Shayne O'Cass tips, race-by-race analysis for 2025 Lord Mayor's Cup day at Rosehill Gardens

News.com.au

2 days ago

Form expert Shayne O'Cass analyses Saturday's 10-race card at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday, presenting his race-by-race tips and analysis.
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SARAPO (3) is a Frankel out of a Le Havre (won the French Derby) mare; thus blessed with a double cross of Sadler's Wells. Can't you just see this colt in a Guineas or Derby and whatever else in years to come? Massive debut run on a track and distance that worked against him. Stablemate HIDDEN ACHIEVEMENT (1) – who was scratched from the Sires – beat him that day. Might do again given the better draw. Set up for a really absorbing clash to start the day.
BET: SARAPO (3) to win, exacta 3 to beat 1.
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ROSES IMMINENTE (12) was my bet in the Scone stand-alone Highway and while it says 10th of 16; she drew 14, was last on the corner and in a bit of traffic too. Drawn well this time and is one for one on a Heavy 9. ZOOMORPHIC (11) is a Zoustar son of Group 1 winner, Spright. Won at Mudgee by five lengths before another pretty emphatic win at Dubbo. Ready and able for a Highway debut. WARRIOR FOR PEACE (10) came from 13th of 15 to win in the last stride at Scone on Cup Day. Big win.
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EVERYONE'S A STAR (6) 's best runs are at 1100m. Wouldn't say she is an out and out muddie but she'll handle Soft if we get there on the day. This will be her sixth Midway in a row and bar that Heavy 8 one here on April 1, they've all been good. LADY EXTREME (7) has only missed a medal once in her nine starts (tick). Her two Midway runs were both seconds in better ones than this. KHUMBILAT (5) trialled well behind Ribusto and Semillion here recently.
BET: EVERYONE'S A STAR (6) each-way (unless Heavy) otherwise LADY EXTREME (7) to win.
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KUNDABUNG (9) was a $450,000 MM Yearling. He's by the super sire Super Seth out of an O'Reilly mare; the same as Australian Guineas winner, Feroce and the Black Opal placegetter, Sanctified. Got quality miler written all over him. HOPPER (8) resumed with a confidence boosting win at the Farm on May 7 beating Gunroom who won at Canterbury on Wednesday. Onwards and upwards for this superbly-bred Snitzel son. The draw? Hmmm. We'll find out whether that helped or hindered on the day.
BET: KUNDABUNG (9) to win.
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SUMMER FLAME (5) was $61 for no good reason when won the Denise's Joy at Scone, running 1.02.66s as it happens. This is 1100m again, only this time, she is racing at home. Not sure what the wide draw means to her, it might actually help her. We will know by now anyway. Ditto that last bit for LULUMON (1) who has drawn even wider still. This Jason Coyle-trained daughter of Vancouver is one of the best muddies on the card; don't forget she beat a decent field of Benchmark 78 Fillies and Mares here on a 10 back on December 7 last year.
BET: SUMMER FLAME (5) each-way.
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KAZALARK (11) is grandson of Sarwatch who was herself a multiple stakes-winning daughter of Riverina Charm. This Chris Waller-trained son of Vadamos' lone win so far, and in only five starts, was on a Heavy 8 at Hawkesbury so he's got that boxed well and truly ticked. Take note; that was second-up as he is here. GUZUMPED (10) is first-up after contested The Wave and the 2200m MM Trophy in January. Wouldn't read much, if anything, into his 'bad' trials; he goes better on race day.
BET: KAZALARK (11), GUZUMPED (10) each-way.
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UNSTOPABULL (9) finishes in the placings at a tick above 50 per cent which makes him an appealing betting proposition for each-way punters, more so given he was $8/$2.70 on Thursday morning. The Chris Waller-trained galloper ran a huge race first-up at Scone behind Zealously and Dollar Magic. His father was a mudder, his mother was a mudder and so is he.
BET: UNSTOPABULL (9) to win.
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FIRST LIGHT (6) shares an honour roll with the likes of Carbine, Phar Lap, Wakeful, Flight, Gunsynd and others as a Colin Stephen winner. He actually ran rather well in a Metropolitan too which suggests he is more a 2400m horse he's only third-up into the prep and on a positive trajectory despite what the form guide suggests. Fascinated by MORMONA (12). How is it a 100/1 shot? If we get into the Soft range, this is doable for this Bagot placegetter who trialled really well behind Ingham winner Robusto the other day.
BET: FIRST LIGHT (6) each-way, MORMONA (12) to place.
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KIND WORDS (7) (in the Lucia Valentina colours) was beaten three lengths in the Prov/Midway Final. She paid a big price for her 15 of 15 draw there at Randwick a fortnight later. As for last start, she drew wide again and came from a mile back again to finish inches off the winner, in third. Deserves a win; can see why she is favourite here. SEAFALL (4) was going to win a long, long way out last start. Drew well you see, but that is so far from the case this time.
BET: KIND WORDS (7) to win.
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Got the emergency on top here, SUMMER FLAME (22), but expecting her to run in an earlier race. I have to admit to be a big Totoka man since she won a Two-Year-Old Maiden at Canterbury one summer night in February last year. Sad fact is, she is going to lose more races than she wins just because of her slow early/fast late pattern but when the stars align, she could win a decent stakes race. MISS JENNIFER (14) has raced without luck lately. Is barrier 23 (minus all the scratchings) actually a slice of good luck? Could be.