Astros second-half storylines to watch, starting with trade deadline priorities

New York Times

2 days ago

HOUSTON — Vibes and duct tape held the Houston Astros together across an adventurous first half that tested depth and, at times, defied logic. A transformative winter injected energy and athleticism the club has rarely shown during its golden era.
Injuries threatened to render those efforts useless. Two members of Houston's season-opening rotation have undergone Tommy John surgery. A third hasn't pitched in a game since mid-April. Somehow, the pitching staff still boasts baseball's fifth-lowest ERA.
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Yordan Alvarez missed the final 66 games before the All-Star break. Neither Christian Walker nor Yainer Diaz has an OPS above .690. Breakout seasons by Jeremy Peña and Jake Meyers buoyed the lineup in their absence.
That both entered the break on the injured list is a fitting encapsulation of an otherwise excellent run. Here are three second-half storylines for an Astros team holding a five-game advantage in the American League West.
The cavalry resides in West Palm Beach, Fla., where four pitchers the Astros presumed would play prominent roles in their season are in various states of recovery from significant injuries. Their progress will determine Houston's direction at the trade deadline and, perhaps, their destiny in October.
Cristian Javier and Luis Garcia are coming back from Tommy John surgery. J.P. France had right shoulder surgery last June. Spencer Arrighetti fractured his right thumb in a freak accident in April at T-Mobile Park.
Both Garcia and Javier have made minor-league rehab starts with the team's Florida Coast League affiliate, but will need at least a month more to build up as traditional starters.
During the team's pregame radio show on Sunday, general manager Dana Brown said Javier is ahead of Garcia, but expressed hope that both pitchers would contribute in the second half.
France and Arrighetti are still in the live batting practice phase of their recoveries, a step behind Garcia and Javier.
It's difficult — if not impossible — to envision any of the four pitchers returning before the July 31 trade deadline, putting Brown in a precarious position. Houston could use starting pitching help, but if their internal reinforcements are back at full strength, the need may be mitigated.
The more pertinent question Brown and his baseball operations officials must ponder: How effective can this quartet be? Javier boasts a career 10.1 strikeouts per nine and, at times, has been borderline unhittable. Garcia has a lifetime 3.61 ERA at the major-league level.
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Still, Garcia hasn't appeared in a big-league game in 26 months. France has been absent since April 23, 2024, and Javier since May 21 of the same year. Bear in mind, too, that pitchers returning from reconstructive surgeries almost always require close monitoring.
Arrighetti, at least, made two starts this season before a batted ball broke his thumb during batting practice. Perhaps his efficacy is the easiest of the four to project. The other three offer a far more complicated conundrum.
Alvarez hasn't played since May 2, a 66-game stretch in which the Astros finished 40-26 with a .268/.329/.434 slash line, but faced myriad questions about Alvarez's prognosis and recovery.
Diagnosed at first with a muscle strain in the top of his right hand, Alvarez has suffered two setbacks during his recovery. The first forced Houston to take more imaging, which revealed a 'small' fracture near the fourth metacarpal.
Alvarez did not swing for about a month before being shipped to the Astros' spring training facility on June 29 to face live pitching. Alvarez took one day of live batting practice, reported a recurrence of pain and hasn't swung a bat since.
Team officials remain optimistic Alvarez will return at some point this season. After his most recent setback, Alvarez received two injections from a hand specialist that, according to the team, confirmed the pain is unrelated to Alvarez's fracture. A news release from the Astros called the development 'encouraging news.'
Still, the trajectory of Alvarez's recovery must prompt serious concern about his ability to play again at full strength this season. Alvarez is scheduled to be re-evaluated on Thursday, at which point doctors could clear him to resume swinging a bat.
Before going on the injured list, though, Alvarez slashed just .210/.306/.340 across 121 plate appearances. Just seven of his 21 hits fell for extra bases, numbers that may have been altered by an injured hand Houston can't seem to heal.
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At the very least, it would behoove Brown to enter the trade deadline without any expectations for Alvarez to contribute at his full strength, allowing him to prepare for the worst while hoping for the best.
An ideal outcome is the Astros acquiring both by the July 31 trade deadline, but their paucity of prospect capital may force Houston's baseball operations department to hone its focus.
The Astros finished the first half 29-29 in games not started by Hunter Brown or Framber Valdez, accentuating the importance of both aces and the vulnerability of Houston's rotation behind them.
Rookies Colton Gordon, Brandon Walter and Ryan Gusto have held their own while Lance McCullers Jr. is in the throes of inconsistencies expected from someone who did not appear in a major-league game for 915 days. The foursome finished the first half with a 4.87 ERA.
Whether any of them inspire confidence to start a playoff game — or something with similar stakes in September — is a question Houston's baseball operations officials must ponder over the next three weeks. Whether they are prepared to gamble on the health of Arrighetti, France, Javier or Garcia in their stead is another.
Dana Brown has already reiterated his desire for a left-handed bat within a lineup that is one of the most unbalanced in baseball. No offense in the sport has fewer at-bats by a left-handed hitter, a byproduct of both Alvarez's extended absence and the team's curious roster construction since spring training.
Adding an established left-handed bat that can either platoon in the outfield or play second base is the most direct way to upgrade Houston's injury-ravaged lineup.
Welcoming Alvarez back would help, but his career-long success against left-handed pitching — while being surrounded by all right-handed hitters — will make opposing managers wary of deploying southpaws against the Astros.
As it stands, Houston has taken just 642 plate appearances against left-handed pitching this season. No team has fewer — an imbalance that could get exposed by the elite right-handed pitching that always appears in October.
(Top photo of Cristian Javier: Logan Riely / Getty Images)