Erin becomes the first hurricane of 2025 Atlantic season
Erin continues to strengthen in the southwestern Atlantic, becoming a category-one hurricane.
The noon update by the National Hurricane Center on Friday declared Erin a category-one hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h. The storm is located 740 kilometres east of the northern Leeward Islands of the Caribbean and is moving WNW at 29 km/h.
The storm continues in a favourable environment for further strengthening. Over ocean waters with surface temperatures near 29 C and without any prevailing winds strong enough to disorganize the storm. The storm is forecast to become a major category-three hurricane as it passes north of Puerto Rico Sunday morning.
Hurricane Erin
The Friday noon update for Hurricane Erin by the National Hurricane Center. Erin is the first hurricane of the Atlantic season and likely to be the first major hurricane as well
Current land impacts in the forecast include potential heavy rainfall Friday night through Sunday for the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Due to an expected curve north and east, the National Hurricane Center notes a gradually decreasing risk of impacts to the east coast of the United States. Bermuda is being advised to continue to monitor the progress of the hurricane.
For the Maritimes, it is still too early to ascertain if there will be any weather impact to the region. The predicted recurve (movement north and east of the storm) could take it far enough east of Sable Island as it moves past not to have much on land weather impact. That is the consensus trend shown in longer range forecast models. That longer range is also the part of the forecast that is more susceptible to large change. Re-assessment of the storm on Sunday and Monday will give us a much better idea if we need to be concerned about it next week or not.
Rain reports
As expected, the showers and thunderstorms brought through by a cold front Wednesday and Thursday didn't produce the widespread soaking rain the region needs.
For many areas rain totals didn't come to much more than a few to several millimetres. St. Stephen, N.B., picked up 23 mm of rain in a thunderstorm Thursday evening and Truro, N.S., got 40 mm Thursday night.
Rain reports
Some higher rain amounts reported in very localized thunderstorms but otherwise pretty low totals produced Wednesday through Thursday.
For some communities in eastern Prince Edward Island, the rain associated with the thunderstorms may have been too much, too quickly. Glenco reported a rain total of 77 mm from a thunderstorm. That amount of rain in a shorter duration would increase the risk of flash flooding.
Sunny Saturday, showers Sunday
High pressure moving in from Quebec will remain in place for the Maritimes on Saturday.
It will be a mostly sunny day with temperatures bouncing back towards being hotter in New Brunswick. That province can expect widespread afternoon temperatures in the high-20's except low-to-mid 20's on the coastline. Prince Edward Island will have highs on Saturday of 23 to 26 C except 21 C on parts of the coast. Nova Scotia will have high temperatures of 24 to 27 C except 21 to 24 C on parts of the coast.
Rainfall outlook
A weather front is expected to bring showers into New Brunswick Sunday. Showers Sunday evening and night for Prince Edward Island and Nova Scotia.
A cold front moving over the St. Lawrence River Valley returns showers with a risk of thunderstorms to New Brunswick Sunday. Showers from the weather system are likely to reach Prince Edward Island and Nova Scotia Sunday evening and night. Early rainfall estimates have it as a general two-to-10 millimetres. Pockets of 10-to-30 mm possible in New Brunswick and western Prince Edward Island in the event of a downpour or thunderstorm.
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