UAW claims US automakers can build millions more vehicles — experts disagree

USA Today

06-05-2025

UAW claims US automakers can build millions more vehicles — experts disagree
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UAW president Shawn Fain supports Trump's auto tariffs
The president of the United Auto Workers union is praising President Trump's tariffs on foreign-made vehicles, but says it can't stop there.
Straight Arrow News
The UAW says underutilization of auto plants is no accident and is calling on automakers to build more vehicles in the United States.
Automation is one reason for today's auto manufacturing employment numbers, one expert notes.
The UAW wants more vehicles to be built in the United States, and the union says the country's underutilized auto plants offer tremendous potential to boost employment numbers.
Reaching full existing capacity 'could create up to 90,000 new manufacturing jobs, not to mention 630,000 more in the rest of the U.S. economy,' according to the union.
The union assertions coincide with UAW President Shawn Fain's embrace of President Donald Trump's auto tariffs, although tariffs aren't cited in the union's white paper, 'Unlocking the Potential of U.S. Auto Manufacturing Capacity,' issued in April. The report, which got a mixed reaction from several industry watchers, also doesn't appear to reference auto parts manufacturing, a major piece of the auto sector.
The paper says 16 Ford Motor Co., General Motors, Stellantis and Volkswagen plants, including what was once GM Lordstown in Ohio, have capacity to spare, and it argues automakers have the infrastructure to produce millions more vehicles.
"In 2024, the U.S. auto industry had the capacity to build more than 14.7 million vehicles. However, only 10.2 million vehicles were produced, leaving 4.5 million units of unused capacity," according to the white paper.
The report calls out this underutilization as not accidental but rather 'the result of a deliberate strategy that puts offshoring, stock buybacks and short-term profits ahead of investment in union jobs, strong communities and long-term stability.'
In case you missed it: UAW members could see $3,780 profit-sharing checks, a big drop from 2024
The message is straightforward, urging the industry to 'step up' as it did during World War II's 'Arsenal of Democracy' and during the COVID-19 pandemic with the production of medical equipment. The UAW even planned rallies in Trenton and Warren, on May 5 and 6, respectively, to call on Stellantis, owner of Jeep, Ram, Chrysler, Dodge and Fiat, to 'fully utilize the excess capacity at its American plants.'
Fain, in a news release, said 'we don't need to break ground on a single new plant to rapidly grow auto manufacturing capacity — it's already right in front of us, in the plants we've built, the skills of our members and the communities that depend on these jobs. Instead of offshoring jobs to low-wage, high-exploitation countries, auto companies must invest here at home and rebuild the middle class with union labor.'
The Free Press asked several auto industry watchers to weigh in on the union's white paper.
Harley Shaiken, labor expert and professor emeritus at the University of California, Berkeley:
'The UAW paper makes an important point that 'The American auto industry has a proud legacy of rising to national challenges.' …
"I would add to that 'The Treaty of Detroit' that Walter Reuther and GM signed after World War II laid the basis for another critical achievement to come out of Detroit a vast expansion of the middle class, perhaps the most important model that was produced.
"That said, the paper is incomplete in the present form. It doesn't mention what kind of vehicles that will be produced: ICE (gas-powered) or EVs (electric vehicles). Last year about half of all production in China was EV or hybrid. We are managing to damage the environment further at a critical moment and fall behind competitively both at the same time.
"As a result of not mentioning EVs, the paper just talks about unused production 'space.' Billions of new tooling will be required and a transition could take two to five years. It's not as simple as ripping up machines and moving them north or south. And what about USMCA? The (United States-Mexico-Canada trade) agreement will be up for review in 2026 and much criticism is appropriate, but simply dumping it rather than extensively revising it could create havoc in Mexico and Canada, two of our closest allies.
"The unprecedented turmoil in the administration's tariff policies gives 'chaos' a bad name. What is introduced at 9 a.m. on any given day could be dumped or significantly revised at noon. There is clearly little manufacturing expertise in the administration and it's damaging to the companies and to UAW workers. 'Solidarity forever' should not simply stop at the border to have successful economies that benefit workers across North America."
Marick Masters, labor expert and professor emeritus at Wayne State University:
"I have read the paper, and it presents data to bolster the UAW's argument that there is much unfilled capacity in the U.S. auto vehicle manufacturing sector (which I read to be auto assembly per se) that could be employed to offset the tariffs on vehicles, which is the intended effect of Trump's 25% general tariff on auto vehicles. I do not have any basis for disputing their calculations on untapped capacity.
"Data on unused capacity from government sources show potential for growth in capacity utilization. They are using a straightforward calculation from Federal Reserve data on the expected employment gains if this were done by the Big Three, plus.
"But that does not mean there is demand for the products that existing facilities are set up to assemble. The production footprint and supply chains in (North America) are intricately linked connecting parts and assembly for certain brands of vehicles. In addition, the companies are in a state of transition from ICE to EV, which means that some of their U.S. capacity may not be suited for use under this transition.
"There is lot more that needs to be done to reindustrialize the U.S., which is arguably a worthy objective. Several major things come to mind immediately. Perhaps the most important would be to reduce the regulatory burden on manufacturing, increase energy capacity and reduce costs in this area, and reduce the tax burden on businesses, including general tax rates and expensing of depreciation and capital investments.
Auto tariff shake-up: Economists estimate new tariff costs to range between $2,000 to $12,000 per vehicle
"I think a large part of the Trump policy regarding auto tariffs is aimed directly at China, the world's leading automaker and EV producer. It subsidizes auto production, does not have the same regulatory burdens as operating in the U.S., and substantially lower labor costs than the U.S."
Sam Fiorani, vice president of global vehicle forecasting at AutoForecast Solutions
"Comparing capacity of plants making ICE vehicles with the upgraded plants making EVs is not an apples-to-apples comparison. Many of these plants, such as Orion, Factory Zero and Spring Hill are attempting to ramp up for an electric future. To make EVs most efficiently, the assembly lines cannot easily switch between traditional cars and trucks and modern EVs. Failing to express this reduces the importance of comparing factory output 10 years apart.
"Just because the capacity is there doesn't mean (it) could be filled. Unless UAW workers were willing to take a pay cut or increase the automation in these factories, U.S. buyers will not have the choice of entry-level models that are currently imported.
"Much of the current level of employment in the industry is due to the increased automation, a point that the UAW doesn't want to acknowledge. It takes fewer people to make a vehicle today. Increased automation could open plants to more production, especially of the lower-priced models the market needs, but that would be counter to the UAW's drive for more members.
"Ignoring the benefits of the USMCA reduces the competitive nature of the U.S. by closing doors for exports and raising the prices of vehicles and components for American buyers."
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