[Editorial] Build up strength

Korea Herald

02-04-2025

Concerns about possible US-NK talks and USFK role adjustment
US President Donald Trump has hinted at the possibility of restarting talks with North Korea.
Asked by a reporter at the White House on Monday about whether he plans to reach out to North Korea and its leader, Kim Jong-un, Trump said, 'Well, I do.'
Trump said there is communication with North Korea. He called North Korea a 'big nuclear nation.'
Though Trump did not elaborate on the communication, it is quite obvious that Washington will likely seek to reopen dialogue with Pyongyang.
If US-North Korea contacts were actually happening, it is likely that they communicate through North Korean representative to the United Nations in New York. Some speculate that the US might utilize channels with Russia to communicate with North Korea.
Trump is going to reach out to North Korea, but the way his administration treats US allies is not like that.
In the recently distributed 'Interim National Defense Strategic Guidance,' the Pentagon reoriented the US military to prioritize deterring China's seizure of Taiwan, according to an article in the Washington Post.
The Pentagon will 'assume risk in other theaters' and pressure allies in Europe, the Middle East and East Asia to take on the bulk of the deterrence role in deterring Russia, North Korea and Iran, according to the guidance.
Under the guidance, Washington is likely to pressure Seoul to increase its defense budget to deter North Korea and demand a steep increase in its share of the expenses of stationing US Forces Korea.
A possible change in the role of the US military in Korea is a grave issue to watch. The Pentagon indicated in the memo that US military deployments will be reassessed.
If US forces in Korea are reduced or partly deployed to defend Taiwan, insecurity will grow in Northeast Asia, including the Korean Peninsula. North Korea, which is always on the lookout for security gaps on the Korean Peninsula, is likelier to try bolder provocations against South Korea in such a scenario.
To make matters worse, military relations between Pyongyang and Moscow are expected to deepen further. North Korea recently disclosed photos of Kim Jong-un boarding a radar surveillance plane and inspecting the progress on the construction of a nuclear-powered submarine. Some experts suspect Russian technologies might have been introduced in that military equipment.
With South-North relations having been strained in recent years, North Korea has become very hostile to South Korea.
If the US and North Korea negotiate to restart their direct dialogue in such a precarious situation, one of the biggest concerns for South Koreans would be the possibility of South Korea being passed over.
Trump and Kim held talks in 2018 and 2019, and at that time, South Korea was practically sidelined to the role of an onlooker.
If the same pattern is repeated this time, Seoul could end up accepting the outcomes of Trump-Kim negotiations passively.
More concerning is the possibility that the dialogue will develop toward a deal lacking denuclearization.
Should North Korea get sanctions relief with its nuclear programs kept intact, South Korea would face a dangerous security situation.
With the South Korean government leadership weakened due to the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol over his martial law decree, it has been difficult for Seoul to respond preemptively to US government policies.
The Constitutional Court is scheduled to issue a sentence in Yoon's impeachment trial Friday. Afterward, the South Korean government and politicians should work together to get South Korean positions reflected well in Trump's Korea policies.
There is a very low chance of China invading Taiwan, but it is not zero. Nonetheless, should an emergency break out in the Taiwan Strait, part of the USFK resources will likely be deployed there. South Korea should brace for all possibilities. In an era when the international security order is being shaken, efforts to build strength are a must, not an option.