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Stocks close FY25 at new all-time high

Stocks close FY25 at new all-time high

Express Tribune13 hours ago

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The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) closed the 2024-25 fiscal year at a record high on Monday, where the benchmark KSE-100 index surged by a fresh 1,248 points, or 1%, and closed at 125,627.
Investor sentiment surged due to strong traded volumes following a $3.4 billion loan rollover by China, which boosted foreign currency reserves to over $14 billion, enabling the country to meet the IMF's reserves requirement.
Optimism about new policy reforms as well as Pakistan topping Global Emerging Market Rankings in Default Risk Reduction over the past year fuelled the bullish sentiment.
The benchmark index saw intra-day high of 1,369 points before closing a little lower with a gain of 1,248 points day-on-day.
According to Ahsan Mehanti of Arif Habib Corp, stocks hit a new all-time high at the year-end close, driven by record trade volumes following the rollover of $3.4 billion financing by China, which boosted foreign exchange reserves to over $14 billion, meeting the IMF's June 30 target and supporting rupee stability.
Additionally, an anticipated cut in industrial power tariffs, alongside government's deliberations on the privatisation of state-owned enterprises, and higher global equities played the role of catalysts in record close at the PSX, noted Mehanti.
In its review, Topline Securities commented that the local bourse wrapped up the fiscal year on a high note, carrying forward last week's bullish momentum with another stellar performance. The benchmark KSE-100 index soared to intra-day high of 1,369 points before closing with a gain of 1,248 points (up 1%) and settling at 125,627.
The upbeat sentiment was fuelled by strong fiscal year-end flows and a significant external trigger-China's rollover of $3.4 billion in commercial loans. This move helped Pakistan meet the IMF's foreign reserves requirement of around $14 billion, reinforcing investor confidence, added Topline.
Heavyweights like Fauji Fertiliser Company, HBL, Bank AL Habib, UBL, Pakistan Oilfields, Faysal Bank and Pakgen Power led the charge, which collectively contributed +724 points to the index, stated the brokerage.
Market participation remained robust with a total of 1,141 million shares traded and an overall traded value of Rs35.1 billion. Volume leader WorldCall Telecom saw an impressive 139.9 million shares change hands.
In terms of traded value, top contributors included Pakistan Aluminium Beverage Cans (Rs1.50 billion), Faysal Bank (Rs1.22 billion), National Foods (Rs1.10 billion), Oil and Gas Development Company (Rs957.9 million), Pakistan Petroleum (Rs789.5 million), Pakistan State Oil (Rs736.8 million) and Fauji Fertiliser Company (Rs659.9 million).
With sentiment riding high and macro support in place, the market appears well-positioned as it steps into the new fiscal year, remarked Topline.

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Consequently, inclusive of provincial tax revenues and the petroleum levy, which is effectively a tax, the national tax-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise to 13 percent of the GDP in 2025-26. The realization of this target will imply that since 2022-23 there will be a spectacular improvement in the overall tax-to-GDP ratio by almost 3 percent of the GDP. In the event this happens, the performance in the realm of public finances, especially of the FBR, will need to be fully recognized. However, the normal growth in FBR revenues is likely to be close to 12 percent, subject to the nominal GDP growth of 13 percent. Therefore, an additional increase of 10.5 percent is required through taxation measures in the federal budget. This is equivalent to Rs 1230 billion. The estimate of the likely generation of revenues from taxation measures and improvements in tax administration is close to Rs 650 billion. As such, there is a risk of a shortfall in FBR revenues of Rs 580 billion in 2025-26. 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