Israel is scoring heavily in the skies, but is that enough against Iran?

India Today

5 hours ago

Will Israel attack Iran? When will it happen? Will the US support Israel in its misadventure? What will be the pretext? All these questions were answered when Israel launched a unilateral, preemptive strike deep into Iran on Friday the 13th.Alleging that Iran had developed enough fissile material in the past few months to build up to nine nuclear bombs, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called its Operation Rising Lion a necessary move to ensure Israel's survival. He added that waiting was no longer an option.advertisementIsrael's strikes in the first few days have been precise and punitive, striking at critical assets in Tehran. In meticulously planned intelligence operations, it eliminated the entire top military leadership of Iran, including Major General Mohammad Bagheri, the chief of Iran's Armed Forces, and Major General Hossein Salami, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps chief. It also struck key nuclear sites in Natanz and Fordow, oil depots in Shahran, key military installations, air defence assets, and the Iranian Military HQ in Tehran.
Iran was quick to retaliate and struck many parts of Tel Aviv, including a direct strike on Israel's Military HQ building Kirya, which is often called Israel's Pentagon. Iranian missiles also struck the critical port of Haifa in Israel on June 15, which reportedly caused significant damage not only to the port infrastructure but also to the oil refinery in its close vicinity.advertisementWith both nations unwilling to back down, the conflict looks set to escalate. What is interesting from a military perspective is the vastly different military capabilities of these two mighty regional powers and how each is leveraging its strengths. The degree to which they are matched up is evident from the Global Firepower Index, which ranked the militaries of Iran and Israel 16th and 15th this year. Geography also plays a crucial role. Separated by around 1,700 kilometres, a match-up of ground forces becomes more or less irrelevant. The match-up is therefore limited to stand-off weapon systems.The Military Match-upAir force: Israel has overwhelming superiority here, possessing the most modern fighter aircraft, such as the F-35 and the F-16. Its might and reach are almost unmatched by Iran's old and ageing air force. Coupled with the capabilities of air-to-air refuelling, courtesy of the US, Israel completely dominates Iran in the skies.Air defence: Israel has overwhelming superiority in air defence, with its Patriot and Arrow systems. The former is a well-tested American system that was used during the First Gulf War in 1991 to intercept Iraq's Scud missiles, and recently, to intercept long-range missiles launched by the Houthi from Yemen. The latter is a modern anti-missile defence system developed by the US to intercept long-range missiles.advertisementThe Iron Dome and Iron Shield systems, with an interception success of over 90 per cent for short-range rockets and missiles, add to the arsenal. And the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence system of the US, capable of intercepting missiles at longer ranges of 200 km and beyond Earth's atmosphere, completes the umbrella.In comparison, Iran has an old S-300 air defence system coupled with other older Russian anti-aircraft missiles. It developed the Bawar 373, which is touted to be almost as good as the Russian S-400 system. But it is yet to prove its worth. No wonder Israel declared 'air superiority' just three days into the conflict.Missile systems: It is in its missile systems that Iran holds an edge over Israel. Iran's array of missiles is the largest and most modern in the region. Many Iranian missiles are capable of carrying nuclear payloads, which has long been an international concern, leading to the UN Security Council Resolution 2231, which called upon Iran 'not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons'. In its medium- and long-range categories are the Khorramshahr-1, 2, and 3 — medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBM) with ranges of 2,000–3,000 km — the Fatah-1 with ranges of 1,400–1,700 km, and many others like the Sejjil (2,000 km) and the Paveh (1,650 km). Iran has also developed hypersonic missiles that fly at Mach 5 speeds and above and are beyond the interception capability of most anti-missile systems.advertisementIsrael, on the other hand, has more short-range missiles with ranges up to 500 km that cannot target Iran directly. However, it has Jericho-2, an MRBM with ranges of 1,500 to 3,000 km, and Jericho-3, an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) with a range of 4,800–6,500 km.Drones: In drones, both are evenly matched, although Iran may hold an edge given the number of drones it has and their Kamikaze character.Iran possesses a variety of drones and has mastered developing low-cost ones. It exported its drones to Russia, which effectively used them against Ukraine. Prominent among them is the Shahed category of drones, which are suicide or Kamikaze drones meant to explode on targets. These include the Shahed-101 and Shahed-131.Iran has also developed the longer-range Shahed-136 drones (over 2,500 km) that can carry 20–40 kg of explosives, around double that of Shahed-131, enough to cause significant damage in a non-hardened structure. The Shahed-238 drones also have jet propulsion, making them faster and capable of carrying more payload. There are also the Samad-1, 2, and 3 categories of drones, which have an effective range of 1,800 km and can carry sufficient payload to inflict damage.advertisementIn comparison, the Israeli drones are superior in technology and costlier. The major ones include the famous Heron and Hermes 900 armed drones that have a range of over 1,000 km.Nuclear weapons: Israel's arsenal of nuclear weapons is an open secret. Most analysts estimate it has 90–140 nuclear warheads. Iran, on the other hand, has no nuclear weapons yet, giving an edge to Israel.Satellite and intelligence: With its advanced satellite systems and detailed coordination with the West, Israel is way ahead of Iran in terms of satellite coverage and real-time data links. Even in terms of intelligence, Israelis have proved more than once how effective it is in penetrating enemy lines and carrying out targeted strikes. The elimination of the Hezbollah leadership in September last year, Hamas Chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in April last year, and the top Iranian military leadership recently are cases in point.advertisementProxies: Iran has traditionally leveraged the 3H (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis) to good effect in the region in the past. However, with Israel decimating Hezbollah and Hamas, Iran's proxies are not as effective against Israel as before. Israel is not known to have any proxy groups, relying mostly on its intelligence services to do the job.External support: Israel scores over Iran, with the 'iron-clad' support from the US, the UK and many other Western powers. Iran, on the other hand, is left to fight the battle largely on its own, despite strategic partnerships with Russia and China, which have not shown any direct military support yet. Also, Arab countries in the region are rather ambivalent and have chosen to watch from the sidelines.The match-up between Israel and Iran is, therefore, relatively equal. Iran has a greater capacity to absorb strikes due to its vast territory and extensive infrastructure. It is also likely to gain the upper hand if the conflict turns into a war of attrition, given the size of its economy and its military-industrial base.For Israel, the best option would be to either end the war soon or somehow get the US actively involved. In a prolonged conflict, Iran will likely prevail. Another lesson from recent conflicts, which Israel would do well to remember, is that stand-off weapon systems rarely win wars. If Gaza is still standing after three years of unprecedented punishment, Iran is a much bigger challenge for Israel and the US.(Col Rajeev Agarwal is a Foreign Policy Expert and a Senior Research Consultant at Chintan Research Foundation, New Delhi)(Views expressed in this opinion piece are those of the author)Tune InMust Watch