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In the Market-How the ghost of ‘transitory' inflation is haunting the rate debate
By Paritosh Bansal (Reuters) -Joseph Lavorgna, counselor to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, believes tariffs are not inflationary and says economists who have been predicting that prices would rise due to President Donald Trump's import duties are wrong. Where many such economists saw effects of tariffs in consumer price inflation data last week, Lavorgna was not persuaded. Economists had been predicting tariffs would show up in numbers month after month, but the data in aggregate has remained muted, he said. 'Almost every economist has gotten it wrong,' Lavorgna told me, and added that he and his colleagues in the administration felt that mainstream economists' analyses had been clouded by political bias. At any rate, he said, inflation is a perpetual rise in prices, rather than a one-time increase in price levels. 'To the extent there is a negative effect -- which we have yet to see -- it would be a one-off price level adjustment,' he said. Lavorgna's comments underscore how a debate over inflation is once again turning on the question of whether any price rise from Trump's tariffs would be fleeting or not. It's an echo of what happened after the COVID-19 pandemic, when the Fed thought inflation was transitory – and it turned out not to be. Now, while some administration officials and Fed governors expect any impact from tariffs to be temporary, other economists and market participants remain convinced that the president's conventional wisdom-defying policy could lead to bad outcomes, like slower growth and inflation. These people want to see more data as they argue that there are still many unknowns around inflation – it could rise in the coming months as much uncertainty remains around what the final tariffs would be; price increases could spill to other areas; and tariffs could cause inflation expectations to rise. There are also many unknowns about the eventual impact of the import duties – and other administration policies like those on immigration – on the economy. 'Even if you think of this as a one-time increase in costs, what is more likely to happen is that firms are not going to pass it on all at once,' said Alberto Cavallo, a Harvard University professor who has built a model to track the price impact of tariffs. 'They're going to do it gradually. And that gradualness tends to push inflation upward for a significant amount of time.' My colleagues at Reuters have developed a tracker to see how companies are responding to tariffs. What happens with inflation is of immense importance all around -- to global markets, investors and consumers, who endured hardship as easy monetary policies and supply chain disruptions following the COVID-19 pandemic led to inflation levels not seen in more than a generation. Unhappiness with high prices was as one of the reasons behind Trump winning the presidential elections. Trump has directed his ire over the disagreement on rates most intensely against Jay Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, leading some investors to worry about the independence of the central bank. With Trump calling for the central bank to cut rates by as much as 3 percentage points while the economy is still holding up, the risk, some economists and investors say, is that such a stimulus would bring a repeat of what happened after the pandemic. 'It makes sense for the Federal Reserve to wait and see before they make a big decision,' Cavallo said. CONTRADICTORY FINDINGS Cavallo's research, which is updated frequently to account for the changes in Trump's tariff levels, analyzes pricing on the websites of four large U.S. retailers. As of July 14, the analysis found 'rapid pricing responses, though their magnitude remains modest relative to the announced tariff rates and varies by country of origin.' The findings echo other attempts to unpack what's happening behind aggregate inflation numbers. A paper in May by Fed economists dug inside a closely watched inflation gauge called PCE. It showed tariffs on Chinese imports in February and March had already affected consumer prices. The administration, too, has done its own analyses and published a counterview to these findings earlier this month. Using techniques similar to the Fed paper, the Council of Economic Advisers, the White House's think-tank, found that prices of imported goods had fallen this year. None of the papers provide a comprehensive view of what's happening, however, and acknowledge various limitations of their findings. The debate over the effect of tariffs is also starting to divide Fed officials. Fed Governor Chris Waller, who is seen as a potential candidate to succeed Powell, for example, favors a rate cut at the July meeting because he feels the tariffs are likely to have a limited impact on inflation, and he is concerned the economy and private sector hiring are starting to slow. Others, like New York Fed President John Williams, have professed caution, saying it was still early days. "Comments coming from Fed officials suggest that the FOMC is cleaving," Thierry Wizman, Global FX & Rates strategist at Macquarie Group, wrote in a note on Friday, referring to the central bank panel that sets monetary policy. Should it persist, it could "evolve into a split along political lines, with one side swayed by political motives, and the need to accommodate fiscal policy, at the expense of adherence to the price stability mandate." "This would contribute to U.S. yield-curve steepening," Wizman wrote. 擷取數據時發生錯誤 登入存取你的投資組合 擷取數據時發生錯誤 擷取數據時發生錯誤 擷取數據時發生錯誤 擷取數據時發生錯誤
Yahoo
5 minutes ago
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Takeaways from AP's report about cuts to government grants for nonprofits
President Donald Trump's policies are poised to upend decades of partnerships the federal government has built with nonprofits to help people in their communities. Since the 1960s, presidential administrations from both parties have used taxpayer dollars to fund nonprofits to take on social problems and deliver services. A vast and interconnected set of federal grants fund public safety programs, early childhood education, food assistance and refugee resettlement services in every state. In January, the Trump administration sought to freeze federal grants and loans. Nonprofit groups immediately challenged the move and won a court-ordered pause. But in the six months since, the administration has cut, frozen or discontinued many federal grant programs across agencies. An analysis by the Urban Institute provides a sense of the scale and reach of government support for nonprofits. Published in February, the data comes from the tax forms nonprofits file where they report any government grants they receive. In response to questions about the cuts to grant funding, White House spokesperson Kush Desai said, "Instead of government largesse that's often riddled with corruption, waste, fraud, and abuse, the Trump administration is focused on unleashing America's economic resurgence to fuel Americans' individual generosity.' How much support does the government give to nonprofits? The Urban Institute found $267 billion was granted to nonprofits from all levels of government — federal, state and local — in 2021, the most recent year a comprehensive set of nonprofit tax forms are available. That figure underestimates the total funding nonprofits receive from the government. It includes grants, but not contracts for services nor reimbursements from programs like Medicare. It also excludes the smallest nonprofits, which file a different, abbreviated tax form. The data includes all tax-exempt organizations that file a full tax return from local food pantries to universities and nonprofit hospitals. But government funding does not just go to the largest organizations. A majority of nonprofits in the dataset across every sector, from the arts to the environment to human services, report receiving government grants. In most places, the typical nonprofit would run a deficit without government funding. The Urban Institute cautions that just because a nonprofit would run a budget deficit without government funding, it does not necessarily mean the nonprofit will close. Even in wealthy areas, nonprofits would struggle without government support In only two Congressional districts — one that includes parts of Orange County, California, and one in the suburbs west of Atlanta — would typical nonprofits not be in the red if they lost all of their public grant funding, the analysis found. However, funders in Orange County warn that nonprofits are not as optimistic about their resiliency. Taryn Palumbo, executive director of Orange County Grantmakers, said local nonprofits "are seeing their budgets getting slashed by 50% or 40%.' Last year, a large local foundation, Samueli Foundation, commissioned a study of nonprofit needs because they were significantly increasing their grantmaking from $18.8 million in 2022 to an estimated $125 million in 2025. They found local nonprofits reported problems maintaining staff, a deep lack of investment in their operations and a dearth of flexible reserve funds. The foundation responded by opening applications for unrestricted grants and to support investments in buildings or land. Against this $10 million in potential awards, they received 1,242 applications for more than $250 million, said Lindsey Spindle, the foundation's president. 'It tells a really stark picture of how unbelievably deep and broad the need is,' Spindle said. 'There is not a single part of the nonprofit sector that has not responded to these funds. Every topic you can think of: poverty, animal welfare, arts and culture, civil rights, domestic abuse.' Private donations can't replace government support The nonprofit Friendship Shelter helps house and support 330 people in Laguna Beach, California, which falls within Orange County. Dawn Price, its executive director, said the organization has an annual budget of about $15 million, $11.5 million of which comes from government sources. Price said the government funding is 'braided' in complex ways to support different programs and fill in gaps. Private donors already subsidize their government grants, which she said pay for 69% of the actual program costs. 'We are providing this service to our government at a loss, at a business loss, and then making up that loss with these Medicaid dollars and also the private fundraising,' she said. Even in a wealthy place like Orange County, Price said she does not believe private donors are prepared to give five, six or eight times as much as they do currently if new cuts to government grants occur or programs are not renewed. ___ Associated Press coverage of philanthropy and nonprofits receives support through the AP's collaboration with The Conversation US, with funding from Lilly Endowment Inc. The AP is solely responsible for this content. For all of AP's philanthropy coverage, visit Solve the daily Crossword
Yahoo
5 minutes ago
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Karoline Leavitt Is Asked If Trump Is Serious About Blocking Commanders Stadium Deal
WASHINGTON — A day after Donald Trump threatened to hold up a deal for a new football stadium in the nation's capital if the Washington Commanders did not go back to the name Redskins, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the president's comments were not a joke. 'The president was serious,' Leavitt told reporters Monday while answering questions on the White House driveway. 'And it's part of the art of the deal, part of his negotiating skills as you know. Sports is one of the many passions of this president and he wants to see the name of that team changed.' Asked why he's getting involved, Leavitt called Trump a 'nontraditional president' and said sports fans are behind him on this. 'I think you've seen the president gets involved in a lot of things that most presidents have not,' Leavitt said. 'He's a nontraditional president. He likes to see results on behalf of the American people and, if you actually poll this issue with sports fans across the country, and even in this city, people actually do support the president's position on this and the name change.' After former President Joe Biden signed a bill passed by Congress late last year to transfer land from the federal government to the District of Columbia, D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser and the team reached an agreement in April to build on the site of the old RFK Stadium. That is still pending approval by the Council of the District of Columbia. 'I think the thing that we should focus on in D.C. is doing our part,' Bowser said. 'I have worked for the better part of 10 years to get our part completed, including getting control of the land, coming to an agreement with the team and advancing a fantastic agreement to the council, so we need to do our part.' Dan Snyder, who had said multiple times as owner since 1999 that he would never change the name, did so in July 2020 after facing mounting pressure from sponsors and critics. Washington Football Team was used for two seasons before Commanders was unveiled as the permanent name in early 2022. Josh Harris, whose group bought the team from Snyder in 2023, said earlier this year the Commanders name was here to stay. Savannah Romero, co-founder and deputy director of the Black Liberation-Indigenous Sovereignty Collective, said in a statement Monday responding to Trump that 'Native Americans are not mascots.' 'To equate Native people with cartoonish mascots alongside animals is a gross and ongoing tactic of dehumanization,' said Romero, who is an enrolled member of the Eastern Shoshone Nation. The National Congress of American Indians has since 1950 considered eradicating Native-themed mascots one of its priorities. President Mark Macarro called any attempt to purport to speak for Native communities 'an affront to tribal sovereignty.' 'Imagery and fan behaviors that mock, demean, and dehumanize Native people have no place in modern society,' Macarro said in a statement. 'NCAI will continue to stand in support of the dignity and humanity of Native peoples.' At least one organization, the Native American Guardians Association, has filed petitions to bring back the Redskins and Cleveland Indians names. A handful of fans who were asked by The Associated Press for their opinion generally dismissed Trump's comments. Ender Tuncay, who grew up in the Washington area and returns to visit family, called it 'typical Trump stupidity.' 'It's just him focusing on things that aren't consequential and trying to distract from the actual issues that are going on,' Tuncay said, adding he does not care what the name is. 'But I'd like them to get the new stadium, for sure. I like this site where it is. My parents used to tell me stories of how great RFK was back when we were really, really good.' Ford Flemmings, who worked as a vendor at the old RFK Stadium, said everyone is on the bandwagon with the name Commanders now that the team is winning. 'I liked Washington when it was just plain Washington,' Flemmings said. 'If they change their name, so be it. I'll still be a Washington (fan), whatever the Washington team is.' Related... Trump Makes Ominous Threat To Washington Commanders Social Media Wonders Why Trump Suddenly Cares About Washington Commanders Team Name NFL Rookie Sensation Stuns Top Seed Lions In Playoffs
