How Israel's vow to change the Middle East has reverberated across the map

Australia Broadcast Center

6 hours ago

The geopolitical conditions for the Israel-Iran war have been brewing for decades, and the past 20 months have seen a titanic power shift.
In the early 1960s, bombs arrived at the offices of multiple German scientists.
The bombs, wrapped like letters and parcels, were sent by the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad.
The scientists were helping Egypt build rockets that could potentially carry radioactive waste.
A 60-year-old campaign against Egypt might seem a strange place to start a story about the Israel-Iran war, but these events are seen as the beginning of an Israeli political doctrine that is still being applied today.
It is called the Begin Doctrine — named for former Israeli prime minister Menachem Begin, who in June 1981 stated: "We shall not allow any enemy to develop weapons of mass destruction turned against us."
Israeli prime minister Menachem Begin (front) and foreign minister Moshe Dayan arrive at Andrews Air Force Base in 1978. ( Image: MSGT Denham )
Begin made the declaration as Israel launched air strikes on a nuclear reactor in Iraq, an act he called "anticipatory self-defence".
The language will feel very familiar to anyone listening to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu today.
"This attack will be a precedent for every future government in Israel," Begin said in 1981.
"Every future Israeli prime minister will act, in similar circumstances, in the same way."
The same doctrine was at play in 2007, when Israel carried out another covert attack on an undeclared nuclear site, this time in Syria.
And it has been at the centre of the Israel-Iran war over the past two weeks, too.
A map of the Middle East shows Israel and Iran highlighted.
Iran's nuclear program — and the desire to stop it from obtaining a nuclear arsenal — has been Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's focus for decades.
Israel itself will not confirm or deny whether it has nuclear weapons, but the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute says it is among the nine countries that do.
Since Iran's theocratic regime took power after the revolution in 1979, the two countries have been sworn enemies.
Israel, according to Iran, was the "Little Satan" to the "Great Satan" United States. And for its part, Israel sees Iran as "the head of the snake" poised to strike it.
For decades, Israel and its allies — particularly the United States — have worked to ensure Iran doesn't expand its nuclear program to develop weapons.
Those efforts have come in various guises, including extensive diplomatic efforts but also allegedly the assassination of nuclear experts and targeted computer viruses aimed at crippling Iran's nuclear systems.
Throughout this time, one of the key factors seen as preventing a full-scale Israeli assault was Iran's 'axis of resistance' — a loose coalition of allied groups across the region, many with the ability to strike militarily against Israel.
But after Hamas's brutal attacks on Israelis on October 7, 2023 — which killed 1,200 people and saw more than 250 taken hostage — Netanyahu declared that Israel would "change the Middle East".
Since then, Israel has taken military action against a wide range of its neighbours, moves that have significantly weakened Iran's supporters.
In Gaza, Israel is fighting a long and bloody war that has killed more than 56,000 Palestinians, including 17,000 children, according to estimates from the Ministry of Health in Gaza.
The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs says the situation in Gaza is dire: "Amid starvation and a growing likelihood of famine, attacks on civilians attempting to access food supplies continue, resulting in mass casualties."
Israel's stated goal has been to destroy Hamas, which it says is armed and funded by Iran and has proven its capacity to strike at the Israeli state and civilians.
Children in Gaza sit atop an unexploded ordinance. ( Majdi Fathi/NurPhoto via Getty Images )
In the West Bank, Israel has launched the widespread demolition of homes in refugee camps, displacing tens of thousands of Palestinians.
The operation initially targeted Palestinian militants in Jenin, before branching out to neighbouring cities and towns in a "significant" effort against Iranian-backed groups in the region, according to Netanyahu.
An Israeli soldier directs a bulldozer as it begins tearing down a house outside of Hebron. ( Reuters )
In Lebanon, Israel has launched deadly strikes into Beirut, the Bekaa Valley, and elsewhere in the south of the country, as well as a pager attack that struck at the heart of Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah.
Smoke and flames erupt from a building hit by an Israeli air strike in Chiyah, in southern Beirut. ( AP: Bilal Hussein )
Syria's previous ruler, Bashar al-Assad, was a staunch enemy of Israel.
As a war against the Assad regime was waged inside the country's borders, Iran stepped up to provide extensive military supplies and troops.
When the regime fell and Assad fled to Moscow last December, it was a crucial blow to Iran's strongest ally in the region.
Syrians rejoiced the collapse of Assad's regime, waving the flag of the rebel group that ousted it. ( Reuters: Amr Abdallah )
In Yemen, Israel has launched air strikes to eliminate senior members of the Iran-backed Houthis.
The group, which also partially controls Yemen's air force, has launched attacks against Israel in support of Palestinians in Gaza.
Last month, they orchestrated a ballistic missile attack on Israel's main international airport, an incident that sparked a series of retaliatory air strikes by Israel.
What all of these military moves — and perhaps most crucially the fall of the Assad regime in Syria — add up to is a new position of strength for Israel, opening the door for it to strike at Iran without facing strong, potentially deadly attacks from Tehran's allies in the region.
As such, the campaign against Iran could be seen as the latest stage in a fight to change the geopolitical landscape in the region for good.
"The big thing about the Middle East is that there are so many areas where the issues connect with each other," the former Australian ambassador to Lebanon, Ian Parmeter, said.
"What is happening now with Iran needs to be seen in the context of what started in October 2023.
"It moved on to Lebanon, has to some extent involved Yemen with the Houthis, and now has gone across to Iran."
Netanyahu himself spelled out the strategy this way in January: "We are acting methodically and with determination against the Iranian axis wherever it reaches — in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Judea and Samaria."
And most recently, those operations expanded to striking Iran directly.
Smoke rises following an Israeli attack on the IRIB building, the country's state broadcaster, in Tehran, Iran, June 16, 2025. ( Reuters: Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) )
"It's the first war between Israel and Iran ever," said Hussein Ibish, senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington.
On June 13, Israel launched strikes on dozens of targets in Iran, hitting nuclear sites and killing both scientists and Iranian paramilitary officials.
One of the men, nuclear physicist Fereydoon Abbasi-Davani, had already survived a 2010 assassination attempt, which Tehran blamed on Israeli intelligence.
The strikes have so far left 4,870 Iranians injured and 627 dead, according to the country's health officials.
Iran fired back with multiple waves of ballistic missiles.
While Israel intercepted many of its missiles, over the following days, they made deadly strikes in Haifa, Tel Aviv, Be'er Sheva, and elsewhere.
The locations of some of the key Iranian missile strikes on Israel.
Israeli officials have reported at least 28 people killed and more than 3,000 injured by Iranian strikes.
And this week, the United States joined the fight, with president Donald Trump sending B-2 bombers and submarine-launched missiles to strike at the key nuclear targets of Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan.
Iran retaliated, shooting ballistic missiles at a US military base near Qatar, though they reportedly provided advance notice beforehand.
US and UK officials warned their citizens in Qatar to shelter in place following a threat to Al Udeid air base on Monday night.
At least 13 Iranian missiles were "knocked down" by air defences, according to Mr Trump, with one more "set free".
Iran said it had launched as many missiles as the US had launched at its nuclear sites. There were no reports of casualties.
Two hours later, Mr Trump said Iran and Israel had agreed to a ceasefire.
While the ceasefire appears to be holding for the moment, it remains unclear exactly how much damage was done to Iran's nuclear program.
Jessica Genauer, a senior lecturer on international relations at Flinders University, says it is hard to imagine Israel will walk away from an opportunity to push for regime change in Iran while the regime is historically weak.
And experts fear Iran could yet decide to accelerate its nuclear program as a result of these strikes, because they only serve to reinforce the need for a nuclear deterrent.
So, has Israel reshaped the Middle East?
Dr Genauer said it very much depends on how you define Israel's political and security objectives.
"If Israel's objective after October 7 was to severely degrade Iranian political and military capability, set back Iran's nuclear program, and undermine Iranian-backed forces across the region, then Israel has succeeded.
"We are looking at the weakest Iran has been militarily and politically for many decades.
"The leadership and military capability of Hamas and Hezbollah have been decimated — two of Iran's key military groups in the region.
"Regime change in Syria has curbed Iranian influence in the country. The Iranian-backed Houthi group in Yemen has been hit by Israeli and US strikes. Iran itself has been weakened by Israeli and US air strikes."
Fire from an Israeli attack on a Tehran oil refinery is seen following strikes south of Tehran on June 15, 2025. ( Reuters: Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) )
Police stand next to a crater at an impact site following a missile attack from Iran, in Herzliya, Israel, June 17, 2025. ( Reuters: Ronen Zvulun )
Iranian flags fly as fire and smoke rise from an Israeli attack on Sharan oil depot, following Israeli strikes on Tehran on June 15, 2025. ( Reuters/Majid Asgaripour/WANA )
Emergency personnel operate after missiles were launched from Iran at Tel Aviv, in Israel, on June 16, 2025. ( Reuters: Ronen Zvulun )
But, Dr Genauer said, if Israel's objective was to effect regime change in Iran, or to create a Middle East with a transformed geopolitical and security landscape, then they had not succeeded.
"We are no closer, since October 7, to a lasting peace between Israelis and Palestinians that guarantees both Israeli and Palestinian security," he said.
"Iran and Israel remain deeply hostile towards each other. While Iranian-backed groups such as Hamas or Hezbollah may be severely weakened and take years to rebuild, their objectives have not changed.
"So, ultimately, the security situation in the Middle East looks much like it did prior to October 7.
"The main difference is the strength of capability of Iran and Iranian-backed groups, but there has been no fundamental shift in strategy or outlook from either Israel, Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, or other groups."