Islam Makhachev: Charles Oliveira has 'big chance' to upset Ilia Topuria at UFC 317
Islam Makhachev thinks sees the UFC 317 main event between Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira as a coin toss.
Topuria and Oliveira will fight for the vacant lightweight title left behind by Makhachev in his move to welterweight when they meet in Saturday's headliner at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas (ESPN+ pay-per-view, ESPN, ESPN+).
Makhachev will be watching closely to see who begins the next era at 155 pounds, but former featherweight champ Topuria (16-0 MMA, 8-0 UFC) enters as the heavy betting favorite over Oliveira (35-10 MMA, 23-10 UFC), who held the belt previously.
"It depends who can follow his game plan," Makhachev told MMA Junkie. "If Charles can take him down, he can finish him easy on the ground. Or, if Topuria can catch him, he's going to sleep. It's two options. Who is going to make the game plan work?"
Of the two, Makhachev has only shared the octagon with Oliveira. He submitted the Brazilian in a dominant performance for his first UFC title win in October 2022, and since then "Do Bronx" has won two of thee fights.
The undefeated record, punching power and stellar technique of Topuria can't be underestimated, but Makhachev sees traits from Oliveira that could open up his path to victory.
"(Oliveira has a) big chance," Makhachev said. "He always fights good against strikers. He has good striking. Against (Dustin) Poirier he fought good, against (Michael) Chandler he fought good – both have good punch, both very good at stand up. But if you give him small chance, he's going to finish. That's why Charles is always dangerous. So I'll go 50/50."
Although Topuria vs. Oliveira is one of the more anticipated matchups of the 2025 UFC schedule thus far, Makhachev (27-1 MMA, 16-1 UFC) couldn't help but take a jab at two men he's had contentious moments with in the past.
"I feel bad, man – nobody speak about International Fight Week," Makhachev joked. "Nobody speak about main event."
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