
IMF, Serbia reach staff-level agreement on 36-month deal
BELGRADE, June 11 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Serbia have reached staff-level agreement on the first review under a 36-month arrangement to help support economic reforms, the fund said in a statement on Wednesday.
The so-called Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) was signed in October to make it easier for the Balkan country to secure lending from other sources.
Under the arrangement, Serbian authorities are committed to a fiscal deficit limit of 3% of gross domestic product over three years.
The review will be subject to approval by the IMF Executive Board, the fund said in the statement which was issued after its two-week trip to Serbia.
It also warned that downside risks for the economy were elevated.
The IMF said political tensions over anti-government protests and blockades of state universities launched last November "may weigh on confidence".
Serbia has seen months of anti-government rallies after 16 deaths from a railway station roof collapse triggered accusations of widespread corruption and negligence.
The IMF warned that a global growth slowdown and increasing "geoeconomic fragmentation could negatively affect exports and foreign direct investment".
However, it expects Serbia's economy to grow 3% this year and 4% in 2026.
"Serbia has built up substantial buffers to respond to shocks — foreign exchange reserves and government deposits are high, public debt is declining, and banks are well-capitalised and liquid," the IMF said.
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Still, there is some ambiguity around key elements of the deal, including rare earth export licenses and details of the tariffs. JPMorgan's U.S. economists calculate that, all told, the total effective U.S. tariff rate will be around 14%. When levied on $3.1 trillion of imported goods, that equates to a tax on U.S. businesses and consumers of over $400 billion. It remains to be seen how that is split, but history shows consumers bear most of the burden, they note. "The stagflationary impulse from higher tariffs has lowered our GDP growth outlook for this year (4Q/4Q) from 2.0% at the start of the year to 1.3% currently," they wrote on Thursday. On the other hand, economists at Oxford Economics on Thursday raised their 2025 U.S. GDP forecast to 1.5% from 1.3% and said the likelihood of recession has fallen. You pay your money, you take your choice. Is the Fed still in a "good place"? 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