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USA-Russia war may happen due to Donald Trump, Vladmir Putin?

USA-Russia war may happen due to Donald Trump, Vladmir Putin?

Economic Times3 days ago
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U.S. President Donald Trump gave Moscow a 50-day deadline to agree to a ceasefire or face tougher sanctions. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Sunday that Russia is open to peace with Ukraine, but achieving its goals remains a priority. Peskov and other Russian officials have repeatedly rejected accusations from Kyiv and its Western partners of stalling peace talks. Meanwhile, Moscow continues to intensify its long-range attacks on Ukrainian cities, launching more drones in a single night than it did during some entire months in 2024, and analysts say the barrages are likely to escalate.Russian President Vladimir Putin 'has repeatedly spoken of his desire to bring the Ukrainian settlement to a peaceful conclusion as soon as possible. This is a long process, it requires effort, and it is not easy,' Peskov told state television in an interview. 'The main thing for us is to achieve our goals," he said. 'Our goals are clear.'The Kremlin has insisted that any peace deal should see Ukraine withdraw from the four regions that Russia annexed in September 2022, but never fully captured. It also wants Ukraine to renounce its bid to join NATO and accept strict limits on its armed forces — demands Kyiv and its Western allies have rejected.In his nightly address on Saturday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that his officials have proposed a new round of peace talks this week. Russian state media on Sunday reported that no date has yet been set for the negotiations, but said that Istanbul would likely remain the host city.Trump threatened Russia on July 14 with steep tariffs and announced a rejuvenated pipeline for American weapons to reach Ukraine, hardening his stance toward Moscow after months of frustration following unsuccessful negotiations aimed at ending the war. The direct Russia-Ukraine negotiations in Istanbul resulted in several rounds of prisoner exchanges but little else.The U.S. president said that he would implement 'severe tariffs' unless a peace deal is reached within 50 days. He provided few details on how they would be implemented, but suggested they would target Russia's trading partners in an effort to isolate Moscow in the global economy.In addition, Trump said that European allies would buy 'billions and billions' of dollars of U.S. military equipment to be transferred to Ukraine, replenishing the besieged country's supplies of weapons. Included in the plan are Patriot air defense systems, a top priority for Ukraine as it fends off Russian drones and missiles.Doubts were recently raised about Trump's commitment to supply Ukraine when the Pentagon paused shipments over concerns that U.S. stockpiles were running low.Elsewhere, Ukraine's air force said that it shot down 18 of 57 Shahed-type and decoy drones launched by Russia overnight into Sunday, with seven more disappearing from radar.Two women were wounded in Zaporizhzhia, a southern Ukrainian region partly occupied by Russia, when a drone struck their house, according to the regional military administration. Two more civilians were wounded in Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv province, after a drone slammed into a residential building, local Ukrainian officials said.Later Sunday, drones struck a leafy square in the center of Sumy, wounding a woman and her 7-year-old son, officials said. The strike also damaged a power line, leaving around 100 households without electricity, according to Serhii Krivosheienko, of the municipal military administration.Meanwhile, Russia's Defense Ministry said that its forces shot down 93 Ukrainian drones targeting Russian territory overnight, including at least 15 that appeared to head for Moscow. At least 13 more drones were downed on the approach to the capital on Sunday, Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said. One drone struck a residential building in Zelenograd, on the outskirts of Moscow, damaging an apartment, but caused no casualties, he said.A1. President of Russia is Vladimir Putin.A2. President of USA is Donald Trump.
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The US fertility rate reached a new low in 2024, CDC data shows
The US fertility rate reached a new low in 2024, CDC data shows

Economic Times

time11 minutes ago

  • Economic Times

The US fertility rate reached a new low in 2024, CDC data shows

Synopsis U.S. fertility rate hits a record low of 1.6 children per woman in 2024, raising concerns after previously maintaining replacement levels. Despite Trump administration's efforts to boost birth rates, experts like Leslie Root suggest it's a fertility delay, noting continued population growth. CDC data reveals a 1% birth increase, totaling 3. AP FILE - The toes of a baby are seen at a hospital in McAllen, Texas, on Wednesday, July 29, 2020. (AP Photo/Eric Gay, File) The fertility rate in the U.S. dropped to an all-time low in 2024 with less than 1.6 kids per woman, new federal data released Thursday shows. The U.S. was once among only a few developed countries with a rate that ensured each generation had enough children to replace itself - about 2.1 kids per woman. But it has been sliding in America for close to two decades as more women are waiting longer to have children or never taking that step at all. The new statistic is on par with fertility rates in western European countries, according to World Bank data. Alarmed by recent drops, the Trump administration has taken steps to increase falling birth rates, like issuing an executive order meant to expand access to and reduce costs of in vitro fertilization and backing the idea of "baby bonuses" that might encourage more couples to have kids. But there's no reason to be alarmed, according to Leslie Root, a University of Colorado Boulder researcher focused on fertility and population policy. "We're seeing this as part of an ongoing process of fertility delay. We know that the U.S. population is still growing, and we still have a natural increase - more births than deaths," she said. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released the statistic for the total fertility rate with updated birth data for 2024. In the early 1960s, the U.S. total fertility rate was around 3.5, but plummeted to 1.7 by 1976 after the Baby Boom ended. It gradually rose to 2.1 in 2007 before falling again, aside from a 2014 uptick. The rate in 2023 was 1.621, and inched down in 2024 to 1.599, according to the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics. Birth rates are generally declining for women in most age groups - and that doesn't seem likely to change in the near future, said Karen Guzzo, director of the Carolina Population Center at the University of North Carolina. People are marrying later and also worried about their ability to have the money, health insurance and other resources needed to raise children in a stable environment. "Worry is not a good moment to have kids," and that's why birth rates in most age groups are not improving, she said. Asked about birth-promoting measures outlined by the Trump administration, Guzzo said they don't tackle larger needs like parental leave and affordable child care. "The things that they are doing are really symbolic and not likely to budge things for real Americans," she said. Increase in births in new data The CDC's new report, which is based on a more complete review of birth certificates than provisional data released earlier this year, also showed a 1% increase in births - about 33,000 more - last year compared to the prior year. That brought the yearly national total to just over 3.6 million babies born. But this is different: The provisional data indicated birth rate increases last year for women in their late 20s and 30s. However, the new report found birth rate declines for women in their 20s and early 30s, and no change for women in their late 30s. What happened? CDC officials said it was due to recalculations stemming from a change in the U.S. Census population estimates used to compute the birth rate. That's plausible, Root said. As the total population of women of childbearing age grew due to immigration, it offset small increases in births to women in those age groups, she said.

India trade deal likely will get shifted to September 2, the due date for decision on Russian oil as well: Ajay Bagga
India trade deal likely will get shifted to September 2, the due date for decision on Russian oil as well: Ajay Bagga

Economic Times

time13 minutes ago

  • Economic Times

India trade deal likely will get shifted to September 2, the due date for decision on Russian oil as well: Ajay Bagga

Market expert Ajay Bagga anticipates trade deals, like those between the UK and Japan, to boost markets. Several Asian countries are pursuing similar agreements, while Korea has engaged with the US. Bagga notes that India might receive an extension on a Russian oil decision, potentially leading to a trade deal with the US. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads , Market Expert, says trade deals are anticipated to boost markets. The UK and Japan deals are inspiring others. Indonesia, Philippines, and Vietnam already have deals. Malaysia and Thailand are aiming for deals this week. Korea has engaged with the US. A Russian oil decision is expected on September 2. India might get an extension until it is a very pleasant surprise and a very welcome move. We have seen the action happening across Asian markets. Even though Europe opened up, Europe is also in a celebratory mode. Directionally, it is pointing towards more deals coming and hopefully Europe and India both will be able to get a deal done. Overall, 10 days back, it looked a very dismal picture as far as Japan was concerned. In fact, President Trump issued letters to Korea and Japan, levying 25% tariffs on them. Japan went into elections without a deal and if this had happened last week, maybe the Liberals would have got a better outcome in the upper house elections. They lost the majority in the upper house and one of the reasons apart from inflation was this policy uncertainty leading to corporates being very uncertain in terms of fresh investments and consumers being very uncertain about safety of their timing-wise, the Japanese prime minister must be wishing that if the deal had come last week, it would have helped him a lot. Overall, it is pointing towards a more reasonable level of tariff coming onto major trade partners. So, Europe, for example, anything from 30% to 50% Trump has been talking about, but it will settle nearer to 15%. India has also discounted a 15% overall and the way the UK-India FDA has worked out, we might get something like that with the US as well with foreign cars coming in at a very reduced 10%, opening up some of the agricultural produce where we are already importing from the US and also a lot of goods being opened UK deal is giving some ideas. As is the Japan deal. With Indonesia, Philippines, and Vietnam having cracked deals, Malaysia and Thailand are now looking at cracking deals this week. Korea has sent a delegation to the US. So, hopes are high and it will be a very strong catalyst for our markets. It would not happen by the 1st August deadline and the next two days are critical because the US customs will need about a week to update their computers with the new tariff deal. So, nothing will happen after 25th next 2-3 days are critical. We will get some news flow, some deals happening. India will get one month more and September 2 is the date for the Russian oil decision as well. So, probably India will get shifted to September 2 and when the Americans are here next month, probably we will get some kind of a deal coming on is amazing that institutions and promoters have been lightening their holdings and the Indian retail via the DIIs which have been absorbing all of it. So, quite remarkable. Normally we would be worried when insiders are selling. They obviously are the most well-informed about the health of the companies, but this time around, we have seen promoters selling off nearly Rs 150,000 crore in QIPs, and OFS (offers for sale) coming the good news is there is a lot of liquidity in the market which is absorbing both primary offerings in the market with a lot more IPOs being scheduled for the second half and this promoter selling that we have seen has not had a bad impact on the market. Yes, if it was not there and this Rs 150,000 crore was coming into the secondary market, we would probably have crossed the September all-time highs already. So, it has just been postponed. But the good news is that the impact cost has not been that a week or so, we see some impact on the stocks and then fresh buying starts again. So, it is a function of the elevated valuations where promoters are cashing out some of their chips but there is retail money on the sides which is absorbing all of it.

How decline of PM Ishiba's LDP reflects ‘Trump effect' on Japan
How decline of PM Ishiba's LDP reflects ‘Trump effect' on Japan

First Post

time13 minutes ago

  • First Post

How decline of PM Ishiba's LDP reflects ‘Trump effect' on Japan

The Trump effect—embodied in both American policy and its global ideological footprint—has found fertile ground in Japan's political soil read more The ruling coalition in Japan, comprising the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior partner, Komeito, suffered a significant political setback in the recent Upper House elections, reducing them to a minority status. This follows their earlier disappointing performance in the October 2024 Lower House elections, which had already cost them a majority. As it stands, the coalition now finds itself in the minority in both chambers of the National Diet, a rare and politically precarious position that may foreshadow deeper shifts in Japan's political landscape. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Of the 125 Upper House seats contested, 124 were regular seats, while one was a by-election. The electoral system gives voters two votes: one for a candidate in their local constituency and another for a political party through proportional representation. Fifty of the seats were filled via the latter method, with the remaining 75 chosen by direct constituency vote. Prior to the election, the LDP-Komeito coalition held 75 uncontested seats. Their target was modest: secure at least 50 seats out of the 125 up for grabs, enough to maintain a slim majority. However, the results fell short. The coalition won only 47 seats, three fewer than needed for a majority. The LDP, under Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, lost 13 seats, while Komeito dropped six. Meanwhile, the opposition bloc made substantial gains, securing a combined total of 78 seats. Rising Discontent and Economic Anxiety Much of the disillusionment with the ruling coalition centres around economic frustrations. Inflation, long dormant in Japan, has resurfaced, now hovering above 3 per cent. The cost of basic necessities such as rice has doubled in the past year, and a consumption tax of 10 per cent continues to weigh heavily on consumers. Wages, by contrast, have remained stagnant, leaving many Japanese citizens struggling to maintain their standard of living. This economic squeeze has particularly affected young voters and families, prompting questions about the government's ability to manage the economy. Amid rising living costs and growing inequality, the LDP's campaign promises appeared out of touch with the daily realities of many voters. The economic unease also intersected with cultural and social anxieties, particularly regarding Japan's increasing reliance on foreign labour. The number of foreign workers has surged to around 3.8 million, roughly 3 per cent of the population, driven largely by the country's ageing demographics and labour shortages. While some view this influx as a necessary adaptation, others see it as a threat to national identity and social cohesion. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Rise of Sanseito and Populist Nationalism In this climate of dissatisfaction and uncertainty, smaller and newer political parties gained ground. One of the most striking developments in the election was the rise of the right-wing populist party Sanseito. Founded only a few years ago, Sanseito increased its representation from a single seat to 15 in the Upper House, marking a major breakthrough for Japan's radical right. Sanseito's success was built on a staunchly nationalist and anti-globalist platform. Its leader, Sohei Kamiya, frequently invoked the rhetoric and political strategies of US President Donald Trump. He called for a halt to immigration, restrictions on foreign workers, and an economic policy that would put 'Japan First'. His campaign framed foreign labour not as a solution to economic issues but as a scapegoat for them, blaming multinational corporations and globalist elites for Japan's domestic struggles. In addition to opposing immigration, Kamiya has proposed a fully independent Japanese defence force, free from US military dependency, and called for resisting American trade demands, especially in sensitive sectors like rice, beef, and automobiles. Ironically, while he borrows heavily from Trump's playbook, Kamiya positions himself as a defender of Japanese sovereignty against Trump policies that have been seen as exploitative or unfair toward Japan. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The appeal of Sanseito's messaging, particularly among younger voters, reflects growing frustration with the LDP's perceived ineffectiveness and over-accommodation of foreign pressures. Disenchanted by stagnant wages, mounting taxes, and a sense that their voices are not heard, many young people turned away from the political mainstream and toward populist alternatives. 'Trump Effect' A key question arising from the election results is whether the so-called 'Trump effect' played a role in undermining Prime Minister Ishiba's leadership. While Ishiba has not openly opposed US influence, he has had to walk a diplomatic tightrope in recent months. His administration has faced increasing pressure from the Trump administration to increase Japan's defence spending beyond 3.5 per cent of GDP, a highly sensitive topic for many Japanese voters. Although Japan has already boosted its military budget, purchased American defence equipment, and increased its contributions to US bases on Japanese soil, the Trump administration has continued to impose punitive trade tariffs. Japan, alongside South Korea, is subject to a 25 per cent tariff bracket under Trump's trade regime, based on claims that Japan has not sufficiently opened its domestic markets, particularly in agriculture and automobiles. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD In a notable diplomatic rebuke, Japan recently cancelled a scheduled '2+2' security dialogue with the US. While Foreign Minister Iwaya Takeshi did attend a Quad summit in Washington, the Ishiba administration had hoped that a strong showing in the Upper House elections would enhance its leverage in ongoing trade negotiations with both the US and EU. That hope, however, now appears dashed. Post elections, Ishiba said regarding the tariff negotiations with the US, he wanted to talk in person with President Donald Trump as soon as possible to realise an agreement that is mutually beneficial. A Crisis of Confidence Public confidence in Ishiba's ability to manage relations with the US and restore Japan's economic vitality has deteriorated. A recent national poll revealed that 70 per cent of Japanese citizens lack faith in Tokyo's ability to secure favourable outcomes in its negotiations with Washington. Only 22 per cent remain optimistic. This broader sense of unease has translated into declining approval ratings for the prime minister. Ishiba's approval dropped by 6.2 percentage points in July to just 20.8 per cent, the lowest since he assumed office in October. Meanwhile, his disapproval rating climbed to 55 per cent, the highest of his tenure. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Political analysts argue that the rise of Sanseito, and other, more moderately nationalist parties is part of a larger shift in Japanese politics. Since the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe three years ago, Japan's nationalist right has lacked a unifying figure. Abe had long acted as a buffer between Japan's pragmatic conservatism and its more radical nationalist fringes. In his absence, political space has opened for new actors to challenge the traditional dominance of the LDP. These parties, while varying in extremity, often focus on a similar set of grievances: inflation, declining real incomes, tax burdens on the young to support an ageing population, and an increasingly lopsided alliance with the United States. Sanseito, in particular, has captured this mood of discontent and used it to craft a narrative that resonates with disillusioned voters. The party's momentum appears to be growing. Last month, it gained an additional seat when a member of another opposition party defected. It had also won three Lower House seats in a by-election in Tokyo last year, further solidifying its presence on the national stage. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Looking Ahead While the ruling coalition lost its majority, the LDP remains the largest political force with a total of 101 seats. 'We must understand the responsibility as the leading party and the one we have to fulfil for the nation,' Ishiba said. He also signalled his intention to keep his position after the election, saying, 'I am keenly aware of [my] responsibilities.' Japan's political future is now uncertain. The ruling coalition's dual minority status will complicate legislative efforts and make it harder to implement any coherent agenda. Ishiba's government will likely face increasing internal dissent, coalition instability, and challenges from both the left and right. Whether this leads to early elections, leadership change, or further fragmentation of Japan's political landscape remains to be seen. But one thing is clear: the 'Trump effect'—embodied in both American policy and its global ideological footprint—has found fertile ground in Japan's political soil. As Japan moves forward, the electorate's shift toward populism, nationalism, and economic protectionism may redefine the country's political trajectory—and its place in the world. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The author is a former ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, ASEAN and the African Union. He tweets @AmbGurjitSingh. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost's views.

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