Tasmanian election called for July 19, but both Liberals and Labor hamstrung on key issues

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a day ago

After a nail-biting few days of "will they, won't they, could they, should they," Tasmania's very, very early election is full-steam ahead.
Except this one can't exactly be full steam, can it?
After all, it's an election that nobody wanted brought on for a variety of reasons, including the dire state of Tasmania's budget situation.
That was one of the reasons for Labor's successful no-confidence motion in Premier Jeremy Rockliff.
Imagine making that a sticking point and then throwing cash at a bunch of bowls clubs (they're always on the funding list).
If the major parties want to look like they're serious about getting Tasmania's finances back on track, they are going to need to avoid any form of pork barrelling.
No matter how tempting.
The Liberals have been accused of it the past three elections. Their response is to deny it's happening and insist they're simply listening to the community.
Labor also made promises to sports clubs last election, but the plan was to have government departments "rigorously" assess them all before the funds were handed out.
On top of that, Labor has said it wants to ban pork barrelling as part of its plan to fix the budget, it would be rather hypocritical to engage in it itself.
But it's not just pork barrelling that arguably needs to go.
Even a competitive sports grants process, which would otherwise be welcomed, could be a little on the nose, given the state barely has a cent to spare.
And we all know that pool of money would not be up for grabs if it were not for an election.
The other issue is the Liberals have just put out a budget. We know what they were planning to spend the money on, and where.
Sure, they can change some things up — but how many sweeteners can they really surprise us with?
So if they can't focus it on all the cash they want to drop, or their savings plans, that leaves policy.
The Liberals have already begun to rethink theirs.
Starting with privatisation.
The premier announced just last Saturday the Liberals will not privatise any state-owned companies, and will in fact legislate so a two-thirds majority of parliament is required to sell them.
Clearly they know going to an election with a "we want to explore privatisation" agenda is unlikely to win them many fans.
It was also one of the reasons listed on the no-confidence motion.
But how many other unpopular policies can they really rethink?
The May decision to walk away from a treaty process was deeply unpopular among some Aboriginal groups, but there's no policy fix for the bungled process around the new Spirit of Tasmania ferry terminal, for example.
The party's most unpopular position, an undying support for the almost billion-dollar Macquarie Point stadium, is unlikely to change.
Lucky for the Liberals, Labor has taken the same stance, so it can't be used against them by the only other party viable to form government.
But while the Liberals are trying to reconsider policies, Labor is going to need to come up with some (more).
The party has been grappling with being stuck in the political wilderness for over a decade now.
It lost the last election just 15 months ago. Badly. So, naturally, all policies are under review.
With a little more notice of this election, it might have spent some time polishing them off, but it is partially responsible for this mess after all.
When it comes to offering up something fresh, Labor's got the advantage of having a new leader, and as Dean Winter likes to remind everyone, "Labor has changed under me".
Now is his time to really prove it.
He certainly gained some kudos from the public for bringing the Spirit of Tasmania saga to light and has made it clear that the party backs workers. His mantra is almost "jobs, jobs, jobs".
But the party still needs to figure out its position on a lot of issues.
For example, just last month Mr Winter could not say if Labor was for or against a treaty.
His argument was he could not take a side without consultation, but the issue is not exactly new.
And Mr Winter has to transition from criticism to having solutions — fast. And answer questions such as whether Labor still wants to pause new permits for whole-home short-stay accommodation. Unclear.
Or, what the plan is to cut the amount the state pays on locum doctors?
Or, how it would go about closing the Ashley Youth Detention Centre if it's suddenly thrust into power.
It is also a rare day when the party talks about what used to be some of its core issues — health, housing and education.
And while Prime Minister Anthony Albanese talks about the need to balance industries and the environment, Mr Winter's pro-industry mantra can come across as "jobs at any cost".
But where there is a void, there is always someone else happy to fill it.
In this case, that is the Greens and other environmentally conscious crossbenchers.
The same goes for the stadium.
It is the crossbench who will be rewarded for their anti-stadium stance, and if the polls are anything to go by, it is a large crowd to capitalise on.
But for how many Tasmanians will the stadium be their number one issue?
Considering the Liberals' stuff-ups are fresh in people's minds, and Labor is copping a lot of the blame for the early election, the crossbench could very well benefit from voters' frustrations.
But Tasmanians annoyed about the election also have a reason to take their anger out on the crossbench.
Because, as much as the Greens and other independents like to spruik the power and benefits of minority parliament, most of them played a hand in blowing up that parliament less than halfway through its term.
How can voters trust that won't happen again soon?
Little about this election is going to be normal. But like it or not, in just over a month's time we're being dragged to the polls.
No-one is coming into this unscathed and the end result is still anyone's game.
Whatever the result, those 35 politicians owe it to Tasmanians to make it work for longer than 15 months, whatever it takes.