Bucks draft mailbag: Trade into first round? Deal No. 47? Buy another pick?

New York Times

6 hours ago

The first round of the 2025 NBA Draft occurs Wednesday night at the Barclays Center in New York City.
For the time being, though, the Milwaukee Bucks do not have a first-round pick. Barring a trade, they will not have a selection on Wednesday night, and their only draft pick is on Thursday night at No. 47 in the second round.
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There is no media availability on the team's schedule for Wednesday. Bucks general manager Jon Horst will be available following the conclusion of the second round. It will be the first time Horst has spoken publicly since his debriefing with the media following this past season's NBA trade deadline.
So, with the help of the comments section from our Bucks draft preview from last week and a few questions about young players from the mailbag earlier in the summer, let's take a closer look at a few more topics regarding this year's NBA draft.
(Note: Questions have been lightly edited for clarity and grammar.)
They don't have one now, but how could the Bucks end up with a first-round pick in this year's draft? — Troy L.
I know there are Bucks fans who would like to see the team move into the first round because that is where the most talented young players can be found. They would like to see the Bucks bring an infusion of young talent, but getting into the first round with the team's current roster and assets would require some tough decisions.
The first way to secure a spot in the first round, as we've seen from other teams in recent days, is to take on a worse contract than the one being sent out, one that carries more future years or more money. With the Bucks getting under the second apron and working on their roster flexibility over the last year, that seems like an unattractive option.
They could trade a player like AJ Green, who has proven himself on a relatively low contract, but trading him — even with an extension looming — would be a move that sends out a player the Bucks developed for the opportunity to draft and develop another player, as they did with Green.
Perhaps there is a team out there that loved Tyler Smith in last year's draft or believes they can develop Andre Jackson Jr. into a role player, but that still might not be worth a first-round pick. The Bucks can make calls and take calls on their players, but it might not end with a smart move, especially in a draft that loses some of its steam in the 20s.
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The easiest way to get into the first round would be trading their 2031 pick without protections for multiple first-round picks over the next few years as the Phoenix Suns did at this year's trade deadline when they moved their 2031 pick for (what will likely be) late first-round picks in 2025, 2027 and 2029.
However, the Bucks were not all that interested in trading their 2031 pick at the trade deadline. Additionally, avoiding a trade of the 2031 pick would allow them to enter next offseason with the ability to trade three first-round picks, which they could potentially add to the roughly $80 million of expiring contracts owed to Damian Lillard and Kyle Kuzma.
It seems as if they'll keep the No. 47 pick because it's a cheap contract. Or is there a way to move it to enhance the roster? — Dan M./Jared B.
A second-round pick is one of the cheapest contracts any team can sign, so I think there is real value in trying to find and develop a potential rotation player on such a contract. At No. 47, the Bucks may also have the opportunity to negotiate non-guaranteed money and team options into the final few years of the deal, as they did with Andre Jackson Jr. That is valuable flexibility for any team to have in the bottom half of its roster.
The Bucks would be able to move that pick, if they wanted to do so, but I think the value of second-round picks, especially late ones, has decreased dramatically over the last three or four years. As we discussed in our draft preview, the advent of the NIL era has turned the final 20 or so picks of the second round into mostly players who are 22 years old (or older) and potentially limited in upside.
In recent years, some agents have also employed the strategy of steering teams away from drafting a player, allowing that player to go undrafted and sign with a team of their choice, either as a two-way player or as an undrafted free agent signed to an NBA roster. (For example: Austin Reaves did this in 2021.)
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Aside from being a throw-in in a larger deal that sent out bigger pieces, I don't think the No. 47 pick by itself carries a ton of trade value.
Now that the Bucks are out of the second apron, are they able to buy a higher second-round pick? — Jared B.
Jared's assumption was correct. Because they are now out from under the second apron, the Bucks would be able to trade a pick for cash considerations, but there would be, in my opinion, two potential concerns in buying another pick.
I wouldn't say there is a roster crunch at this moment because of the number of free agents the Bucks have this summer, but there could be if the team finds a way to bring back a majority of its players. Suppose you take the five guaranteed contracts — Giannis Antetokounmpo, Pat Connaughton, Kuzma, Lillard, Tyler Smith — on the roster for next season, the non-guaranteed deals of AJ Green and Andre Jackson Jr., plus pick No. 47. In that case, you've already knocked out eight spots.
Then, if the Bucks find a way to retain Bobby Portis, Gary Trent Jr., Kevin Porter Jr. and Ryan Rollins, there will be 12 players on the roster with three more spots remaining. At that point, it might be nice to bring in a second cheap second-round contract, but I'd have to think there would be more desire to see if there are any veterans who could sign a minimum contract to help out for next season. While developing young players needs to be a clear goal next season, the Bucks also need to add veterans who can bring a baseline of competence.
The second concern would be the success rate of second-round picks. As I stated in my 2025 Bucks draft preview, even picks in the top half of the second round have less than a 15 percent chance of becoming a rotation player in the NBA.
Additionally, suppose the Bucks bring back players like Porter, Rollins and Green. In that case, they will need to make a conscious effort to provide those players with sufficient opportunities to develop and grow. Even in an 82-game schedule with 48 minutes a night to fill, there will be only so many opportunities in a system built around Antetokounmpo's playmaking. I'm not sure how many reps there would end up being for two second-round picks.
Does Tyler Smith have a good chance of being the backup small forward and power forward next season? — Maurice E.
We have reached the portion of summer where the roster's youngest players journey to Greece for their opportunity to work with Giannis Antetokounmpo. In recent days, we have seen Jamaree Bouyea, Jackson Jr., Chris Livingston, and Smith all post from Athens on their Instagram accounts. Bucks legend Marques Johnson added that Stanley Umude and Pete Nance will also be making the trip.
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While these annual trips have not been predictive of future success for the young players on the fringe of the Bucks' roster, getting the opportunity to spend time with the two-time MVP is always good for young players and it should be good for Smith.
Regarding Smith's minutes for next season, I'll start with this: I have never seen Smith as a small forward. If you look back at Sam Vecenie's 2024 NBA Draft Guide, this is how he started his summary on Smith:
'Smith is a serious project that I can understand a team falling in love with developmentally. His jumper is a significant weapon for his size. He'll knock down shots throughout his career, and that's meaningful at the 4 — or potentially at the 5 if he can get much stronger. However, his measurements and game make him too much of a tweener between the 4 and 5 spots right now. He's not strong or physical enough to play the 5, but also doesn't possess enough all-around skill to play the 4 yet.'
After a year, I think those same questions remain for Smith. He played 122 minutes in the NBA, but knocked down 43.3 percent of his 3-point attempts. In 363 minutes with the Wisconsin Herd in the G League, Smith hit 19 of his 50 3-point attempts (38 percent). Although the sample size is limited, his 3-point stroke appears to be effective and consistent. The Bucks need him to prove that he can provide value in other ways.
A big man who can space the floor can be a real weapon next to Antetokounmpo. I don't think Smith ever proved that he could survive on the other end of the floor as a defender or rebounder as a rookie. That was probably to be expected in his first NBA season, but that also means the Bucks will need to see a significant step forward this offseason to insert him into the rotation next season.
(Photo of Tyler Smith: Cooper Neill / NBAE via Getty Images)