Israeli Stocks Rise as Traders See US Hastening End to Conflict
(Bloomberg) -- Middle Eastern stocks rose, led by Israel and Egypt, as the region's traders bet the US intervention in the Iran conflict will accelerate its end.
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Israel's TA-35 benchmark index advanced 0.8% as of 3:04 p.m. Dubai time, posting a sixth successive day of gains and staying on course for the biggest quarterly advance since 2009. Egypt's equity benchmark, which had led losses last Sunday at the start of the attacks, posted a 2.5% jump.
Other markets in the region recorded modest gains. The Boursa Kuwait Premier Market Index and the MSX30 Index in Muscat added 0.4% each. Qatar's benchmark was 0.2% higher. Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All Share Index erased an advance.
'Markets are focused on whether the war spreads to other countries and there is no evidence of that as yet,' said Hasnain Malik, a strategist at Tellimer in Dubai. 'The benign interpretation is that the US intervention will accelerate the end of the war. That, of course, remains to be seen.'
In Israel, bank shares accounted for most of the gains, while defense supplier Elbit Systems Inc. dropped more than 2%.
'The market is displaying cautious optimism against the backdrop of the security reality,' Yaniv Pagot, vice president of trading at Tel Aviv Stock Exchance, said in a note. 'The increases reflect an improvement in the risk premium of the State of Israel.'
Bets for Volatility
Irrespective of early reaction in the Middle East, global investors are bracing for market turbulence that may trigger a dash into haven assets on Monday. The move by President Donald Trump without Congressional approval willl have wrong-footed some traders after he indicated he would take up to two weeks to decide on such strikes.
Money managers are now watching out for Iran's response, including whether it blocks the Strait of Hormuz — a key passage for oil and gas — and whether it attacks US assets in the region.
Iran vowed to impose 'everlasting consequences' for the attacks and said it reserves all options to defend its sovereignty. Commentators and officials speculated what that response might be: Iran might attack American bases in the region or Israel's nuclear research center near the desert town of Dimona, or escalate its own nuclear program.
While investors over the past two weeks repeatedly tried to see a silver lining — expecting the conflict to remain regional and not involve the US — that optimism has now been belied. Trump has also not ruled out further attacks, threatening even greater force if Iran retaliates.
'Short-term, markets such as crude oil will pivot on whether Iran retaliates and widens the war in a way that impacts oil supply versus backing down and offering concessions on its nuclear program,' Tellimer's Malik said. 'The biggest risk to the region is a collapse of the regime in Iran and a descent into Syrian-style civil war. US intervention may increase the probability of this.'
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