logo
As ASEAN touts unity, Philippines seeks consensus on South China Sea

As ASEAN touts unity, Philippines seeks consensus on South China Sea

Japan Times27-05-2025

The Philippines has called on ASEAN nations to wrap up negotiations on a code of conduct in the disputed South China Sea, a move experts say reflects Manila's growing frustration with Beijing's attempts to exploit the Southeast Asian bloc's diverging priorities as well its consensus-based model for decision-making.
Speaking at an Association of Southeast Asian Nations' summit in Kuala Lumpur that touted bloc unity, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. on Monday underscored the 'urgent need' to accelerate the adoption of a 'legally binding' code to safeguard maritime rights and prevent 'miscalculations at sea.'
Manila's call on the 10-member bloc comes as the situation between China and the Philippines has turned particularly tense, with the resource-rich waters now being the scene of regular ship collisions and rammings, and as the Chinese side repeatedly deploys flares and water cannons.
'Manila has every reason to feel frustrated with ASEAN,' said Zachary Abuza, a Southeast Asia expert and professor at the U.S. National War College.
China, he said, tends to pick on one country at a time for fear of making the South China Sea a multilateral ASEAN issue.
'Over the past few years, the Philippines has borne the brunt of Chinese aggression, while most other countries have been sitting back, breathing a sigh of relief that they are not being targeted by China,' Abuza added.
ASEAN and Beijing have been working for two decades to conclude a substantive code of conduct based on the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea to help lower the risk of confrontation. But the two sides have been at loggerheads mainly due to differences over which maritime areas the code should cover, who should be regarded as an extraregional player and whether the code would be legally binding.
A China Coast Guard ship (left) fires a water cannon at a Philippine Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources ship (center) near Sandy Cay reef in the disputed South China Sea in this screen shot from video taken on May 21. |
Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources and Philippine Coast Guard / VIA AFP-JIJI
Philippine Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo said that Manila is targeting 2026 for the code's completion, when it takes over the rotating ASEAN chairmanship from Malaysia. The top Philippine diplomat, who is set to visit Tokyo on Wednesday, also said that Manila is open to more arrangements with Beijing to help maintain peace in the strategic waterway.
But concerns remain.
There have already been calls in the past for an expedited conclusion, none of which have panned out. Experts say that, given the diverging interests within ASEAN — as well as the close ties of Cambodia and Laos to China — the 2026 deadline may not be feasible.
'Outstanding issues appear to be insurmountable at this point,' said Ian Chong, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore. 'If there is an acceleration of negotiations to a conclusion, that end agreement is likely to leave key issues insufficiently addressed.'
At the same time, the rising number of flare-ups has drawn growing regional and global attention, making it more difficult for Beijing to follow its preferred approach of solving these disputes bilaterally.
This means that China's preference of dealing with these issues one-on-one makes an ASEAN-led solution seem increasingly unlikely.
Frustrated with the slow progress on the code of conduct, the Philippines has begun turning to individual claimants to push for bilateral or minilateral engagements.
This push has prompted questions about ASEAN's effectiveness in addressing regional flash points, particularly when one of the parties isn't a bloc member.
Philippine coast guard and military personnel hold the country's flag during an inter-agency maritime operation on Sandy Cay in the disputed South China Sea on April 27. |
National Task Force on West Philippine Sea / VIA AFP-JIJI
The latter is important as individual Southeast Asian governments have a strong record of handling disputes on a bilateral basis, albeit not through ASEAN. Vietnam and Indonesia, for instance, recently moved forward on a maritime delimitation agreement.
It's a different story at the ASEAN level. Experts warn that the organization's dialogue mechanisms may not be sufficient to prevent or manage a broader regional crisis involving major powers.
They say that except for some basic principles or issues where agreement is relatively easy — such as promoting economic cooperation — the bloc has difficulty finding formal common cause.
With the exception of Vietnam, most mainland ASEAN members largely avoided the code of conduct issue. Maritime countries, either as claimants or states that use the waterway, have been reluctant to publicly back the Philippines, despite a 2016 international arbitral tribunal ruling invalidating Beijing's claims to most of the disputed waters.
'Not all ASEAN claimant states face the same kind of pressure from China, or have as many of their claimed features occupied,' said Thomas Daniel, of the Institute of Strategic and International Studies Malaysia, noting that this influences national positions and appetites for risk.
Even more of an impediment to cooperation is ASEAN claimant states' history of distrust — many are also involved in disputes with each other, not just with China.
Southeast Asian claimant states 'once believed that using the collective heft of ASEAN to negotiate with Beijing on the South China Sea might yield more favorable outcomes, but that has clearly not played out as intended,' Daniel said.
Instead, China has managed to successfully exploit 'both diverging priorities within ASEAN and the group's consensus-based decision-making to its own advantage,' he added.
Manila's frustration with the latter was voiced earlier this month by Philippine national security adviser Eduardo Ano, who urged ASEAN to be the 'strongest defender' of the concept that 'might does not make right.'
In the region, the demand for consensus has sometimes become an 'instrument for inaction and inertia,' Ano said, warning that the search for an agreement by all has become 'an obstacle to arrive at important and unified mechanisms.'
Over the past few decades, ASEAN has grown diverse in terms of interests, government types and levels of economic development, creating more decision-making challenges, given that any member state also has veto power.
'The Philippines has long recognized that some ASEAN member states are unlikely to offer outright support due to their close economic ties with China,' said Dindo Manhit, president of the Stratbase ADR Institute, one of the Philippines' leading research consultancies.
Manila's growing frustration lies in the 'lack of recognition' that China's aggressive actions in the South China Sea waters closest to the Philippines are not solely its concern, but rather a regional threat that undermines stability and the broader rules-based order, he added.
Still, it's important to note that ASEAN was never intended to be a security-focused bloc.
'ASEAN's inherent limitations must be acknowledged as it was not primarily established to address political and sociocultural issues,' Manhit said, adding that the grouping's core focus remains economic cooperation.
Given these limitations, he added, the Philippines' best course of action would be to pursue partnerships with maritime ASEAN states and like-minded countries — including Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam — to ensure freedom of navigation and overflight, as well as economic rights within their exclusive economic zones.
Aware of the limitations, Manila has in recent years begun taking matters into its own hands.
It has boosted military spending, deepened defense partnerships with countries like Japan, while also expanding security ties with outside partners such as New Zealand, Canada, India, France and Germany — moves that suggest Manila is not pinning all its hopes on the elusive code-of-conduct agreement.
These actions 'should not be seen as a reaction against any particular nation,' Manhit said, but 'rather as part of its broader strategy to strengthen its security posture and contribute to regional stability.'

Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

U.S. military drills in Philippines end — but anti-ship missile system stays
U.S. military drills in Philippines end — but anti-ship missile system stays

Japan Times

timean hour ago

  • Japan Times

U.S. military drills in Philippines end — but anti-ship missile system stays

The U.S. military has kept another advanced weapons system in the Philippines following recent joint drills, suggesting the Pentagon is using exercises to de facto deploy key weapons to the region amid growing tensions with China. The U.S. Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System (NMESIS), an advanced mobile anti-ship missile platform, 'is still within the country, and it will continue to be used by the Philippine Marine Corps for training purposes,' local media quoted Philippine Navy spokesperson Capt. John Percie Alcos as saying Tuesday after the NMESIS was used in this year's Balikatan and Kamandag joint exercises. The Balikatan drills ran from April 21 to May 9, while the Kamandag exercises took place from May 26 to June 6. The spokesperson declined to disclose the weapon's current location, citing operational security reasons, but the remarks are the first to suggest that the NMESIS, which was last spotted on the island of Batanes — located between the Philippines' Luzon island and Taiwan — could remain in the Southeast Asian country indefinitely. Leaving it with the U.S. ally would replicate a similar decision with the Typhon midrange missile system, which the Pentagon originally deployed for drills back in April 2024. Composed of an uncrewed vehicle mounting two launchers for the Naval Strike Missile, which has a range of up to 185 kilometers, the NMESIS is a coastal defense system that could be used to keep Chinese warships at bay in the event of not only conflict with the Philippines, but also with nearby Taiwan. Alcos said the NMESIS deployment should not be viewed as a threat to China, which is embroiled in increasingly heated maritime and territorial disputes in parts of the South China Sea with the Philippines. 'The presence of the NMESIS in our country is only a deterrent to anybody who intends to conduct illegal, coercive, aggressive and deceptive actions against the Philippines,' the spokesman said. 'Otherwise, it's just military equipment that we use for training.' A Typhon midrange capability launcher arrives on northern Luzon island, in the Philippines, on April 8, 2024, in the capability's first deployment into the theater. | U.S. ARMY Still, confirmation that the weapon will remain in the Philippines is likely to anger Beijing, which has already been calling for the removal of the Typhon, arguing that this weapon, in particular, is a 'strategic' and 'offensive' system. Should the Typhon and NMESIS remain on Philippine soil, China's state-owned Global Times newspaper warned in April, they would become 'a constant source of tension in the region.' According to Philippine Army chief Lt. Gen. Roy Galido, the country's armed forces have been using the Typhon to familiarize themselves with such a capability, with Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro recently telling The Japan Times that Manila has already secured funding to acquire either this or another type of midrange capability. 'We are still learning, we are still training. Just like any equipment you have, you just don't learn it one time. You have to be well-versed with the equipment,' local media quoted Galido as saying Tuesday. 'It's still our desire to have one, and we have proposed to have similar, if not that platform, within the inventory of the army,' he added. The U.S. has also deployed other advanced military systems for joint exercises with the Philippines this year. These include the HIMARS multiple rocket launchers, maritime and aerial drones such as uncrewed solar-powered surveillance vehicles and a microwave-based directed energy weapon system designed to counter drone swarms. It's unclear how many of these systems will also remain in the country, but the Philippine Navy is already known to field a unit dedicated to operating uncrewed surface vehicles after receiving a handful of U.S.-made Mantas T12 and Devil Ray T38 maritime drones. It is likely that Washington will provide additional advanced systems to Manila as it seeks to reassure its oldest ally in Asia of its 'ironclad' commitment amid tensions with China. The U.S. is also looking at greater defense-industrial cooperation with the Philippines, saying earlier this year that the allies have identified a number of areas, including uncrewed systems, ammunition components and logistical support, as well as ship and aircraft maintenance and repair. The U.S. Navy even revealed recently that one of its destroyers had participated in a simulated wartime repair activity at the Philippines' Subic Bay in January.

Bessent Emerges as Possible Contender to Succeed Fed's Powell
Bessent Emerges as Possible Contender to Succeed Fed's Powell

Yomiuri Shimbun

time4 hours ago

  • Yomiuri Shimbun

Bessent Emerges as Possible Contender to Succeed Fed's Powell

(Bloomberg) – A growing chorus of advisers inside and outside the Trump administration are pushing another name to serve as the next chair of the Federal Reserve: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. President Donald Trump said Friday he would name a successor 'very soon' to replace Jerome Powell, whose term as Fed chair ends in May 2026. The small list of candidates under consideration has included Kevin Warsh, a former Fed official whom Trump interviewed for the Treasury secretary role in November, according to people familiar with the matter. But Bessent – who is leading Trump's effort to kickstart the US economy with sweeping changes to trade, taxes and regulation – is also now one of the contenders for the job, said the people, who requested anonymity to discuss private conversations. Formal interviews for the position have not begun, two of the people said. 'I have the best job in Washington,' Bessent said in response to a request for comment. 'The president will decide who's best for the economy and the American people.' The White House did not respond to a request for comment. As Treasury chief, Bessent would traditionally play a key role in the search and interview process for the next Fed chair. It's unclear if he would recuse himself as Trump begins to make his decision. 'Given the amount of trust and confidence that the global financial community has in Scott Bessent, he's an obvious candidate,' said Tim Adams, president and CEO of the Institute of International Finance. 'He's a dark horse candidate,' Adams said, adding that Warsh – who served as a governor on the Fed board from 2006 to 2011 – would also be a good choice. Asked specifically about Warsh on Friday, Trump said: 'He's very highly thought of.' Bessent has been at the forefront of negotiations on a US-China trade deal, arguably the most important of the pacts the president is seeking to forge as part of his effort to reshape the global trade landscape. 'Scott Bessent proved he could implement President Trump's agenda during an incredibly turbulent first six months,' said Steve Bannon, former chief White House strategist and outside adviser to the president. 'He's not just the star of the cabinet, but a safe pair of hands for global capital markets.' The president, who first nominated Powell to the job in 2017, has regularly complained that the Fed chief has been too reluctant to cut borrowing costs. Trump pushed Powell to lower interest rates in a White House meeting last month. Powell and Fed officials have held interest rates steady in 2025, arguing a patient approach to policy is appropriate amid economic uncertainty caused by Trump's expanded and evolving use of tariffs. Fed policymakers have said they expect the announced tariffs to weigh on economic growth and boost inflation. Whoever the Senate confirms for the post will have to prove to the world that the Fed's independence from political meddling remains intact. Trump has said many times that Powell is making a mistake by not lowering rates, and has previously said that he should have a say on rate decisions, raising questions over whether markets would see the next pick as beholden to him. Bessent or Warsh 'would be given the benefit of the doubt from the financial community' that they would preserve the independence of the Fed's rate-setting authority, IIF's Adams said. Economist and Trump ally Arthur Laffer said Bessent 'is wonderful, but he already has a job. And his specialty is not monetary policy.' 'As I told the president, I think Kevin Warsh is just perfect for the job,' he said. Other candidates whose names have previously been floated for Fed chair include Kevin Hassett, the White House's National Economic Council director, Christopher Waller, a Fed governor, and former World Bank President David Malpass.

US, China trade talks continue into night
US, China trade talks continue into night

NHK

time7 hours ago

  • NHK

US, China trade talks continue into night

World leaders and markets have been closely watching the trade talks between the two largest global economies, which have been taking place in London. US and Chinese officials have been seeking to strike a deal, and it is believed that easing export restrictions is topping the agenda. The meeting stretched into the second day, and went into the night, on Tuesday. The US team is led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. The Chinese delegation is headed by Vice Premier He Lifeng and Commerce Minister Wang Wentao. The negotiators paused for dinner, and reconvened at about 8 p.m. local time. Lutnick spoke to reporters before resuming. He said the discussions were going "really well," but could spill into a third day. Lutnick said: "Everybody's got their head down working closely. I hope they end this evening, but if they need to be, we'll be here tomorrow." Bessent later left the meeting to attend congressional testimony in Washington DC. He said the talks had been "productive," and were "ongoing." In May, the two sides agreed to pause some tariffs for 90 days to allow more time for negotiations. But since then, Washington has accused Beijing of delaying exports of rare earth metals, and has urged China to end the restrictions. It is believed that China has called on the US to scrap its curbs on semiconductor-related exports.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into the world of global news and events? Download our app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store