Tropical Storm Gil forms in eastern Pacific and isn't expected to threaten land as it strengthens
The storm is forecast to remain over open water and become a hurricane Friday, the Miami-based U.S. National Hurricane Center said. It's about 785 miles (1,263 kilometers) south-southwest of the Baja California peninsula of Mexico.
Gil had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (72 kph) and was moving west at 15 mph (24 kph).
There were no coastal watches or warnings in effect. The storm is expected to turn to the west-northwest in the coming days.
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USA Today
an hour ago
- USA Today
Hurricane season hotspot spawns new threat for Carolinas
A touch of Shakespeare's Macbeth is playing out in real time off the Southeast coast this summer as a persistent weather pattern brews 'double, double, toil and (tropical) trouble.' So far, the region has churned up two tropical storms, two potential tropical disturbances, and it's now being watched closely for the development of yet another system. On Aug. 5, the National Hurricane Center put the chances of a fifth tropical disturbance emerging in the region at roughly 40% over the next seven days. It's one of two potential systems the center is watching, in addition to Tropical Storm Dexter, which spun up off a frontal boundary off the Southeast coast on Aug. 3. This hurricane season isn't the first time the region has merited close attention from the National Hurricane Center, said Dan Brown, branch chief of the center's hurricane specialists. "It's an area that we watch for development, especially during the early part of hurricane season, in late May, June and July.' 'We often get frontal boundaries that move off the coast there and then kind of stall there,' Brown told USA TODAY. In 2023, Ophelia formed in the region in September, and in 2022, Colin formed just off the coast of South Carolina, he said. 'It's been a while since we've seen multiple systems form there.' What's the potential for a tropical storm off the Southeast Coast? 'It's too early to know' if the potential disturbance will have any impacts, Brown said. 'None of the guidance suggests it would get very strong, but it's certainly something folks should be paying attention to as we approach the peak of the season.' 'It could bring locally heavy rainfall,' he said. 'Oftentimes, it doesn't take a full-fledged tropical storm or system to bring heavy rain.' For folks who haven't yet stocked up on their hurricane supplies, 'Now's a good time,' Brown said. 'It looks like things could be more active as we head toward the middle of August.' Hurricane season is here The nation's top forecaster has an urgent message Weather service offices in the region are also advising residents to monitor forecasts closely. The main local impacts from the system in northern Florida and southern Georgia are expected to be a 'continued heavy rainfall/flood threat and elevated rip current risk at local beaches,' Angie Enyedi, a meteorologist in the Jacksonville weather service office, said on Aug 5. The risk of flooding rainfall increases by the weekend as the system approaches the coast. Enyedi also advised residents to watch the forecasts. 'We want to continue to steer folks toward credible forecasts from the National Hurricane Center & local NWS offices, as well as trusted media outlets... not social-media-ologists,' she wrote. Why are storms developing off the Southeast coast? In the winter, cold fronts are stronger and deeper in the mid latitudes across the globe, Brown said. But in the summer, cold fronts that cross through the Central and Eastern U.S. become weaker when they arrive at lower latitudes, said Zach Taylor, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center. At the moment, one of those stalled frontal boundaries is draped across the Southeast from the Gulf Coast toward the coastal Carolinas, and it's leading to pretty widespread showers and thunderstorms, Taylor said. That's the area the hurricane center is watching for further development. The fronts stall in the summer in part because the jet streams that zip around the globe, helping to steer weather systems, are much further toward the poles, Taylor said. 'The fronts make it to the Southeast and kind of lose their momentum and are just not able to advance any further.' Once stalled, they tend to become a focus point for moisture and other factors that concentrate additional showers and thunderstorms. One storm appeared off a frontal boundary on July 5 and became Chantal, which moved over the coast and caused deadly flooding in North Carolina. The two disturbances that never fully materialized appeared between July 12 and July 23 and drifted off to the west, causing rain across North Florida and along the Gulf Coast into Louisiana. Dexter moved off to the east and northeast after forming off one of the stalled boundaries. On Aug. 5, it lost a little steam, but forecasters at the hurricane center expected it to strengthen again as a post-tropical storm as it moves off into the North Atlantic. Dinah Voyles Pulver covers climate change and the environment for USA TODAY. She's written about hurricanes, tornadoes and violent weather for more than 30 years. Reach her at dpulver@ or @dinahvp on Bluesky or X or dinahvp.77 on Signal.
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
Will a brewing storm hit the East Coast? Hurricane forecasters watch the Bermuda High.
The tropics are heating up and forecasters are keeping watch on a developing tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean, a system that the National Hurricane Center gives a 50% chance of development within the next seven days. The path this system takes, as is typical with many developing tropical systems, rests with a weather feature known as the Bermuda High, a key steering mechanism that often decides the fate of hurricanes. If the Bermuda High weakens, the storm may curve out to sea. If it stays strong, the system could track closer to the U.S. According to a Substack post by Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza, "this wave should move more to the west-northwest or northwest over the next few days as it makes an attempt to organize. The most likely scenario still takes this out to sea via a weakness in the subtropical ridge across the Atlantic." The subtropical ridge he refers to is another name for the Bermuda High. Forecast models disagree WPLG-TV hurricane specialist Michael Lowry agrees with Lanza's assessment, noting that the European weather model develops the system farther north and forecasts weaker subtropical high pressure, which allows the developing system to curl out to sea. However, he said the American GFS model homes in on the southern edge of the tropical wave and maintains stronger high-pressure (Bermuda High) steering, which keeps it on a more westward trajectory near or just north of the Caribbean islands this coming weekend. On X, University of Miami meteorologist Andy Hazelton said, "There is still a lot of uncertainty on the long-term fate of this one. (We) probably won't know for sure which solution is more likely until we see where this attempts to consolidate. It's many days away from any landmasses, thankfully, so plenty of time to watch." What is the Bermuda High? The strength of the Bermuda High will determine the track of this and many storms this season in the Atlantic. The Bermuda High, an area of high pressure in the Atlantic Ocean, sits over the Atlantic during summer and often influences hurricane tracks. Its position and strength can steer hurricanes, determining whether they hit the U.S. East Coast, curve out to sea, or impact other areas like Bermuda. According to AccuWeather, the clockwise circulation around the high-pressure system is what helps direct the path of tropical systems and can determine where they make landfall. Easterly winds to the south of the high sometimes have the ability to force tropical systems onto a westerly course that can take them from the eastern Atlantic to the Caribbean Sea or over the Gulf. High moves around haphazardly Throughout the summer, the Bermuda High can move around in a haphazard way, which makes forecasting tropical systems more of a challenge, AccuWeather said. 'During the early part of the hurricane season, this high tends to be stronger and therefore noses westward into the northern Gulf but then as we go into late July and August, the high tends to expand and contract,' explained AccuWeather meteorologist Dan Kottlowski in an online report. Later in the season, the Bermuda High tends to relax a bit and change orientation as August and September approach. "During October, the high sometimes moves farther east, allowing for storms to move much closer to the east coast of the United States, north of the Carolinas," Kottlowski said. Current storms in the Atlantic This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane forecasters eye brewing Atlantic storm and the Bermuda High
Newsweek
5 hours ago
- Newsweek
Potential Tropical Storm Erin Update as Chances at Forming Rise
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has increased the chances that a disturbance off the Southeast U.S. coast will form within the next seven days. Should it strengthen into a tropical storm, it will become the fifth named storm of the season and will be called Erin. Why It Matters The NHC is currently tracking three systems in the Atlantic Ocean. They are Tropical Storm Dexter, which is currently moving further out to sea, and two disturbances, one off the western coast of Africa and one brewing much closer to the U.S. Each of these disturbances has a moderate chance at strengthening into a tropical storm in the coming days. Hurricanes and tropical storms can lead to evacuation warnings and cause major damage when they hit the U.S. Tracking and predicting the movement of these storms can help with preparedness and public safety. The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1 and runs through November 30. What To Know Since Monday, chances that the disturbance nearest the U.S. will strengthen into a tropical storm have increased. The storm had zero percent chance of strengthening within 48 hours and a 30 percent chance of doing so within the next seven days on Monday. On Tuesday, those chances for it to form within the next 48 hours have risen to 10 percent, and the chances it will do so within the next seven days have risen to 40 percent. A map from the National Hurricane Center shows meteorologists monitoring three disturbances, including one tropical storm, in the Atlantic Ocean. A map from the National Hurricane Center shows meteorologists monitoring three disturbances, including one tropical storm, in the Atlantic Ocean. National Hurricane Center Meanwhile, the disturbance off the coast of Africa has a slightly higher chance at forming in the next seven days at 50 percent, but chances remain at near zero for the next 48 hours. Either one of these disturbances could become Erin. Should they both strengthen into a tropical storm, one will be named Fernand. Neither of the new systems is causing weather hazards on land, although the North Carolina coastline did see dangerous wave and current activity yesterday from Tropical Storm Dexter, National Weather Service (NWS) meteorologist Olivia Cahill told Newsweek. It remains to be seen what, if any, impacts will be caused by the new disturbances. Weather experts have issued repeated warnings this summer that peak Atlantic hurricane season doesn't typically hit until September, urging people to take precautionary action, such as stocking up on emergency supplies and ensuring they have proper insurance in place, before a storm forms. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting from 13 to 19 named storms for this year's Atlantic hurricane season, with six to 10 strengthening into hurricanes and three to five into major hurricanes. What People Are Saying NHC in an updated outlook about the system closest to the U.S.: "A weak surface trough currently located several hundred miles off the coast of the southeastern United States is expected to form an area of low pressure in a day or so. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the latter portion of this week or weekend as the low initially moves slowly westward, but turns more northward by this weekend." NHC in an updated outlook about the system near Africa: "A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is currently producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity, primarily to the southwest of the wave axis. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend as the system moves generally west-northwestward across the central tropical or subtropical Atlantic." What Happens Next NHC meteorologists will continue to monitor the system as it progresses. As of the most recent forecast, there were no warnings or watches in place for the Southeast coast.
