Every Big Ten team's best and worst-case scenario for 2025

USA Today

14-07-2025

There's just over a month before toe meets leather on the 2025 college football season, and teams across the country are gearing up for their 12-game regular season slates. This fall, teams across the Big Ten will battle for a national championship, playoff appearance, or simply to make a bowl game. Here's a look at the best- and worst-case scenario for every team in the conference entering the season.
Illinois
Best case scenario: 11-1
Worst case scenario: 6-6
The Fighting Illini have a wide range of possible outcomes in 2024, with several toss-ups throughout the year. Ohio State is seemingly the only guaranteed loss, while Western Illinois, Western Michigan and Purdue should be easy wins. Playing at Duke, at Indiana, vs. USC, at Washington and at Wisconsin will likely all be close games, and dropping a stinker against Rutgers, Maryland or Northwestern isn't out of the picture. If all goes well, Illinois will be in College Football Playoff contention, but several tricky road games could derail things.
Indiana
Best-case scenario: 10-2
Worst-case scenario: 7-5
The Hoosiers open with one of the softest nonconference slates in the country, hosting Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and Indiana State, which should result in easy victories. After that, things get trickier with matchups against Illinois, Iowa, Oregon, Penn State and Wisconsin on the docket. Two or more losses against that group seems extremely likely, especially considering Indiana will be on the road against the Hawkeyes, Ducks and Nittany Lions, three of the toughest environments around.
Iowa
Best-case scenario: 9-3
Worst-case scenario: 6-6
The Hawkeyes have won eight or more games every season since 2015, but that streak is at risk in 2025. The annual CyHawk rivalry game could prove tougher than usual with Iowa State coming off a Big 12 conference championship appearance. Additionally, Iowa will be an underdog in conference games against Penn State, Oregon and USC, and games against Indiana, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Nebraska could be tricky. With one of Iowa's toughest schedules in recent history, achieving eight wins again would be a successful season.
Maryland
Best-case scenario: 7-5
Worst-case scenario: 4-8
The Terrapins are in danger of the wheels falling off after a disappointing 4-8 season a year ago. The nonconference slate features three supposed cupcake games, but NIU could give Maryland a run for its money. In Big Ten play, the Terrapins received a relatively easy draw, with Michigan and Illinois as the two toughest opponents. Wisconsin, Washington, Nebraska and Indiana could be tricky, depending on how their rosters mesh, and Maryland isn't clearly above teams like UCLA and Michigan State. Finding wins in conference play will be tricky for the Terrapins in 2025.
Michigan State
Best-case scenario: 7-5
Worst-case scenario: 4-8
The Spartans should have free wins over Western Michigan and Youngstown State and will be favored over Boston College in nonconference play. Playing Michigan and Penn State pencils in two losses, and most of the toss-ups (Nebraska, Indiana, Minnesota, Iowa) are on the road. The Spartans should go undefeated through nonconference play and pick off a couple Big Ten opponents, but the conference slate is tough.
Michigan
Best-case scenario: 11-1
Worst-case scenario: 8-4
In addition to their annual rivalry against Ohio State, the Wolverines travel to USC and Oklahoma, but the rest of the schedule seems manageable for them. Michigan is riding momentum after beating the Buckeyes and Alabama in back-to-back games to close out last season, and should get a significant improvement in quarterback play from either 5-star Bryce Underwood or veteran transfer Mikey Keene. The Wolverines should compete for a playoff appearance and possibly a conference championship.
Minnesota
Best-case scenario: 10-2
Worst-case scenario: 6-6
The Golden Gophers should go 3-0 in nonconference play, with a trip to Cal as the toughest test. Conference games against Rutgers, Purdue and Northwestern should be comfortable wins, giving Minnesota bowl eligibility, but there are also some likely losses, including at Ohio State and at Oregon.
Nebraska
Best-case scenario: 8-4
Worst-case scenario: 6-6
The Cornhuskers have a relatively easy nonconference slate, but playing Michigan, USC, Penn State and Iowa make for uphill battles. Maryland, Northwestern and UCLA should provide easy wins in conference play, giving Nebraska bowl eligibility for the second consecutive season if it takes care of business.
Northwestern
Best-case scenario: 6-6
Worst-case scenario: 3-9
A nonconference road trip to Tulane won't be easy for a team of Northwestern's caliber, though Western Michigan and UL Monroe are all but guaranteed victories. Hosting UCLA and Purdue gives the Wildcats a good shot of beating some of the conference's bottom-dwellers, but wins outside of that will be hard to come by. The schedule-makers did Northwestern no favors by including Oregon, Michigan, Penn State, USC and Illinois, which will all be heavy favorites over the Wildcats.
Ohio State
Best-case scenario: 12-0
Worst-case scenario: 9-3
Fresh off a national championship, the Buckeyes have a chance to be the best team in the country once again, but their schedule features some elite opponents. A nonconference matchup with Texas and Big Ten games against Penn State and Michigan make for three major hurdles, and road trips to Washington, Wisconsin and Illinois could be trap games. Still, it's hard to see Ohio State dropping more than three contests.
Oregon
Best-case scenario: 12-0
Worst-case scenario: 9-3
Nonconference games against Oregon State and Oklahoma State are interesting but should result in multiple-score victories for the Ducks. Oregon can't play itself and also avoids Ohio State and Michigan, so the only major tests should come at Penn State and at USC. Traveling to Iowa could be tricky, and dropping a rivalry game against Washington isn't out of the picture, so it's possible the Ducks regress to 9-3.
Penn State
Best-case scenario: 12-0
Worst-case scenario: 9-3
The Nittany Lions benefit from an extremely weak nonconference schedule but have tough games at Ohio State and vs. Oregon, which should be close contest. Penn State may also be tested at Iowa or vs. Indiana, but the Nittany Lions have historically handled business when favored.
Purdue
Best-case scenario: 5-7
Worst-case scenario: 2-10
The Boilermakers should be able to pick up wins against Ball State and Southern Illinois but likely won't take down Notre Dame. In conference play, Ohio State, Michigan, USC and Illinois look to be losses, while games against Minnesota, Wisconsin, Washington and Indiana won't be easy either. Purdue's best chance for a Big Ten win will come at Northwestern or vs. Rutgers, but neither are a given.
Rutgers
Best-case scenario: 6-6
Worst-case scenario: 3-9
The Scarlet Knights benefit from a soft nonconference schedule and games against Purdue and Maryland, but the rest of the schedule is a murderer's row featuring most of the top teams in the conference. Picking up conference wins will be difficult, and reaching bowl eligibility will likely require an upset or two.
UCLA
Best-case scenario: 6-6
Worst-case scenario: 3-9
The Bruins have a tough nonconference draw with Utah, UNLV and New Mexico State, plus Penn State, Ohio State and USC in conference play. Games against Northwestern and Maryland should lead to conference wins, but the rest will be tough.
USC
Best-case scenario: 10-2
Worst-case scenario: 6-6
The Trojans have a tough nonconference battle against Notre Dame but should also rack up two easy victories against Missouri State and Georgia Southern. In Big Ten action, USC takes on Oregon, Michigan, Illinois and Iowa, which should prove difficult, but playing UCLA, Northwestern and Purdue balances it out with some supposedly easy wins.
Washington
Best-case scenario: 9-3
Worst-case scenario: 6-6
The Huskies should pick up a trio of easy nonconference victories, plus wins over Maryland, Rutgers and Purdue. Playing Ohio State and Oregon will be tough, but those games come at home. The toughest road trips are at Michigan and Wisconsin, which are tough but winnable. Washington should have no trouble reaching bowl eligibility, but there are several expected losses against top conference foes.
Wisconsin
Best-case scenario: 7-5
Worst-case scenario: 3-9
The Badgers have two cupcakes to open the season followed by a trip to Alabama, meaning a likely 2-1 start. Wisconsin has a brutal stretch in conference play featuring games at Michigan, vs. Iowa, vs. Ohio State, at Oregon, vs. Washington, at Indiana, vs. Illinois and at Minnesota, in which the Badgers may be underdogs in every game.