Will CSX Stock Derail Or Deliver After Its Upcoming Earnings?
Governor Larry Hogan arrives by CSX train at Seagirt Marine Terminal. (Barbara Haddock Taylor/The ... More Baltimore Sun/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)
CSX Corporation is set to announce its earnings on Wednesday, April 16, 2025. Analysts expect earnings of $0.37 per share on revenue of $3.46 billion for the quarter. This marks a decline compared to the same quarter last year, which posted earnings of $0.46 per share on revenue of $3.68 billion. The projected drop in performance is primarily attributed to continued weakness in coal freight and a broader decline in average revenue per carload. That said, CSX stock has often responded positively to earnings announcements. Over the past five years, the stock delivered a positive one-day return in 65% of earnings releases, with a median return of 2.6% and a peak return of 4.3%.
The company currently has a market capitalization of $54 billion. Over the past twelve months, it generated $15 billion in revenue, alongside $5.4 billion in operating profits and $3.5 billion in net income. While investor response will depend on how earnings and guidance align with expectations, understanding historical performance can benefit event-driven traders. You can either analyze the historical trends and take a position before the announcement or explore correlations between immediate and medium-term returns to enter a trade the day after earnings are released.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
Key insights on one-day (1D) returns following earnings:
The table below provides additional data on observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) post-earnings returns, along with key summary statistics.
CSX observed 1D, 5D, and 21D returns post earnings
A relatively lower-risk approach (though only useful if correlations are strong) involves analyzing the relationship between short-term and medium-term post-earnings returns. Traders can identify the highest correlation pair and plan their strategy accordingly. For instance, if 1D and 5D returns are highly correlated, a positive 1D return might support a 'long' position for the next 5 days. The table below shows correlation data for both the past 5 years and more recent 3-year history. Note: 1D_5D denotes correlation between 1-day and subsequent 5-day returns.
CSX Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
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