Ukraine is making more weapons than ever—but still can't fight Russia alone

Mint

18-05-2025

In the first years of Russia's invasion, Ukraine relied heavily on a host of Western weapons to equip its forces. Now, out of the crucible of war, Kyiv's own defense industry is producing more arms than ever.
Ukraine had only a single prototype of its domestically produced Bohdana howitzer when Russia invaded. Last year, Kyiv said it produced more artillery guns than all the North Atlantic Treaty Organization countries combined.
While Western allies have been slow to increase arms production, the value of weapons Ukraine's defense industry can make has ballooned from $1 billion in 2022 to $35 billion over three years of war, even as Russia fires missiles at its factories.
With support from the U.S. drying up, Ukraine's defense industry is increasingly key to the country's ability to sustain the fight against Russia—or underwrite its sovereignty in the event of a peace deal. The more of its own weapons Ukraine can produce, the less vulnerable it will be to the vagaries of international politics or kinks in cross-border supply chains. The country also sees its defense industry as a postwar revenue stream for its battered economy and a way to further integrate itself into the West by becoming one of its suppliers.
'Ukraine will always need its own strong weapons so that we can have our own strong Ukrainian state," President Volodymyr Zelensky has said.
More than 40% of the weapons used on the front line with Russia are now made in Ukraine, Zelensky said. In some areas, such as drones, unmanned ground systems, and electronic warfare, the figure is close to 100%.
Ukrainian manufacturers are also churning out growing quantities of traditional armaments such as artillery systems, armored vehicles, mines and ammunition of all calibers.
Vitaliy Zagudaiev says his company is producing more than 20 Bohdanas a month.
'In Western countries there's more competition for the best computer science grads or IT people," said Rob Lee, senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a foreign-policy think tank. 'In Ukraine, much of the best talent has gone into defense."
But even the robust transformation of its homegrown arsenal won't be enough for Ukraine to hold back Moscow's forces alone.
Ukraine needs the U.S. and other Western allies to square up to Russia's war machine. It can't produce anywhere near enough ammunition to keep its guns firing, or any of the air-defense interceptors it needs to shield against Russian missiles.
And while arms production has boomed, Kyiv's budget is strained. This year, the government will only be able to purchase less than half of what defense manufacturers can produce, said Oleksandr Kamyshin, an adviser to Zelensky and former minister of strategic industries.
'It's painful when you can't produce and you've got nothing to fight with," he said. 'It's twice as painful when you can produce, but you can't fund the procurement."
To harness the spare capacity, some Western governments are funding weapons purchases from Ukrainian defense companies under the so-called Danish model in which instead of supplying Kyiv with Western weapons, they provide funds to purchase arms from Ukrainian defense manufacturers. 'Investing directly in these companies might be the best use of available funds in terms of achieving an impact on the battlefield," said Lee.
The war has served as a testing ground for a range of weapons that hadn't previously seen active service, providing NATO countries with valuable lessons on how they perform in battle.
Ukraine inherited a swath of the Soviet defense industry when it gained independence, but those manufacturing capabilities quickly went into decline.
A private company developed the Bohdana in 2016, but received no orders before Russia invaded, said Vitaliy Zagudaiev, director general of the Kramatorsk Heavy Duty Machine Tool Building Plant.
After Russia invaded in 2022, fears that the system would be captured were so great that Zagudaiev received instructions to dismantle the only prototype. Until then, it had only been used as part of an Independence Day parade.
Soon, however, Zagudaiev received instructions to put the gun back together, to use on the front line. Deployed alongside a French-built Caesar self-propelled howitzer, the Bohdana pounded Russian positions on Snake Island in the Black Sea, forcing Moscow to relinquish the rocky outcrop in the first summer of the war.
Orders for the Bohdana began to roll in, but the plant in eastern Ukraine was in Russia's crosshairs. Under fire, workers began relocating production to new facilities in the west of the country, but not before more than half the equipment was destroyed. Lead times for replacement orders were too long, so the company made its own equipment.
Production was dispersed to minimize the impact of any Russian attack. If a missile successfully struck one facility, the others could still keep producing. Working round the clock, production of the gun soon outstripped the supply of wheeled chassis on which the Bohdana is mounted.
The company is now producing more than 20 Bohdanas a month, said Zagudaiev. Russia can make about 40 artillery guns over the same period, according to a study by the Kiel Institute. The final Bohdana is only assembled at the last moment to minimize the chances of being targeted before reaching the front line.
'One of the lessons of this war is that the demand for quantity is very high," said Lee. 'It's not just about having exquisite systems—it's do you have enough to sustain a high-intensity war for a year or more without significantly degrading your military?"
While the Swedish-built Archer or Germany's Panzer 200 howitzers have more sophisticated electronics, they take longer to produce and are much costlier. The self-propelled Bohdana costs 2.8 million euros apiece, equivalent to $3.1 million, compared with €8.76 million for the Archer, or about €4 million for the Caesar.
And the Bohdana is easier to repair and maintain. 'Any part is available within 24 hours," said Zagudaiev. 'We have mobile brigades working on the entire front line."
About 85% of the Bohdana's components are now produced domestically, including the barrel, which wears out over time. The company is developing its own chassis to further reduce dependence on imports, Zagudaiev said. Last year, it began producing a towed gun, which is cheaper than the self-propelled version and useful in defense. Feedback from operators on the front line is continually incorporated during design tweaks.
Each of the Bohdana's electrical or hydraulic systems has a corresponding mechanical system. That makes the gun heavier but means it can keep working in the event of an electrical or hydraulic failure, Zagudaiev said.
The Danish government is funding the purchase 18 Bohdana howitzers for Ukraine's armed forces.
The Bohdana shows how far Ukraine's defense industry has come. But efforts to produce NATO-standard 155mm ammunition, central to the war effort, illustrate the obstacles.
Vladyslav Belbas says a lack of financing has held up a project to produce NATO-standard ammunition.
Private company Ukrainian Armor set up a facility to produce 155mm ammunition with the license and drawings transferred by the Czechoslovak Group, which is also supplying propellant, fuses and primers that can't be produced in Ukraine.
The company, which also makes armored vehicles, had planned to produce 100,000 rounds of 155mm ammunition this year and 300,000 next year—a fraction of the three to four million rounds Ukraine is estimated to go through a year.
The project, however, is on hold because the company hasn't received funds from the government, said chief executive Vladyslav Belbas.
'We should move faster," he said. 'It's more than just business for us."
Write to Isabel Coles at [e-mail]