Can Mark Carney defeat Canadian populism?

CBC

2 days ago

Speaking to reporters after the speech from the throne on Tuesday, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre struck a decidedly institutionalist tone.
"We joined today in thanking His Majesty for coming to Canada and delivering the throne speech, reinforcing our ancient, great British liberties," he said. "A parliamentary system that goes back 800 years. A system that has served Canada well and has been the foundation of what I love to call the Canadian promise."
A Conservative praising the monarch might not seem unusual. Former foreign affairs minister John Baird, a close ally of Poilievre's, once demanded that his department hang a portrait of the Queen in the foyer of its headquarters.
But support for the monarchy among Conservative voters seems to have slipped in recent years. Pollara recently found Conservatives are evenly split on Canada remaining a constitutional monarchy and the Angus Reid Institute says the share of Conservatives supporting the monarchy has fallen from 53 per cent in 2016 to 30 per cent now.
More than that, Poilievre has enthusiastically embraced the modern style of populism. He has thrived on conflict and for the last three years has held himself out as a politician ready to do battle with the system — aligning himself with the self-styled "freedom convoy," vowing to fire the governor of the Bank of Canada and do battle with "elites," "gatekeepers" "liberal media" and "woke ideology" on behalf of the "common people."
WATCH | Poilievre on the throne speech:
Poilievre says King's throne speech reaffirmed Canada's traditions
4 days ago
Duration 1:17
Following the throne speech, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre emphasized the importance of strengthening Canada's relationship with the U.K. and reminding the world of the countries' shared traditions.
Given the willingness of Poilievre and other Conservatives to challenge the Speaker and push the limits of acceptable behaviour in the House of Commons, it's also interesting to see Poilievre praising the parliamentary system.
But is it possible that the visit of King Charles — in addition to asserting Canada's sovereignty and reminding Canadians of the unique history and enduring institutions that underpin this country's democracy — also marked the end of Canada's brief populist moment?
It is, of course, far too early to draw any such conclusion — not least because Poilievre's Conservatives are still just a month removed from winning 41 per cent of the popular vote.
One way or another, the ultimate fate of the populist appeal in Canada may really depend on what His Majesty's government does next.
Can Carney show the system works?
Mark Carney might seem like exactly the wrong sort of character to battle populism. When he was first rumoured as a potential successor to Justin Trudeau, it was easy to imagine that Poilievre would have a relatively easy time running an anti-elite campaign against a former Goldman Sachs banker.
The return of Donald Trump and his threats against Canada obviously changed the electoral calculus for at least a plurality of voters. But before the Trump question came to dominate his campaign, Carney seemed to understand that he was facing an electorate that was disenchanted with the way things worked — or rather, didn't work.
"The system, it's not working as it should and it's not working as it could," Carney said in Edmonton when he declared his candidacy for leadership of the Liberal Party. "People are anxious. And no wonder. Too many are falling behind. Too many young people can't afford a home. Too many people can't find a doctor."
Carney noted that technological change, climate change and now Trump were adding to the sense of uncertainty. But he also drew a line between himself and Poilievre's contention that Canada was "broken" — comparing Poilievre to the United Kingdom's Conservatives.
"Conservatives don't run around saying Canada is broken because they want to fix it," Carney said. "They want a license to demolish and destroy, including many of the things on which we all depend. Because populists don't understand how our economy and our society actually works."
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One way Carney could make the case against demolition and destruction is by demonstrating that the system can work better. And the most tangible way to do that might be to address the concerns of those young people who can't afford a home.
In this spring's election, Carney's Liberals effectively battled Poilievre's Conservatives to a draw on housing, at least limiting the advantage that the Conservatives could have had on the issue. And Liberal re-election hopes may hinge on their ability to show real progress toward solving the housing crisis — a crisis that Carney has promised to meet with speed and force.
But even if the Carney government is able to make good on his promise to rapidly increase construction and reduce the cost of housing, would successfully addressing that issue — and others like it — be enough to turn back the populist wave that seemed, until a few months ago, to be washing over Canadian politics?
Will Trump discredit populism?
As populist parties and politicians have made advances globally — in places like the United States and the United Kingdom — there has been debate about whether their supporters are driven by economic frustrations or cultural issues. The answer might ultimately prove to be some combination of the two. But at the very least, addressing issues like housing might weaken the underlying appeal or logic of populism.
Beyond housing, it might help the anti-populist cause if Carney can find ways to reinforce trust in government or demonstrably work across party lines (at least at the provincial level). Whether inspired by their reverence for the monarchy or not, Conservatives themselves could also decide to move away from some of its populist elements.
But could Donald Trump actually now prove to be the greatest force working against populism in Canada?
Trump's unavoidable presence and glaring example could conceivably have two impacts on Canadian politics.
First, it might discredit — or harden opposition against — the populist style of politics in the eyes of many Canadians. At the very least, we have already seen Poilievre forced to grapple with accusations that he is too much like Trump — with non-Conservative voters largely coalescing behind Carney and the Liberals.
Second, the direct threat Trump poses to Canada and the wider instability he is causing may be changing what Canadian voters want. After last month's election result, David Coletto of Abacus Data argued that the predominant mood in Canada had shifted from anger to seeking stability — and speculated that the "age of rage" may have given way to the "age of reassurance."
But whatever the Trump effect turns out to be, a lot may still depend on how well non-populist governments and leaders make the case against populism. Trump may have reset Canadian politics, but if reassurance doesn't come, rage may be harder to hold back.