How France's recognition of the state of Palestine could shift Middle East dynamics
In a world where nations are again using military force to impose their will on others — notably Russia in Ukraine, and the U.S. and Israel with their recent strikes on Iran and its nuclear facilities — French President Emmanuel Macron is attempting to strike a blow for diplomacy and its inherent idea that war, ultimately, rarely brings peace.
With less than two years left of his second and last term as president, Macron also has his legacy to think about. Not acting decisively as a humanitarian disaster unfolds in Gaza could, when history books are written, be a stain.
Macron has levers to influence world affairs as leader of a nuclear-armed, economically and diplomatically powerful country that also sits at the big table at the United Nations, as one of the five permanent members of its security council.
Being the first and, for the moment, only member of the G7 group of industrialized nations to take this leap carries domestic risks. Presiding over a country with both Europe's largest Jewish population and largest Muslim population in western Europe, Macron is on a public opinion tightrope. His words will please some voters but infuriate others — a fact reflected by deeply divided political reactions in France to his decision announced on X on Thursday evening.
But after staunchly backing Israel's right to defend itself against Hamas and its Oct. 7, 2023, attack that triggered the war, Macron is signaling that France's support can only go so far.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denounced the shift by one of his country's closer allies in Europe. 'Such a move rewards terror and risks creating another Iranian proxy, just as Gaza became,' he said in a statement. 'A Palestinian state in these conditions would be a launch pad to annihilate Israel — not to live in peace beside it.''
A step but not a magic wand
The idea that Palestinians and Israelis could live side by side in peace in their own states has perhaps never looked more unrealistic — with Gaza in ruins and the occupied West Bank facing increasing settlement by Israelis. Macron's words alone won't change that. Still, the French leader's message is that the hope of a 'two-state solution' achieved through diplomacy must not be allowed to die — however unattainable it may seem.
'This solution is the only path that can address the legitimate aspirations of both the Israelis and the Palestinians. It must now be brought about as quickly as possible,' Macron said in a letter to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas which confirmed his decision to recognize Palestine as a state.
'The prospect of a negotiated solution to the conflict in the Middle East seems increasingly distant. I cannot resign myself to that,' he said.
The first impacts are likeliest not in Gaza but in world capitals where leaders may face pressure or feel emboldened to follow France's lead. Attention is focusing on other G7 nations, because of their economic and diplomatic sway.
'Macron's declaration could create a precedent because it would be the first Western country in the G7 to do so, which could have the effect of leading others,' said David Rigoulet-Roze, a researcher at the French Institute of Strategic Analysis.
Although more than 140 countries recognize Palestine as a state, France will be the biggest, most populous and most powerful among those in Europe that have taken this step.
'It creates some small momentum,' said Yossi Mekelberg, a senior consulting fellow at the Chatham House think tank in London who also added, however, that 'this is not enough.'
"France should be congratulated, and Macron should be congratulated for doing that and showing the courage,' he said.
A shift in the balance of big powers
Until now, China and Russia were the only permanent members of the U.N. Security Council that recognized Palestinian statehood. France will join them when Macron makes good on his promise in September at the U.N. General Assembly. The new trio will leave the U.S. and the U.K. in a security council minority as its only permanent members that don't recognize Palestine as a state.
The so-called P5 nations are divided on many other issues — including Ukraine, trade and climate change — so France's shift isn't, in itself, likely to spur radical and rapid change for Palestinians. Still, if only mathematically, the U.S. — Israel's most important ally — and the U.K could find themselves more isolated among the big powers in any discussions on solutions for the Middle East.
U.S. President Donald Trump dismissed Macron's decision on Friday, saying 'What he says doesn't matter. It's not going to change anything.'
France may have better traction with the U.K. Putting Brexit behind them, the U.K. and France are now drawing closer, most notably in support for Ukraine. If British Prime Minister Keir Starmer follows Macron's example, Trump could become the odd man out on Palestinian statehood among the security council's big five powers.
Starmer has signaled growing disquiet over the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, saying in a statement Thursday that suffering and starvation there 'is unspeakable and indefensible.' But he doesn't seem ready to take a leap like Macron, suggesting that fighting must stop first.
'Statehood is the inalienable right of the Palestinian people,' Starmer said. 'A ceasefire will put us on a path to the recognition of a Palestinian state and a two-state solution.'
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