Russia forecasts major increase in budget deficit
Russia's budget deficit is set to soar to more than three times the government's original target for 2025, according to the Finance Ministry. The revised outlook comes amid falling global oil prices and escalating trade tensions worldwide.
Last month, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov warned of potential budgetary stress due to declining oil revenues and global economic instability, saying the ongoing trade wars, which are reducing export opportunities for many countries including Russia, remain a major risk.
This year, the overall fiscal deficit is forecast at 1.7% of GDP, compared to the previously projected 0.5%, according to a statement released by the ministry on Wednesday. In monetary terms, the budget shortfall is expected to total 3.8 trillion rubles ($46.3 billion).
'The budget priorities remain unchanged: Social support for citizens, funding for national defense and security, and assistance for the families of participants in the special military operation, ensuring the country's technological leadership' Siluanov said, commenting on the revised forecast.
The ministry's economic growth outlook for 2025 remains unchanged at 2.5%, but the inflation estimate has been raised from 4.5% to 7.6% by the end of the year. The spending plan for 2025 was also increased by 830 billion rubles ($10.1 billion).
The forecast for the price of Russian oil has been lowered from $69.7 to $56 per barrel. Projected oil and gas revenues will amount to 8.32 trillion rubles ($100.5 billion), or 3.7% of GDP, the ministry said.
Global oil prices have been declining in recent weeks due to increased supply and economic uncertainty. Demand for oil has been weakened by the global economic slowdown, driven in part by tensions over trade. In April, oil prices dropped by more than 11%.
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