China has world's fastest rise in dementia with up to 115 million cases forecast by 2050
China has the world's fastest growing number of cases of dementia with the number of diagnosed cases increasing threefold over the past three decades, a new study has warned.
In 1990 the country had about 4 million patients with dementia, a number that rose to 17 million by 2021 and is projected to reach 115 million by 2050, according to the research published in PLOS One earlier this month.
The study did not highlight a specific reason for this increase, but the country is already grappling with a range of challenges caused by its rapidly ageing population and this trend threatens to compound the problem.
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'Alzheimer's and other dementias (ADD) are one of the diseases with the heaviest global disease burden. The disease burden of ADD in China and globally has increased year by year from 1990 to 2021,' said co-authors Siyu Liu and Geng Daoying, from Fudan University.
Geng's research team used data from the Global Burden of Disease database – a free resource backed by international bodies such as the World Health Organization – to collect and analyse the incidence and potential risk factors of dementia in individuals aged 40 and over from 204 countries and regions.
They found that the incidence, prevalence and mortality rates of dementia cases had doubled globally between 1990 and 2021, but over the same period the number of cases rose threefold in China.
When adjusted for population growth, the changes in the incidence of dementia are more pronounced. The average annual increase in the incidence of various types of dementia in China was 0.68 per cent, while globally it was only 0.06 per cent.
At present, there was no single identifiable cause that could account for the significant difference between China and the global average, they said.
However, the researchers identified the most likely risk factors for dementia as diabetes, obesity and smoking. The first two are a growing public health problem in China while around 48 per cent of men in the country are smokers – one of the world's highest rates – although the rate for women is much lower at 2 per cent.
Although China's population is rapidly ageing, this is not yet thought to be a significant factor in the rise in dementia cases.
The article said that the number of cases was highest in the 80-84 age bracket, especially among women – still a relatively small sector of the Chinese population. The risk from dementia then decreases among older groups.
This study also employed statistical models to predict trends over the next 15 years, with the results indicating that unless more effective intervention measures are implemented, the incidence of dementia will continue to rise, particularly in China.
At present rates, by 2050 152 million people worldwide will be affected by dementia, with more than two-thirds of these cases originating from China.
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