UFC Vegas 107 predictions, odds, full card preview: Is Maycee Barber a real title challenger?

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3 days ago

The future could finally be now for Maycee Barber, starting at UFC Vegas 107.
Barber takes on her fellow top-ranked flyweight contender in Saturday night's UFC main event. A win would extend her hot streak to seven straight, and though Barber may not have fulfilled her goal of becoming the youngest UFC champion of all time, it'd put her at the forefront of title talks. On the other side, Erin Blanchfield can steal that shine, re-cementing herself as a future star of the division.
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UFC Vegas 107 is nothing to write home about, but the main event is excellent, and a handful of other notable contenders are in action as well. We'll leave it at that, but that doesn't mean we don't have predictions to make, folks.
👑 UFC Vegas 107's lineup Crown grade: D. 👑
Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Erin Blanchfield plans to get back on a winning streak at the expense of Maycee Barber. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
(Jeff Bottari via Getty Images)
125 pounds: Erin Blanchfield (-250) vs. Maycee Barber (+200)
As much as I'd love to see UFC Vegas 107's main event in an arena full of fans on a PPV main card or something like that, I am glad that the ladies will have five potential rounds to work with.
Let's start there, and throw out the fact that this is Barber's first five-round fight of her 16-fight career. Despite Barber's cardio having shown no problematic signs thus far, she stylistically will have an uphill battle if the fight drags out. Blanchfield is a relentless force on the ground, and that factor, along with her activity advantage, is surely what gives her the edge in the eyes of the oddsmakers.
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I've been high on Blanchfield since day one, when she was showing early BJJ supremacy and winning her way to an Eddie Bravo Invitational championship at age 19. It's been ride or die en route to the top of the mountain, and she was right there, ready to challenge for gold had she gotten past Manon Fiorot in March 2024. The unanimous decision defeat ultimately may have been worth it, as Blanchfield was proven unready for a moment like that. Still just 26, her rebound win over former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas last November was a good appetizer to build back toward this inevitable Barber collision.
The flyweight contenders were booked to fight in late 2021 and only found heaps of success afterward, with fans wondering how it would have played out. Barber has consistently proven to be one of the most aggressive and damaging strikers at 125 pounds. Her nasty clinch work and power combinations give anyone fits, making for a vast area of contention when she and Blanchfield meet in the pocket.
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This fight boils down to how much damage Blanchfield can endure and how many takedowns Barber can defend. In the latter case, she'll want to avoid as many as possible because her chances of surviving submissions or getting controlled are worse than Barber's ability to withstand punishment.
Although she's on a great six-fight winning streak, Barber has been taken down by all of those opponents. At first glance, I actually leaned Barber in this matchup, which is something I'd never have done until the Blanchfield vs. Fiorot fight. However, the extra time and Barber's suspect grappling defense keep me in favor of New Jersey's flyweight phenom.
Pick: Blanchfield
155 pounds: Mateusz Gamrot (-170) vs. L'udovit Klein (+140)
Does anyone else smell a trap fight in UFC Vegas 107's co-main event?
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Mateusz Gamrot is one of the best lightweight fighters on the planet and should be fighting fights that show the world as much. That's no offense to L'udovit Klein, it's just the truth. Gamrot, quite literally, is so good that no one in the top 15 wanted to fight him for his No. 7 spot. That includes the No. 1 Arman Tsarukyan, who is being forced to re-earn his title shot, and who also saw his last loss come from Gamrot.
The lightweight division is just all sorts of messed up right now.
Regardless, we have what should be a great matchup despite the odd optics. Gamrot is technically masterful and sharp in every aspect of MMA, making him a problem for everyone. Klein is equally well-rounded and talented in his own right; he'll just be a step behind in this one, requiring a finish to secure the win. Unfortunately for him, Gamrot has never been finished.
Pick: Gamrot
170 pounds: Ramiz Brahimaj (+300) vs. Billy Ray Goff (-375)
I don't know when it happened, but Billy Goff added "Ray" to his name somewhere along the way.
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It's been over a year since Goff last fought, coming up short in his sophomore Octagon appearance vs. Trey Waters. Meanwhile, Ramiz Brahimaj fought the week after Goff, dropping a unanimous decision to Themba Gorimbo before he knocked out Mickey Gall in November.
Brahimaj has been as hot-and-cold as it gets since 2018. He's alternated wins and losses in his last 10 fights, winning his matchups with opponents who arguably aren't quite UFC caliber. The 26-year-old Goff has primarily been a finishing machine the past five years, and while stopping Brahimaj will be no easy task, the overall complete game of Goff should be too much for the inconsistent Brahimaj.
Pick: Goff
Dustin Jacoby is in the lone light heavyweight bout of the night at UFC Vegas 107. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)
(Chris Unger via Getty Images)
205 pounds: Dustin Jacoby (-200) vs. Bruno Lopes (+165)
The light heavyweight division has been weird since Jon Jones left it in the dust five years back. Let's look at the 37-year-old former GLORY Kickboxing champ Dustin Jacoby as a prime example. Right when you think the Marc Montoya product might be done, he goes out and puts away the 27-year-old Vitor Petrino in style last December.
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On the other hand, Bruno Lopes is somewhat of a sneaky rising prospect in the 205-pound ranks, riding a solid three-fight winning streak with only a single loss in his 15-fight career. In terms of pure striking, Jacoby should be able to control this matchup and do as he pleases. Lopes has just proven to be more dangerous in all areas of MMA. His last win over the previously undefeated Magomed Gadzhiyasulov was somewhat of an eye-opener as well.
I'm surprised the oddsmakers are giving the edge to Jacoby, but ultimately, I expect Lopes to wear down the seasoned veteran.
Pick: Lopes
135 pounds: Ketlen Vieira (+110) vs. Macy Chiasson (-135)
Why settle for one "Macy" when we can have two? That was the matchmakers' thoughts going into UFC Vegas 107, anyway. That's right. Macy Chiasson is also in action this weekend, friends.
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One of my proudest predictions of 2024 was Chiasson's war with Mayra Bueno Silva delivering at UFC 303 last June. The win was so good that Chiasson finds herself favored going into an extremely difficult bout with Brazil's Ketlen Vieira.
At this stage in, let's just say life, what more can be said about women's bantamweight? It simply is what it is — and that isn't necessarily good compared to its arrival in the UFC. These are two of the division's consistent best, though. Had some decisions been judged slightly differently, we'd be having some very different conversations about how the title scene shook out, particularly regarding Vieira.
Chiasson has been massive for the division since she dropped from featherweight, but that's not to say she'll outsize Vieira. We've often seen Chiasson bully and batter her opponents with strikes, clinching or at distance. Her grappling has improved tremendously since she won The Ultimate Fighter 28 in 2018. However, Vieira is one of the best "nullifiers" south of 145. Her mix of judo and wrestling has been problematic for anyone less than superior to her in those realms (like Kayla Harrison), but she can be inactive with her damage output.
Tactically, Vieira just has a tighter overall package to her MMA craft. Chiasson is the more dangerous, but she will have to fight for her breathing room to unleash offense.
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Pick: Vieira
185 pounds: Zachary Reese (-250) vs. Dusko Todorovic (+200)
Fights don't get much more "must-win" than this for Dusko Todorovic.
"Thunder" started his career a perfect 10-0, reaching that mark with his UFC debut in 2020. He's now 12-5 and had his chin shattered in four of those losses. It's somewhat surprising that he's still getting another shot off the heels of back-to-back first-round knockout losses. The dude goes out on his shield, and that makes for a great highlight booster. You hate to say that, but that's the reality of the situation.
Zachary Reese has also only lost by knockout, dropping two of his 10 career fights. He just hasn't been bolted as often and brutally as Todorovic. That's damage accumulation, folks. We're not getting too deep with this one. Todorovic simply won't be able to take as much damage as Reese at the speed at which they'll collide.
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Pick: Reese
Allan Nascimento seeks his third straight win at UFC Vegas 107. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)
(Chris Unger via Getty Images)
Preliminary notes
I had thought it had been a minute since Allan Nascimento fought. Then his record swiftly reminded me of the myriad of cancellations he's had, keeping him out of action since January 2023. Put the inactivity aside, you'll easily forget how legit the guy is because of it.
Other than the Charles Oliveira teammate, I'll highlight another Brazilian in the former Invicta FC atomweight champion Rayanne dos Santos. It's been an incredibly demoralizing start to dos Santos' UFC career, losing back-to-back split decisions she very easily should have or could have won. Regardless, she's clearly much better at 105 pounds, but a loss to Alice Ardelean would permanently kill her UFC career. (As a strawweight.)
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Quick picks:
Allan Nascimento (-150) def. Jafel Filho (+125)
Jordan Leavitt (-220) def. Kurt Holobaugh (+180)
Andreas Gustafsson (-170) def. Trevin Giles (+140)
Bolaji Oki (-350) def. Michael Aswell (+275)
Rayanne dos Santos (-275) def. Alice Ardelean (+220)