Why new homes may not get planning in Dublin after 2028
"The chain is only as strong as its weakest link."
Eighteenth century philosopher Thomas Reid's quote could be applied to building houses in Dublin. That weak link is water.
Local authorities in the capital will be unable to grant planning for new homes from 2028 onwards unless Uisce Éireann, formerly Irish Water, gets the green light for a massive new drainage scheme.
For a city facing an acute housing crisis, that would be catastrophic.
The Ringsend treatment plant in Dublin's south inner city is currently approaching maximum capacity.
Other facilities are near or above their limits.
If Dublin continues to build homes without additional wastewater capacity it risks polluting the sea around the capital, putting Ireland in breach of EU water standards affecting users of amenities such as beaches and swimming areas.
If there is not sufficient water treatment, councils may have to turn down planning applications.
Uisce Éireann's plan is called the Greater Dublin Drainage scheme. It would provide water treatment for half a million people in the capital and in parts of Meath and Kildare.
It includes a 14km orbital sewer from Abbotstown which would connect a treatment plant in Clonsagh with an 11km outfall pipe running far out to sea north of Howth.
But the project has been tied up in the planning process for seven years at a time when the housing crisis has worsened.
A planning application was originally lodged for the scheme in 2018, it was subject to a judicial challenge in 2020, and due to one legal defect went back to An Coimisiún Pleanála in 2021.
Uisce Éireann submitted further information last year and is still waiting for approval.
This lengthy process was triggered by an appeal by one sea swimmer.
The seven-year delay has seen costs for the project rise from €600m to €1.3bn.
Even if the planning board gives permission for the drainage scheme, it could still be delayed again by another judicial review.
If that happens, local authorities are unlikely to be able to give planning approval for new homes in many parts of north Dublin.
This is an area where there are plans for significant numbers of new housing projects.
Undoubtedly wastewater is the most acute issue facing Uisce Éireann.
But the provision of water itself is a huge challenge too.
Currently the River Liffey supplies 85% of the requirements for 1.7m people, and that is not viewed as sustainable.
Uisce Éireann says the impact of climate change is already evident, and it will worsen.
It says: "Extreme weather in the form of both droughts and intense rainfall will affect both the availability and quality of water."
There are serious concerns about supplies for the capital and the midlands with residents in Mullingar already living with restrictions.
The current sustainable production of water in the Greater Dublin Area is 620 million litres daily.
In the week up to Sunday 22 June this year, the average usage was 635 million litres with storage in treated water reservoirs also used to meet demand.
Supplies are very tight and there is little headroom for more housing with the population expected to grow by 25% by 2040.
Uisce Éireann's plan is to use 2% of the water flowing from the River Shannon and pipe it to Dublin.
It would be sourced from the Parteen Basin in Lough Derg which lies between Co Clare and Co Tipperary.
Parteen is a reservoir which holds water used at the Ardnacrusha hydroelectric plant.
The water would be treated nearby at Birdhill, Co Tipperary and transferred by gravity to a reservoir in south Dublin via a buried pipeline.
This is not a new plan.
The current iteration dates back to 1996.
It has been agreed by the Government, and Uisce Éireann expects to submit a planning application at the end of this year.
But there are objections to its environmental impact.
The schemes to address water supplies and drainage to keep up with the demands for housing will require more money.
Some €10.3bn has been allocated to Uisce Éireann for capital projects between now and 2029.
The organisation says it requires a further €2bn.
Next month the National Development Plan will be published by the Government and it is likely to address funding for Uisce Éireann.
But even if the money is allocated, the organisation has a steep hill to climb if it is to make sufficient progress to meet growing requirements for more homes.
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