Court Vision: Revisiting our preseason predictions, making some for NCAA Tournament

New York Times

07-03-2025

We finally made it. The last Court Vision column of the season.
It's hard to believe we're a week away from filling out brackets, but before we dive into hoops one final time, a thank you to everyone who read and followed this column in its inaugural season. Hopefully, you enjoyed bouncing around the college hoops landscape as much as I did and maybe learned a thing or two along the way.
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With that said, back to basketball — and one of our (least) favorite things about the Internet era: preseason predictions through a revisionist lens.
Nothing ages as poorly — especially in the transfer portal era — as (somewhat) educated guesses before a single game has been played. You're always liable to end up on Freezing Cold Takes when you publish preseason predictions. Yet we do it anyway.
So, with the gift of hindsight, how did I do?
1. High-major tournament team from 2024 that's most likely to miss the tournament in 2025: Back around Halloween, I chose. Wisconsin. Oops. Strong start, huh?
My logic, like many others, was based on the fact that Greg Gard lost two of his best players in the transfer portal — AJ Storr (Kansas) and Chucky Hepburn (Louisville) — while seemingly not adding appropriate replacements. John Tonje was a solid player at Colorado State, but after a lost year due to injury at Missouri, it was fair to question how effective he would be. (If anyone tells you they 'predicted' Tonje would emerge as a first-team All-American, no they did not.)
Of course, I could not have been more wrong about Tonje, who is 10th among high-major players in scoring (19.1 points per game) and who looks like the Big Ten Player of the Year. He has been the centerpiece of the best offense in Gard's tenure and Wisconsin's best — at least according to adjusted offensive efficiency rating — since the Badgers' 2015 runner-up team. His ability to devastate opponents from deep (38.1 percent from 3-point range on 5.5 attempts per game) and bully them as a driver has made the 6-foot-5 wing one of the sport's toughest covers, and that's without mentioning his 91.8 percent free-throw shooting, the sixth-best of any high-major player.
Beyond Tonje, John Blackwell has taken a massive leap as a sophomore, and Wisconsin's other role players — Nolan Winter, Max Klesmit, Kamari McGee and redshirt freshman (a former preferred walk-on) Jack Janicki — all complement those two. Wisconsin being the best free-throw shooting team in America (83.4 percent) is a key arrow in the quiver.
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Other preseason staff votes: Colorado, NC State, Clemson, Mississippi State, Northwestern, Virginia, South Carolina
2. Most interesting mid-major: I picked McNeese State, which held up pretty well. Will Wade's team is 25-6, easily won the Southland and is rolling toward a second straight NCAA Tournament experience, but other worthwhile candidates have emerged here.
Such as UC San Diego, one of KenPom's highest-ranked mid-majors with the sort of turnover-forcing defense (third nationally, per KenPom) typically befitting our favorite Cinderellas. Or Drake, which won the Missouri Valley in Ben McCollum's first season in Division I, keyed by being in the top 15 nationally in free-throw attempt rate and the top five in defensive steal rate. VCU has a solid at-large case should it not win the Atlantic 10 tournament, and should any of George Mason, Dayton or Saint Joseph's do so instead, all three could win games in March.
Other preseason staff votes: Arkansas State, Bradley, Grand Canyon, Princeton, Saint Joseph's, Saint Louis
3. Bold prediction: Verbatim, from October: 'Rick Pitino makes his postseason return in a big way, leading St. John's to the Elite Eight.'
Bullseye. (To be fair, we nailed most of these.) But as was mentioned in this week's national mailbag, St. John's is one team currently slated not to be a No. 1 or 2 seed that I have the most confidence in. A dominant, turnover-forcing defense? Check; The Red Storm are second nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom, and also in the top 20 in 2-point defense, block rate and steal rate. Positional length and physicality? Also yes: The Johnnies only have one rotation player under 6-4 (6-0 guard Deivon Smith), compared to an army of 6-7 to 6-9 wings and forwards. Dominant offensive rebounding? Try the 10th-best in the country and third-best among all high-major teams. Those are all hallmarks of teams who tend to make deep tournament runs.
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But — and of course, there's a 'but' — St. John's offense is not great, to put it lightly: sub-300 nationally in 3-point percentage and free-throw percentage, sub-200 in effective field-goal percentage and free-throw rate. Basically, the Johnnies can't shoot, which … kind of matters in basketball. That shortcoming forces them to live inside the arc — they compensate by making the fifth-most 2s in D-I — which can be limiting. Now, if anyone could turn a team with an offense this anemic into a contender, it's Pitino, but it's understandable to wonder about a team this offensively challenged.
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4. Best roster makeover: Not to toot my own horn — and admittedly, Duke was not the most daring choice — but again, from the preseason:
'Betting big on freshmen in this era has not exactly paid dividends … but not all freshmen are Cooper Flagg. Flagg is legitimately the best high schooler I've ever seen, and Jon Scheyer's willingness to let Jeremy Roach and multiple former five-star recruits leave this offseason — just to better maximize the fit around Flagg for the nine months he's in Durham — speaks to his similar belief. Flagg should be that good. Duke did add some experienced, enforcer-type transfers like Mason Gillis (Purdue), Maliq Brown (Syracuse) and Sion James (Tulane) to complement the young'uns, and Tyrese Proctor has to take another leap, but I'm cautiously optimistic Scheyer's third season will be his best. The Final Four isn't just the goal for the Blue Devils; it's eminently attainable.'
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That's a 10/10 call. There are four true frontrunners right now — Duke and Auburn in Tier 1A, Houston and Florida in Tier 1B — but if you want to make the argument for Duke as the odds-on favorite, you'll find no resistance here. Flagg has been even better than anyone could have imagined, including Scheyer, and could culminate the best freshman season of all time by cutting down the nets in San Antonio.
Other preseason staff votes: Alabama, Arkansas, Cincinnati, Gonzaga, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, Rutgers, Texas A&M, Xavier
5. Final Four and champion: Alabama, Duke and Iowa State have all endured as at least reasonable Final Four picks. But Kansas winning it all? We struck out on that one. More on the Jayhawks below, but if KU wins the national championship this season, Bill Self should retire on the spot because he'll never complete a more miraculous coaching job.
Barring a run in the SEC tournament, and perhaps even with one, Alabama almost certainly has cost itself a No. 1 seed the past few weeks, losing four of its past six. They were all against top-15 teams, but there's too much competition at the top to drop that many games in short succession.
The Crimson Tide's defense remains a work in progress, as does its rotation, its late-game tactics and its ability to hold on to the ball. Nate Oats' team will still be one of the toughest outs in the field, but there are question marks. As for Iowa State, injuries and illness have rocked the boat, and Tuesday's wild double-overtime loss to BYU proved there are still some things T.J. Otzelberger's team needs to work out. I'm still a believer in the Cyclones, but that faith has been shaken somewhat during the past few weeks.
Other preseason staff votes: UConn, Houston, Gonzaga, Baylor, Arkansas, Texas A&M
In quick-hitter fashion, because we'll have plenty more content coming in a week once the bracket is finalized. And because one man can only handle so much Internet mocking.
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Preseason darling that doesn't make the second weekend: Kansas. The Jayhawks looked a little better against Texas Tech on Saturday, but the complete dearth of 3-point and free-throw shooting — not to mention the general bad vibes coming out of Lawrence — is screaming Round of 32 upset.
Mid-major that makes the Sweet 16: VCU. Can I interest you in a team that's in the top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom — fueled by being in the top 10 in 2-point defense and block rate — that also has the 14th-best offensive rebounding rate in America? And a coach, Ryan Odom, who has taken two other mid-majors (UMBC and Utah State) to the Big Dance? And that has two legitimate stars in graduate guard Max Shulga and Joe Bamisile? This might be Odom's last time coaching a mid-major, as he's a strong candidate for the Virginia job.
Bold prediction: The ACC will get only three teams into the field — its fewest since 1999 when the league had half as many members — but Duke, Clemson and Louisville will make the Sweet 16. Louisville only has one loss since Christmas, but surprisingly, it's the Cardinals' defense that is paving the way. Per Bart Torvik, UL is 11th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency during that stretch. As for Clemson, beating Duke proves the Tigers can hang with anyone, and their inside-outside scoring balance means they're malleable depending on their draw. Need we say more about Duke?
Final Four and champion: Auburn, Houston, Michigan State, Duke (champion)
Including Florida over Auburn was incredibly tempting — Alex Condon's continued emergence moves the needle — but regardless, look at that chalk. Three teams on pace to be No. 1 seeds and another high-major conference champ that could be a No. 2. Michigan State has an inevitability about it that I can't shake, and this might be Kelvin Sampson's best Houston team. Auburn's loss to Texas A&M shouldn't be worrisome in the big picture, but like Bruce Pearl said afterward, you know how teams will attack the Tigers from here on out. And for the last time in this space — I promise — Duke has everything you could want in a national champion: a superstar in Flagg, complementary NBA talent, elite defense, supporting players who understand roles, versatility, length and veterans (like Mason Gillis) who have made deep tournament runs before.
First things first: In no way does one road loss to a ranked conference opponent, days after clinching the best high-major league we may have ever seen — without a key starter, to boot — do anything to diminish what Auburn has accomplished or what it's capable of in the Big Dance. Anyone knocking the Tigers, who still have the fifth-best net rating of any team in the 29-season KenPom era, because of Tuesday's loss to Texas A&M is, in Logan Roy parlance, not a serious person.
But at the same time: How did A&M deal Auburn its third loss all season?
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By dominating the offensive boards — shocker, for the best offensive rebounding team in America — but perhaps more importantly (at least for any opponent trying to copy A&M's formula), by wearing Auburn down offensively.
Start on the glass, where Buzz Williams' team posted its second-most offensive boards of the season, 24, and its most against a high-major opponent. That's nothing new for Texas A&M, but what is new is how relatively easily the Aggies were able to get to their spots around the rim. Watch how seemingly effortless it was for 6-7, 220-pound forward Andersson Garcia (No. 11) to move Johni Broome, who has three inches and 20 pounds on him, off his spot next to the rim. Broome started the play with one foot in the circle, but ended it with both feet outside of the paint:
Not to pick on Broome, but later in the game, he was still thinking about Garcia. Watch him visibly turn to look at Garcia, then throw his body into him. But one problem: Broome didn't make contact when he first looked, so when he turned back to the ball and threw his body in Garcia's direction, Garcia let Broome do so, easily sidestepping him to get in position for another potential offensive board:
The film was also a rough watch for Chad Baker-Mazara (No. 10), who already has a leaner frame at 6-7 and 180 pounds, but who was not putting his body on the line at certain points. He took the Broome approach and threw all his momentum in one direction but again, without making contact first. Solomon Washington (No. 9) easily sidestepped Baker-Mazara. The rebound falling in Washington's lap wasn't just fortuitous:
On the flip side, defensively, Texas A&M's average adjusted possession length — aka, how long the Aggies play defense per possession — is 18.2 seconds, per KenPom. (Duke, Clemson, and Marquette, all of which have top-30 defenses, are tied for the longest average adjusted defensive possession, at 19.1 seconds.) That's a strong indicator of a team's defensive resistance and how it forces opponents to work beyond their initial actions. Texas A&M is 15th amongst high-major teams in that respect, a testament to the walls it builds. That was paramount all game, but never more so than in the second half during Auburn's attempted comeback. Instead, the Tigers regularly worked deep into the shot clock, exhausting tons of energy, only to get looks like this:
Or a possession that ended like this:
Of course, not many teams have the personnel to do this to Auburn, which has the best offense in America, but it is certainly something the Tigers seem destined to run into down the road in their pursuit of six straight wins. In addition to A&M, nine other projected NCAA Tournament teams are also in the top 25 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage and adjusted defensive efficiency: Duke, Florida, Houston, Tennessee, Arizona, Michigan State, St. John's, Saint Mary's and VCU. Georgia and Illinois are close, sitting just outside those parameters.
The point is if you're looking for teams that can realistically replicate some of what A&M did Tuesday to beat Auburn, that's your list. Hopefully, we get at least one of those matchups in the Final Four.
(Top photo of John Tonje: John Fisher / Getty Images)