‘We don't want to be the sacrificial lamb': The farmers hurt by Trump's tariffs

Sydney Morning Herald

25-04-2025

Magnolia, Kentucky: Just down the road from Caleb Ragland's farm in country Kentucky is the birthplace of Abraham Lincoln. The great statesman's parents moved in around the same time as Ragland's ancestors settled there in the early 1800s.
A ninth-generation farmer, Ragland is also the president of the American Soybean Association. So he knows a thing or two about the crop that feeds much of the world's livestock and represents more than a fifth of all US agricultural exports.
And he is deeply worried about the impact of the trade war sparked by Donald Trump's unprecedented 145 per cent tariffs on China, to which Beijing has retaliated with almost identical tariffs of its own.
'During the last trade war with China, I think 71 per cent of the agricultural losses came from soy,' Ragland said. 'That's a big number, and that's why we are so vocal on this. We have a responsibility to our membership, our fellow farmers and farm families, who are – just like my family – trying to make a living.'
Kentucky is a solid red state, and Trump increased his vote to nearly 65 per cent in November. That's especially true out on the farms. Ragland voted for Trump each time and doesn't regret it, but he is pleading with the president to strike a deal with Beijing that will see the current tariffs – which effectively amount to a trade embargo – slashed before the soybean harvest in October.
'The previous administration did little to nothing to promote trade. They just sat on their hands and didn't do anything. So I appreciate the fact that President Trump is trying to get deals done,' Ragland said. 'But on the flipside, as farmers and soybean farmers in particular, we don't want to be the sacrificial lamb at the tip of the spear on this.'
Last year, the US shipped 27 million tonnes of soybeans to China, worth about $US12.8 billion ($20.1 billion). But as a proportion, soybean exports to China never fully recovered from the 2018 trade war, with China now relying more heavily on Brazil, and to a lesser extent, Argentina, Uruguay and Canada.
Plus, the wholesale price of soybeans has dropped 40 per cent over the last three years, from $US17 a bushel to $US10. 'That's a tough combination,' Ragland said. 'Myself and most other farms, we want to make our living from the market. We want to get a fair price and basically not have any artificial barriers built up that hurt our ability to fully use the market and have trade.'