The Battle Over Electoral Reform in Bangladesh

The Diplomat

6 days ago

Islamists want a proportional representation system under which they could win more seats. The BNP prefers the current first-past-the-post system.
On June 29, Islami Andolan Bangladesh (IAB)'s Ameer Syed Muhammad Rezaul Karim called for the upcoming national election to be held under the proportional representation (PR) system. Addressing a grand rally at the Suhrawardy Udyan in Dhaka, Karim said: 'In the next election, both houses of parliament must be elected through the proportional representation system. The number of seats a party gets in parliament should be proportional to the percentage of votes it receives.'
Several other political parties, including the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) and the National Citizen Party (NCP) have backed the demand for a PR system.
The IAB chief also asserted that Islam is the future of Bangladesh and asked for a 'single box' for Islamist forces. 'Ahead of the election, a united and unbreakable alliance must be formed among patriotic, Islamic forces against corrupt, extortionist, and terrorist elements,' he said.
Unity among Islamist forces has long been an issue of political debate. While they often appear monolithic from the outside, this perception rarely holds in practice. Instead, theological divergences are frequently weaponized in political discourse, with different factions undermining one another's legitimacy to consolidate influence.
A notable attempt to unify Islamist forces in the late 1970s collapsed, giving birth to the Islami Andolan Bangladesh in 1987 as a distinct entity.
After a series of extensive talks and behind-the-scenes negotiations among Islamist leaders, it now appears that the various Islamist parties are approaching an unprecedented level of cohesion and unity. The post-Hasina political scenario has served as a unifying catalyst, offering shared incentives and strategic benefits for these groups to move forward collectively.
Historically, Bangladesh's political landscape has been dominated by two mainstream parties — the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Awami League (AL) — which together secured nearly 70-80 percent of the votes. Other parties, including Jatiya Party (JP) and JI, have typically captured the remainder. However, events following the fall of the Sheikh Hasina-led AL government on August 5 and her flight from the country have dramatically altered this equation.
The AL has been banned on allegations of mass murder. The center-left space it occupied in Bangladesh politics is now open. As for the JP, which provided unwavering support to the AL throughout its 16 years of authoritarian rule, it is facing a credibility crisis and is struggling for relevance.
If in the past, the electoral contest was between the center-right (BNP) and the center-left (AL) alignments, this time is likely to be one between the right (Islamists) and the center-right (BNP). The significant and constructive role played by the Islamist forces during the July Revolution has legitimized their position in the eyes of the people. Bangladesh is likely to see a new parliamentary formation, where Islam as a value system is going to be more dominant than in the past.
The long-term impact of this shift remains to be seen.
The Islamists' demand for a PR electoral system is clearly strategic. While politically motivated, it carries practical advantages. For instance, in limiting the effectiveness of money and muscle power, as candidates cannot predict outcomes in advance. Securing an absolute parliamentary majority under this system will be extremely difficult, thereby reducing the risk of future authoritarian dominance akin to Hasina's rule.
Currently, the BNP holds the largest share of public support, reportedly exceeding 40 percent. Under the existing first-past-the-post electoral system, they could secure an outright majority.
However, the proposed PR system would prevent them from doing so. In turn, it would enable smaller political parties to obtain proportional parliamentary representation, making room for a more pluralistic and diverse political landscape.
This is a demand that would go against the interests of the BNP.
Not surprisingly, the BNP's response to the IAB demand was swift. BNP Acting Chairman Tarique Rahman called on all political leaders to seriously consider the matter, pointing out that the PR system could create divisions instead of unity in the country. Echoing this concern, BNP standing committee member Salahuddin Ahmed said that those advocating for a PR system and prioritizing local government polls aim to delay or obstruct the upcoming national election.
This emerging debate around the nature of the electoral system has become a critical flashpoint, with potential implications for political unity and stability. Without a consensus among key parties, the risk of election postponement and parliamentary deadlock looms large.
Bangladesh cannot afford another parliament without a legitimate opposition presence. Therefore, the interim government must actively engage all political stakeholders to finalize an election roadmap. Only through inclusive dialogue and institutional coordination can the next national election proceed in a manner that safeguards participation, legitimacy, and democratic continuity.