Exchange-Traded Funds, Equity Futures Higher Pre-Bell Monday Amid US-EU Tariff Deal Reports
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Yahoo
14 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Asia shares sideswiped by US economic jitters, oil slips
By Wayne Cole SYDNEY (Reuters) -Asian share markets followed Wall Street lower on Monday as fears for the U.S. economy returned with a vengeance, spurring investors to price in an almost certain rate cut for September and undermining the dollar. Some early resilience in U.S. stock futures and a continued retreat in oil prices did help limit the losses, but the bleak message from the July payrolls report was hard to ignore. Not only had revisions meant payrolls were 290,000 below where investors had thought they would be, but the three-month average slowed to just 35,000 from 231,000 at the start of the year. "The report brings payroll growth closer in line with big data indicators of job gains and the broader growth dataset, both of which have slowed significantly in recent months," noted analysts at Goldman Sachs. "Taken together, the economic data confirm our view that the U.S. economy is growing at a below-potential pace." Neither did the reaction of President Donald Trump instil confidence, as the firing of the head of Labor Statistics threatened to undermine confidence in U.S. economic data. Likewise, news that Trump would get to fill a governorship position at the Federal Reserve early added to worries about the politicisation of interest rate policy. Analysts assume the appointee will be loyal to Trump alone, though the president did grudgingly concede that Fed Chair Jerome Powell would likely see out his term. "It opens the prospect of broader support on the Fed Board for lower rates sooner rather than later," said Ray Attrill, head of FX research at NAB. "Fed credibility, and the veracity of the statistics on which they base their policy decisions, are both now under the spotlight." Markets moved quickly to price in a lot more easing with the probability of a September rate cut swinging to 90%, from 40% before the jobs report. Futures extended the rally on Monday to imply 65 basis points of easing by year-end, compared to 33 basis points pre-data. Markets have essentially already eased for the Fed with two-year Treasury yields down another 4 basis points at 3.661%. They tumbled almost 25 basis points on Friday in the biggest one-day drop since August last year. DOLLAR DENTED The prospect of lower borrowing costs offered some support for equities and S&P 500 futures inched up 0.1%, while Nasdaq futures rose 0.2%. Asian share markets, however, were still catching up with Friday's retreat and the Nikkei fell 2.1%, while South Korea dipped 0.2%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan broke the mould and firmed 0.3%. Wall Street has also taken comfort in an upbeat results season. Around two-thirds of the S&P 500 have reported and 63% have beaten forecasts. Earnings growth is estimated at 9.8%, up from 5.8% at the start of July. Companies reporting this week include Disney, McDonald's, Caterpillar and some of the large pharmaceutical groups. The dismal U.S. jobs data did put a dent in the dollar's crown of exceptionalism, snuffing out what had been a promising rally for the currency. The dollar dipped 0.1% to 147.24 yen, having shed an eye-watering 2.3% on Friday, while the euro stood at $1.1585 after bouncing 1.5% on Friday. The dollar index was pinned at 98.659, having been toppled from last week's top of 100.250. Sterling was more restrained at $1.3287 as markets are 87% priced for the Bank of England to cut rates by a quarter point at a meeting on Thursday. The BoE board itself is expected to remain split on easing, while markets still favour two further cuts by the middle of next year. In commodity markets, gold was flat at $3,361 an ounce, having climbed more than 2% on Friday. [GOL/] Oil prices extended their latest slide as OPEC+ agreed to another large rise in output for September, which completely reverses last year's cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day. [O/R] Brent dropped 0.6% to $69.24 a barrel, while U.S. crude also fell 0.6% to $66.93 per barrel. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
14 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures climb with tariffs and jobs data in focus
US stock futures made gains Sunday evening as Wall Street regrouped amid a slew of fresh headwinds, including disappointing labor data and continuing trade uncertainty. Futures tied to the S&P 500 (ES=F) climbed 0.2% while contracts on the Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) rose 0.3% and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) moved up 0.1%. The modest moves follow a sharp pullback on Wall Street on Friday. All three major indexes posted their worst weekly declines in months, ending a run of positive market moves. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 2.4%, marking its steepest drop since late May. The Dow (^DJI) slumped 2.9% in its worst week since early April, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) shed 2.2%. The declines were exacerbated Friday after July's jobs report came in weaker than expected, and previous months' tallies were revised sharply lower, flipping the narrative on the labor market's strength. It led President Trump to lash out at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which publishes the monthly jobs report, and fire its commissioner, creating further uncertainty. Trump's battle with the Fed and Chair Jerome Powell has also remained in focus. Traders tempered expectations around interest rate policy following the bank's decision last week to leave rates unchanged for a fifth consecutive meeting. But after the weak jobs data, almost 90% of bets are on a cut in September. At the same time, investors are examining fallout from Trump's implementation of tariffs. The updated tariffs set to come into full effect this week range from 10% to 41% on a wide range of trading partners and raise concerns about rising costs amid broader inflationary pressures. Read more: The latest on Trump's tariffs Earnings season continues to roll on with a busy week of corporate releases. Over 100 S&P 500 companies are set to report, with spotlights on Palantir (PLTR), Eli Lilly (LLY), and Disney (DIS). Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
CNBC
16 minutes ago
- CNBC
CNBC Daily Open: There's no return policy for jobs numbers
After U.S. jobs figures for May and June were revised significantly downward by the Bureau of Labor Statistics — slashing a combined 258,000 from previous figures — President Donald Trump, imputing political bias and data manipulation to BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, revised her employment status to "terminated." Government officials from both sides of the political aisle had plenty to say about that. "Bottom line, Trump wants to cook the books," said Ron Wyden, the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee. Meanwhile, Republican Senator Rand Paul told NBC News that "you can't really make the numbers different or better by firing the people doing the counting." The move, indeed, does have a whiff of the Chinese government, in August 2023, stopping the release of youth unemployment rates because they were spiking to record highs. (Beijing resumed disseminating the data in January 2024.) A falling tree makes a sound, regardless of whether there's anyone around to hear it. Terminating the person who reports that noise won't suck sound waves back into a vacuum either. Markets, too, were vocal in their response to Trump's firing of McEntarfer as well as the dismal jobs report. On Friday, the three major U.S. indexes had their worst day in months, a sharp turn from the week prior, which saw consecutive days of record highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. This changes the calculus. With new tariffs due to take effect Aug. 7 — which could further slow hiring in the U.S. because of increased costs and uncertainties for companies — both the economy and markets might weaken further. Then it becomes a matter of whether the "TACO trade" — "Trump Always Chickens Out" — will, in the words of The Terminator, be appear in the U.S. jobs market. Nonfarm payrolls in July grew 73,000, lower than the Dow Jones estimate of a 100,000 gain. Unemployment edged up 10 basis points to 4.2%. June and May's jobs numbers were revised dramatically lower. Trump fires commissioner of labor statistics after jobs report. In a Truth Social post, the U.S. president accused BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer of being a political appointee who "faked the Jobs Numbers before the Election" and providing inaccurate data. Stocks suffer their worst day in months. On Friday, the S&P 500 lost 1.6%, its worst day since May 21, breaking a 26-day streak when the index's moves remained within a 1% range. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index fell 1.89%, its biggest drop since April. Berkshire Hathaway's operating profit drops. Year over year, Warren Buffet's conglomerate experienced a 4% drop in second-quarter earnings to $11.16 billion. Berkshire warned of Trump's tariffs and their impact on its businesses. [PRO] August is historically the second worst month for the S&P 500. That's according to the Stock Trader's Almanac, which tracks data back to 1988. Tariff developments and AI-related earnings during the week will give a sign of whether history will repeat itself. Switzerland's tariff shock: The 39% U.S. hit no one saw coming The U.S.' imposition of a 39% tariff rate on Switzerland's came as a shock to the Alpine nation. Indications in the Swiss press had been that the country was close to negotiating an outline deal similar to those struck by the European Union, the U.K. and Japan, which set baseline tariffs between 10% and 15%. Instead, it has received one of the highest rates of any country. That is a significant blow, with the U.S. accounting for around a sixth of Switzerland's total exports.
