How climate change is influencing tornadoes
Are tornadoes getting worse because of climate change? It's a question many are asking, especially as headlines highlight unusual outbreaks and shifting storm patterns. A recent National Geographic article explored that connection, and AccuWeather Climate Expert Brett Anderson sat down with Senior Meteorologist Dan DePodwin to unpack the science behind it on a new episode of Climate in the News on the AccuWeather Network.
Tornado numbers: correlation without causation
Although the number of observed tornadoes has increased over the past 50 years as the globe has warmed, much of that uptick is likely due to advancements in Doppler radar technology, increased storm chasing and better video documentation, Anderson said.
Interestingly, there has been no significant observed change in the frequency of major tornadoes, because those higher-end tornadoes are less likely to go unnoticed.
Two twisters spinning side-by-side in Akron, Colorado. (AccuWeather/Tony Laubach)
More heat but less wind
"Climate change adds heat to the atmosphere. Heat provides energy. So you'd think we'll see stronger tornadoes." Anderson explained.
"However, with added heat, we're seeing weaker jet streams because the Arctic is warming very rapidly. So the temperature difference between the north and the south is less. The jet stream's weaker. So you have less wind shear, which is critical for the formation tornadoes."
Tornado alley has shifted
Another notable finding is the shift or expansion of "Tornado Alley" from the Great Plains to the southeastern United States over the past few decades. Anderson believes this is primarily due to the warming of the Gulf of America, which adds substantial heat energy to the atmosphere. Consequently, the region has seen an increase in strong tornadoes occurring outside of the traditional tornado season, particularly in late winter and early spring.
Good news: Fatality rate is down
The southeastern U.S. is home to a more vulnerable population, with many residents living in manufactured homes that are not securely anchored to the ground. Despite this vulnerability, the fatality rate for tornadoes has decreased over the years, thanks to advancements in technology and improved warning systems.
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