China's rise: stabilising the global order or sparking a major shake-up?
The Shanghai skyline. PHOTO: REUTERS
You do not go from Mao suits to luxury malls without shaking up the global order.
In just a few decades, China has catapulted from post-revolutionary poverty to boardroom dominance.
It is impossible to ignore it; economically, diplomatically and militarily, China is everywhere. But the million-dollar question that seems to haunt many gatherings these days is whether China's spectacular rise is making the world more stable or just more nervous?
China had a turning point in 1978. Deng Xiaoping began economic reforms that ripped down the barriers of central planning with the catchphrase "To get rich is glorious," which would make Wall Street blush.
Ideological inflexibility was replaced by foreign wealth. China began constructing the mall rather than merely opening stores.
The outcome? Unprecedented. Decades of GDP growth of almost 10% annually. Hundreds of millions of people were lifted from poverty. The establishment of a European-sized middle class.
And instead of retreating once the Cold War ended, China leaned in with strategic diplomacy, World Trade Organisation participation and a rebranding initiative known as the "peaceful rise". No tanks, no invasions, just trade agreements and infrastructure projects.
And here is where the stabilising argument kicks in.
China is the top trade partner of more than 120 countries. That is a deterrent as well as being remarkable. Very few states want to risk a conflict with their largest buyer, logistics centre or lender. When your GDP depends on Chinese demand, you think twice before picking a fight.
China is also a skilled diplomat player. From the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership to Asean to its United Nations role, Beijing has made significant investments to project an image of being a positive global force.
In its foreign policy, it promotes "win-win co-operation," non-interference and multipolarity — a world where many people shape it rather than just one sheriff (read: United States of America). That appeals to many states that are fed up with American hyprocrisy and lecturing.
Even China's unwavering adherence to sovereignty, which it holds dear, has helped to stabilise some areas by preventing outside interference. Beijing steers clear of messy wars in favour of regional discussions and infrastructure agreements.
That strikes many as a
welcome diversion from what are often seen in the Global South as the interfering tendencies of the West.
But as you flip the coin, the fissures become visible.
Let's start with Beijing's outlandish claim to much of the South China Sea. A peaceful rise? When China is displaying naval might, erecting runways on contested reefs and brandishing old maps as if they override international law, it is a difficult sell.
The Philippines and Vietnam, for example, were concerned rather than reassured. As a result, the US has shifted its military priorities to Asia and strengthened its partnerships.
Then there is Taiwan. Both the military exercises and Beijing's rhetoric are becoming more confrontational. When aircraft carriers are used to support peaceful reunion, such a goal has a hollow ring to it. That is a conflict just waiting to happen; it is not stability.
The Belt and Road Initiative is a trillion-dollar infrastructure dream on paper. In actuality? Sometimes it is a disguised debt trap.
Ask Sri Lanka, which, due to its failure to repay loans, was forced to cede a major port to China for 99 years. Economic development is not what happens when nations lose control of important assets; rather, it is geopolitical leverage disguised as investment.
And do not forget the power competition with the US. We are not yet in a full-blown great power showdown, but the vibes are definitely chilly.
Global alliances are already changing as a result of trade disputes, hi-tech prohibitions and military posture. Nations torn between Washington's security umbrella and Beijing's cheque book are forced to choose a side, which never works out well.
Where does this leave us, then?
The truth is China's rise is a double-edged sword. It offers trade, connection, new diplomatic options and fresh perspectives on world leadership, but it also carries with it economic reliance, strategic rivalries and territorial disputes. Indeed, the world is more interconnected, but it is also more vulnerable.
What comes next depends less on China and more on how the rest of us respond. Will we engage where interests align and push back where values clash? Or will we sleepwalk into another great power standoff, trading Cold War 1.0 for a glossier sequel?
Whether the future leans towards collaboration or conflict will depend on how we, including New Zealand, respond to that increase. It is a tightrope walk on a global scale; if we tip one way, we make progress together; if we tip the other way, we face a showdown of the 21st century.
This is a test of the wisdom of the world, not simply of China's intentions.
■ Mercy Mikaele Fonoti is a master of international studies student at the University of Otago.
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