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Job figures the fresh piece of Reserve Bank rate puzzle

Job figures the fresh piece of Reserve Bank rate puzzle

The Advertiser16 hours ago
The Reserve Bank will have a keen eye on fresh data on Australia's jobs market as its next decision on interest rates draws closer.
Labour force figures for June will be released on Thursday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and are tipped to show the unemployment rate remaining at 4.1 per cent for the month.
The predictions come despite a tightening of the jobs market.
The Reserve Bank would continue to closely monitor the jobless rate before its next meeting in August, NAB's head of Australian economics Gareth Spence said.
"I think the focus for the RBA will be ensuring the labour market remains healthy going forward," he said.
"The timing of cuts is not super important.
"It's more about where do they end up."
In a move that shocked analysts and disappointed mortgage holders, the RBA kept the cash rate steady at 3.85 per cent at its last board meeting on July 8.
Most economists had pencilled in a 25 basis point cut on the back of slowing inflation growth.
The Commonwealth Bank has forecast 20,000 jobs will have been added to the economy during June.
The participation rate is also expected to stay at the previous level of 67 per cent.
The unemployment rate has stayed at 4.1 per cent for the past three consecutive monthly readings.
The most recent figures in May came despite employment falling by 2000 people, according to the bureau's last figures.
Mr Spence still expected the jobless rate to climb to 4.4 per cent by the end of 2025, but said economic indicators point to the labour market still being in a strong position.
The Reserve Bank said in its latest monetary policy decision that labour market conditions remained tight.
"Measures of labour under-utilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers," the bank said.
"Alternatively, labour market outcomes may prove stronger than expected, given the signal from a range of leading indicators."
The Reserve Bank will have a keen eye on fresh data on Australia's jobs market as its next decision on interest rates draws closer.
Labour force figures for June will be released on Thursday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and are tipped to show the unemployment rate remaining at 4.1 per cent for the month.
The predictions come despite a tightening of the jobs market.
The Reserve Bank would continue to closely monitor the jobless rate before its next meeting in August, NAB's head of Australian economics Gareth Spence said.
"I think the focus for the RBA will be ensuring the labour market remains healthy going forward," he said.
"The timing of cuts is not super important.
"It's more about where do they end up."
In a move that shocked analysts and disappointed mortgage holders, the RBA kept the cash rate steady at 3.85 per cent at its last board meeting on July 8.
Most economists had pencilled in a 25 basis point cut on the back of slowing inflation growth.
The Commonwealth Bank has forecast 20,000 jobs will have been added to the economy during June.
The participation rate is also expected to stay at the previous level of 67 per cent.
The unemployment rate has stayed at 4.1 per cent for the past three consecutive monthly readings.
The most recent figures in May came despite employment falling by 2000 people, according to the bureau's last figures.
Mr Spence still expected the jobless rate to climb to 4.4 per cent by the end of 2025, but said economic indicators point to the labour market still being in a strong position.
The Reserve Bank said in its latest monetary policy decision that labour market conditions remained tight.
"Measures of labour under-utilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers," the bank said.
"Alternatively, labour market outcomes may prove stronger than expected, given the signal from a range of leading indicators."
The Reserve Bank will have a keen eye on fresh data on Australia's jobs market as its next decision on interest rates draws closer.
Labour force figures for June will be released on Thursday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and are tipped to show the unemployment rate remaining at 4.1 per cent for the month.
The predictions come despite a tightening of the jobs market.
The Reserve Bank would continue to closely monitor the jobless rate before its next meeting in August, NAB's head of Australian economics Gareth Spence said.
"I think the focus for the RBA will be ensuring the labour market remains healthy going forward," he said.
"The timing of cuts is not super important.
"It's more about where do they end up."
In a move that shocked analysts and disappointed mortgage holders, the RBA kept the cash rate steady at 3.85 per cent at its last board meeting on July 8.
Most economists had pencilled in a 25 basis point cut on the back of slowing inflation growth.
The Commonwealth Bank has forecast 20,000 jobs will have been added to the economy during June.
The participation rate is also expected to stay at the previous level of 67 per cent.
The unemployment rate has stayed at 4.1 per cent for the past three consecutive monthly readings.
The most recent figures in May came despite employment falling by 2000 people, according to the bureau's last figures.
Mr Spence still expected the jobless rate to climb to 4.4 per cent by the end of 2025, but said economic indicators point to the labour market still being in a strong position.
The Reserve Bank said in its latest monetary policy decision that labour market conditions remained tight.
"Measures of labour under-utilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers," the bank said.
"Alternatively, labour market outcomes may prove stronger than expected, given the signal from a range of leading indicators."
The Reserve Bank will have a keen eye on fresh data on Australia's jobs market as its next decision on interest rates draws closer.
Labour force figures for June will be released on Thursday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and are tipped to show the unemployment rate remaining at 4.1 per cent for the month.
The predictions come despite a tightening of the jobs market.
The Reserve Bank would continue to closely monitor the jobless rate before its next meeting in August, NAB's head of Australian economics Gareth Spence said.
"I think the focus for the RBA will be ensuring the labour market remains healthy going forward," he said.
"The timing of cuts is not super important.
"It's more about where do they end up."
In a move that shocked analysts and disappointed mortgage holders, the RBA kept the cash rate steady at 3.85 per cent at its last board meeting on July 8.
Most economists had pencilled in a 25 basis point cut on the back of slowing inflation growth.
The Commonwealth Bank has forecast 20,000 jobs will have been added to the economy during June.
The participation rate is also expected to stay at the previous level of 67 per cent.
The unemployment rate has stayed at 4.1 per cent for the past three consecutive monthly readings.
The most recent figures in May came despite employment falling by 2000 people, according to the bureau's last figures.
Mr Spence still expected the jobless rate to climb to 4.4 per cent by the end of 2025, but said economic indicators point to the labour market still being in a strong position.
The Reserve Bank said in its latest monetary policy decision that labour market conditions remained tight.
"Measures of labour under-utilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers," the bank said.
"Alternatively, labour market outcomes may prove stronger than expected, given the signal from a range of leading indicators."
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