates star, the length of time Pittsburgh fans will get to enjoy Cruz likely is limited. He is eligible for salary arbitration for the first time this offseason, and under club control for the next three years. By the time he becomes eligible for free agency, entering his age-30 season, he figures to be at the peak of his powers.
How close is he to that peak now?
McCutchen isn't sure.
'But I know,' McCutchen said, 'how great he can be.'
(Top photo of Oneil Cruz: Joe Puetz / Getty Images)