logo
How realistic is Nigel Farage's promise to cut crime in half?

How realistic is Nigel Farage's promise to cut crime in half?

Independent20 hours ago
N igel Farage claims that he has a plan to 'cut crime in half, take back control of our streets, [and] take back control of our courts and prisons '. The Reform leader says that 'we are facing nothing short of societal collapse', wants to build emergency 'Nightingale prisons ' on Ministry of Defence land, and has semi-promised to send convicted murderer Ian Huntley to El Salvador (admittedly a bit of a vote winner). It's an ambitious package, but there are questions about its viability...
Is Britain facing societal collapse?
No. If it was, you wouldn't get back alive from the pub or be able to get petrol or bread.
Is crime up?
On some measures and in some places, against certain given periods of time, it is up; on other measures, it's down.
The variations in the way crime is measured are one issue – it's risky to go by the number of crimes recorded by the police, because people will sometimes not bother to report them, especially the less serious matters, so statisticians treat these figures with caution.
The other way of measuring crime rates, which should also be adjusted for changes in population, is by conducting surveys among the public – but not everything is included. Somewhat confusingly, Farage seems to think that the survey data is unreliable because people have given up telling the police about, for example, thefts that might affect their insurance. That doesn't make sense.
Types of crime also necessarily change over time; there are very few thefts of car radios or bank blags these days, but there's massively more cybercrime and fraud. Even in London, described by Farage as 'lawless', not all crime is up; there's a long-term trend down in murder and rape, for example, and there are still plenty of tourists.
So fact-checking any politician on the subject of crime is virtually impossible. All such claims need to be treated with the utmost care.
What about the costings?
Farage presented a 'costings sheet' that purports to show that the whole massive package – recruiting 30,000 more police, opening new 'custody suites', restoring magistrates' court operations, building prisons, paying rent for offenders deported to prisons in El Salvador or Estonia, and the rest – would come to £17.4bn over a five-year parliament: a mere £3.48bn per annum.
The costings seem to be optimistic, based on some arbitrary assumptions such as always being able to cut costs to a minimum. They are not independently audited by, say, the Institute for Fiscal Studies – and if it were really all so cheap to do, the Tories and Labour would surely have taken the opportunity to transform the crime scene and turn Britain into a paradise long ago.
As for funding even the admitted £17.4bn, there are no specific named savings elsewhere, just some recycled claims about the (contested) cost of net zero and the supposed economic miracle wrought in Argentina by President Milei. Probably not enough to calm the bond markets under a Farage government.
Is the UK 'close to civil disobedience on a vast scale'?
So Farage claims. His critics say that his 'I predict a riot' remarks tend to have a self-fulfilling quality to them, as seen in the 'Farage riots' in Southport and elsewhere a year ago.
Essex Police, who are currently dealing with violent unrest in Epping – perpetrated by 'a few bad eggs', as Farage terms it – won't thank him for his comments.
And the anecdotes?
Uncheckable, just as Enoch Powell's were in the infamous 'rivers of blood' speech in 1968. We may never know whether, for example, a former army sergeant was denied a job as a police officer because the force was 'having trouble with its quotas' or for some other reason.
Reform's tactics are also reminiscent of the Trump playbook, demonstrating an obsession with incarceration and policing by fear. If Farage could build a British Alligator Alcatraz on a disused RAF base in Suffolk, he probably would. But using grass snakes, presumably.
Can Farage cut crime in half in five years?
It feels implausible. If he could, then presumably he could abolish crime altogether if he were given a decade in office. The 'zero tolerance' approach sounds fine, but if the pledge that every shoplifting offence, every whiff of a spliff, and every trackable mobile phone theft has to be investigated is taken literally – as he seems to intend – then even 30,000 more officers wouldn't be sufficient, and the expanded court and prison system would collapse.
Much the same goes for 'saturation' levels of policing deployed on stop-and-search exercises in high-knife-crime areas. Sending many more people to jail is also very costly, but, more to the point, the recent Gauke report explains why prison doesn't work and just makes everything worse. To get crime down under Reform UK, we'd need to turn the UK into a police state.
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

High-profile Reform defection causes stir, but what does it mean for 2026 Senedd Election?
High-profile Reform defection causes stir, but what does it mean for 2026 Senedd Election?

ITV News

time19 minutes ago

  • ITV News

High-profile Reform defection causes stir, but what does it mean for 2026 Senedd Election?

The defection of Laura Anne Jones has shocked and surprised even some of her closest colleagues. The significance of it has yet to be fully realised but certainly for now it has caused a sensation. In the short term, it gives Nigel Farage's Reform UK a Senedd member, another symbol that it's gaining support at all levels of government and a possible leader in Wales and even, if the polls are correct, a potential candidate for First Minister. But it brings its own problems. Laura Anne Jones is yet to be formally cleared by the Senedd's Standards Commissioner, Douglas Bain, after South Wales Police cleared her of expenses allegations. And her presence adds to those who say that Reform UK is mostly the home of disgruntled, former Conservative politicians, something that might put off those supporters of other political parties who, polls suggest, have been tempted by what they're hearing from Reform UK. For the Welsh Conservatives, it's a blow and one they weren't expecting. One Welsh Conservative source made the jibe, 'She'll have to turn up to cabinet more often now,' while another expressed disappointment that Ms Jones hadn't confided in even her closest colleagues, particularly those who'd offered help and support including 'emotional support' in recent years. Still, there's no doubt that her defection has shaken up a Welsh politics that is already being shaken up. Next year's Senedd election is one that is likely to bring huge change. Laura Anne Jones has just become a much bigger part of that change. Those other parties are contemplating what change means for them. There's the same mix of bafflement and frustration. When I bumped into Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth on the Royal Welsh Showground earlier, he highlighted the fact that he's a leader rooted in Wales but it's the visitor flown in from elsewhere who was getting the attention. Similarly former Welsh Conservative leader, Andrew RT Davies, has been at the Royal Welsh in a personal capacity for the last few days before taking up political tasks today. He rather wryly laughs at the rumours suggesting it would be he who'd defect, repeating his mantra that he was 'born blue.' A Welsh Labour spokesperson said, 'Today's defection is further proof that Reform are just the Tories in teal ties. Neither party cares about the people of Wales. 'Laura Anne Jones has seen the polls and, in a desperate attempt to keep her Senedd seat, is leaving the sinking Tory ship. This is someone who backed Liz Truss' reckless economics which crashed the economy, lost her front bench role over expenses claims and her own party said they were embarrassed by her racist slur in a WhatsApp group. 'She claims she's now part of the solution not the problem. Reform have no plan for Wales only Welsh Labour is listening and delivering for the people of Wales.' In his statement, Rhun ap Iorwerth MS said 'This is yet another desperate Tory defection who knows the writing is on the wall for their party's prospects next May. 'Our national parliament is not a plaything for those who want to set Wales on a road to ruin. Only a Plaid Cymru government will build a fair, ambitious and prosperous nation.'Welsh Liberal Democrat MP David Chadwick said, 'The Conservatives are clearly dead as a political force in Wales. But let's be clear: Reform has no answers for Wales, just more noise, division, and is seemingly now only a vehicle for failed Conservative politicians. 'The Welsh Liberal Democrats are standing up to Reform and defending the public services our communities rely on, offering the serious leadership Wales desperately needs. 'Our party's DNA is interwoven with Welsh history and identity. Next year, we will be fighting hard to build a fairer, more Liberal future for Wales. For voters who feel the Conservatives have abandoned them and are appalled by Reform, our door is open.'

Who is Nigel Farage's latest Reform recruit? From drink driving conviction to ‘chav shooting' post
Who is Nigel Farage's latest Reform recruit? From drink driving conviction to ‘chav shooting' post

The Independent

time19 minutes ago

  • The Independent

Who is Nigel Farage's latest Reform recruit? From drink driving conviction to ‘chav shooting' post

Welsh Senedd member Laura Anne Jones has defected from the Conservatives to Reform UK, becoming the party's highest-profile defection in Wales. Nigel Farage announced the news at the Royal Welsh Show, with Ms Jones – who was first elected in 2003 – saying she could longer justify Conservative policies on the doorstep. Standing alongside Mr Farage, she said: "I've just suddenly felt that the Conservative Party was unrecognisable to me. It wasn't the party that I joined over three decades ago." She said Reform, meanwhile, was "listening to the people of Great Britain". Ms Jones is the latest in a growing list of high-profile Tories to have defected to Reform, following former Conservative Party chairman Sir Jake Berry earlier this month, as well as Dame Andrea Jenkyns and former Wales secretary David Jones. Her defection means the Conservatives are down to 14 politicians in the Welsh Parliament, ahead of crunch elections next year. But who is Ms Jones? From waitressing to the Welsh Assembly Ms Jones was first elected to the then-National Assembly in 2003, becoming the joint-first Welsh Conservative female assembly member (AM). She had the backing of the Conservative Party despite a conviction for drink-driving in 2002, which saw her banned from driving for 12 months and fined £75. Jones said after the hearing: "I've never justified drink-driving and the decision is one I deserve. I've never done it on purpose." She had been earning £5 per hour as a waitress before she was elected. Ms Jones served one term, until 2007, before returning in 2020 after the death of Mohammad Asghar. She was re-elected in 2021, for South Wales East. She once used a racist slur in a WhatsApp chat Ms Jones hit the headlines last year when it emerged she had used a racist slur about Chinese people in a WhatsApp group chat. The Senedd member used the offensive term in an exchange about the Chinese-owned video app TikTok, writing: "No c****y spies for me!" She later apologised and issued a statement, saying the word was "unacceptable and I deeply regret using it". "I sincerely apologise for any offence this has caused," she added. She apologised for saying she wanted to shoot chavs In 2021, she was forced to apologise over old Facebook posts, in which she said she 'would like to do a spot of Chav shooting", and added it is "a shame that isn't legal." She also joked about shooting the then Labour leader, Ed Miliband, saying she would become the "perfect shot" if she had "ol' Red Ed to aim at." When she wrote the posts she was not an elected politician, although she had previously served as a member of the Senedd.

Teenager to run Reform-led county council with multimillion-pound budget
Teenager to run Reform-led county council with multimillion-pound budget

The Independent

time19 minutes ago

  • The Independent

Teenager to run Reform-led county council with multimillion-pound budget

Nigel Farage 's Reform UK party has put a teenager in charge of a major county council, overseeing hundreds of millions of pounds of public spending. George Finch, 19, took over temporarily after the previous council leader, also a member of Reform, resigned just weeks after being elected. Now he has been voted in as the leader of Warwickshire County Council, which has £1.5bn of assets and a budget of around £500m. Before the vote, Labour MP for Birmingham Edgbaston, Preet Gill, criticised his position, saying the people of Warwickshire 'frankly deserve better'. 'This is not work experience,' she told the BBC. 'This is not about learning on the job.' Reform is the largest party on the council, but did not have an outright majority. The BBC reported that on Tuesday that Conservative members abstained from the final round of voting, leading to a tie with the Liberal Democrat nominee, Jerry Roodhouse, which was ultimately broken by the council's chairman, Reform's Edward Harris. As he voted to install Finch as leader, Mr Harris said he was "disappointed and excited at the same time". "It [the tie] is not something I take lightly at all, and something I would rather not have happened," he added. Last month, Reform's Rob Howard said it was with 'much regret' that he was quitting as the council's leader, citing health challenges which he said prevented him from 'carrying out the role to the level and standard that I would wish'. His resignation came in the wake of the chaos that followed Reform's success at the local elections, when it took hundreds of seats across England. One newly elected councillor resigned from the party just days after being elected. As she left, Donna Edmunds also called for the ousted Reform MP Rupert Lowe to establish a challenger party on the right of the party and said Mr Farage 'must never be prime minister '. Another councillor, Wayne Titley, who was elected in Staffordshire, quit after just two weeks in the wake of criticism over a Facebook post about small boats arriving in Britain. And another Reform councillor's failure to declare that he worked for the council forced a by-election to be announced in Durham just a week after the election. While the chaotic scenes appeared to do little to dent Reform in the opinion polls, a leading pollster has now suggested that support for the party has 'topped out', and that the momentum that was leading it to soar in the polls has ground to a halt. Conservative peer Robert Hayward told The Independent that the results of recent council by-elections, which Reform lost while defending seats, coupled with a small fall in the party's national polling figures, suggest that the march of Mr Farage to Downing Street at the next general election could be facing a setback.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store