NASCAR Cup Series at Kansas odds, predictions: Kyle Larson favored at our experts' favorite track

New York Times

10-05-2025

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Kansas City for one of the — if not the — best current tracks for the Next Gen car and a really entertaining day of racing. Kyle Larson leads the odds, but Team Penske is looking speedy right now and 23XI Racing used to be the team to beat at this track.
So, what should we expect on Sunday? Our NASCAR experts, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi, are here to break down what last week's Texas race hints for Kansas, why Ross Chastain isn't being talked about enough and who they're picking as favorites and long shots at Kansas Speedway on Sunday.
Take it away, guys!
We missed last week, thanks to this editor *ahem* being at the Kentucky Derby. But we're back! What was your top takeaway from the Texas race as it relates to how the field is doing heading into Kansas and then the All-Star race?
Jeff: In 2023, Tyler Reddick won at Kansas and continued 23XI Racing's string of successful runs to the extent it became practically a given that the team would be one to beat at the 1.5-mile track. But last year, something weird happened: Neither Reddick nor teammate Bubba Wallace finished in the top 15 of either Kansas race, and Reddick even finished 25th in the playoff race there before eventually making the Championship 4.
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So when I asked Reddick what to expect from him at Kansas before the Texas race, he said he'd put a lot of stock into how 23XI performed at the Fort Worth intermediate track.
'They're not very similar, but a car that is going to run good here, have performance and have speed here, will have speed at Kansas,' Reddick said.
Reddick was then arguably the fastest car at Texas despite never getting control of the race (and ultimately spinning himself across Daniel Suarez's nose while running in the top five). But what I took from Texas was that we might see 23XI about to emerge with some speed.
Jordan: The drivers we expected to be strong at Texas essentially were Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin and William Byron, who each stood out at various points. And with Texas and Kansas having some similar characteristics, it's not a reach at all to think that everyone within this group will be in contention for the win this weekend. The noticeable difference between these two tracks, however, is that Texas is a much more treacherous oval with a penchant for producing a multitude of accidents, often because a driver loses control off Turn 2 or hits a nasty bump in Turn 4. Kansas is challenging, but not to this degree.
You asked before last week's race if Texas Motor Speedway is turning a corner. Is it?
Jeff: I don't know if it's racing much differently, but people seem to be coming around to the fact that it's a place that requires drivers to 'race the racetrack' more than each other. In other words, it's not like a Kansas or Homestead where they have the ability to run all over the place and just race it out. The drivers don't seem to know what's going on, either. As Reddick said, it looks like it's aging when they walk the track, but then it doesn't race any differently. Here's William Byron: 'I've had the opinion for a while now that the asphalt they've used here is just different than what we've had in the past. It's really dusty. It just seems like the rubber kind of sits on top of the racetrack, and there's just all this little dust and crumbs on top that I feel like are hard to work out of the track. It looks way grayer — looks like it should be 15 years old — but it still has a ton of grip. It's just odd.'
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Jordan: Recent Texas races are certainly more entertaining than before, though admittedly that's a low bar. Still, Texas deserves praise for the improvements it's made — including attendance increasing by double digits and growth in other key metrics. And while races at Texas may often be chaotic in nature, its reputation as being one of NASCAR's most demanding tracks is not necessarily a bad thing. The place has an improved identity now than before, and this is a positive thing.
Ross Chastain has some killer restart stats, as shared by Auto Racing Analytics after Texas. Is that partially because he's coming from further back, or does he just have a unique skill set? NOOB question: What can drivers do to improve their restarts? Who would you have said is the best vs. what these stats show?
Jeff: As Auto Racing Analytics pointed out, it's not even just the total positions gained for Chastain on restarts — it's his retention rate (how often he's able to do a restart without losing positions). The account has tracked Chastain with a 91.1 percent retention rate this year, and he has lost spots on only four restarts all season. By comparison, the next-best restarters are in the low 80 percent range. When I asked Chastain about this after the race at Texas, he said: 'Yes, I see those stats and I wonder. Some of it is circumstance. Part of it is taking the very low percentage holes on restarts and trying to make it work off of Turn 2.' It's likely more of the latter, according to Auto Racing Analytics, which noted Chastain has been in the top three for restart statistics in three of the four Next Gen seasons so far.
Jordan: The restart stats speak to how well Chastain is performing this year, where he routinely is taking a car lacking speed and still finding a way to score solid finishes. Nearly every week, he is maximizing everything he can out of his car, pushing it higher up the running order than he should be otherwise. It's a very remarkable effort by Chastain that isn't getting talked about enough, but it demonstrates how gifted a driver he is.
NASCAR at Texas beat F1 Miami in viewership! At the risk of angering our NASCAR fans, that surprised me! What changed, if anything? Did NASCAR do anything to ensure better promotion? Did F1 lose traction in the U.S.?
Jeff: It's not only that NASCAR beat F1, but how it happened. NASCAR was airing on cable (FS1) while the F1 race was on network TV (ABC). Still, last year's Miami race was an outlier when it comes to F1 ratings. It had a lead-in from an NBA Playoffs Game 7, and NASCAR was also in a three-hour rain delay at Kansas, so curious NASCAR fans flipped over to Miami. F1 then wasn't able to replicate that rating for the rest of the season in the U.S., and NASCAR has continued to win the head-to-head battle domestically. Some caveats, though: F1 is obviously massively popular worldwide, and there's no comparison to NASCAR internationally; it's not even a conversation. And there was also an alarming number for NASCAR in the Miami rating: Adam Stern noted F1 won the 18-49 demographic by more than 300,000 viewers, and the viewership shows more than 80 percent of NASCAR's audience was NOT in that younger demographic. So that continues to be a very old-skewing audience for NASCAR.
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Jordan: You can decipher TV ratings in many different ways, especially with so many contributing factors. That said, NASCAR has to be absolutely pleased that it toppled F1 head-to-head and did so having its Texas race on cable rather than on a network. Definitely something to hang your hat on if you're a NASCAR decision-maker. And from a larger perspective, it may indicate that F1's once explosive growth in the United States has hit its ceiling.
OK: Kansas time! What should we know from insiders heading into Kansas that may affect the race on Sunday?
Jeff: Ah, my favorite current NASCAR track! Kansas in the Next Gen Era has turned into an incredible place to race, as evidenced by last spring's all-time banger (that was topped by the closest finish in NASCAR history). That race sits No. 1 in my 'Was it a good race?' poll with 95.8 percent of people saying yes, and that's out of 349 races in the poll since 2016. This track is about as pure as it gets in terms of NASCAR racing these days. It's all-out, hammer-down racing with multiple options where drivers can make their cars work on the track. We're about to find out who is bringing the most speed this season and watch them get their way to the front for a terrific battle.
Jordan: Kansas is arguably one of the two or three best tracks currently on the schedule, and has a strong, strong case for being P1 on the list. This is one of those races you circle before the season as 'can't miss.' And the thing is, while expectations are exceedingly high for Sunday's race, there is a likelihood that said expectations will be surpassed because Kansas is such a terrific track that has become a standard-bearer as the best of what NASCAR is.
Who is your favorite to win at Kansas?
Jeff: As mentioned earlier, this could be Reddick's breakout race for the season and mark a return to victory lane — but if the 23XI cars are fast, that could also mean a big day for Bubba Wallace. Still, despite that speed, I'm going to go with a Team Penske car and pick Ryan Blaney. I'm really liking the speed I'm seeing across Penske right now, and Blaney has arguably been the fastest car — except he hasn't won yet. That could get remedied this weekend while he also makes it three wins in a row for Penske (after Austin Cindric won at Talladega and Joey Logano won at Texas).
Jordan: The obvious pick is Kyle Larson, and for good reason. He and the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports team excel on these types of tracks and routinely factor in the outcome. In Larson's past seven Kansas races, he has two wins, two seconds and two finishes inside the top eight. That's why he's the betting favorite.
Who is a long shot you like?
Jeff: OK, so this isn't really a long shot, but how about Chris Buescher at +2200? Buescher was literally a couple of inches away from winning last year's Kansas race and showed speed again at Texas last week. If that fast car translates to Kansas, he might be able to find victory lane this time around. But as long as we're not going for big reaches on the long shots this week, Josh Berry at +2500 is a bit ridiculous. He just won the Las Vegas race earlier this season on a similar type of track and was leading at Texas last week, so there's no reason he wouldn't be able to have that Penske-caliber speed at Kansas as well.
Jordan: Josh Berry has had a lot of speed this season — not just on mile-and-a-half tracks but really most styles of tracks — and this should continue on Sunday. The area of concern, though, is that while Berry has been fast, he hasn't been able to consistently convert that speed into corresponding finishes. But if you're looking for a sleeper, Berry is easily the best, especially being listed at +2500, which is stupid high.
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(Photo of Kyle Larson: Jared C. Tilton / Getty Images)