Discontinuing AIDS funding could trigger 4 million deaths by 2029, says new report: What are implications for India?

Indian Express

11-07-2025

A new UNAIDS report has cautioned that a permanent discontinuation of support from the United States President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) for HIV treatment and prevention could lead to more than four million additional AIDS-related deaths and six million additional new HIV infections by 2029.
According to the UNAIDS report, titled '2025 Global AIDS Update – AIDS, Crisis and the Power to Transform,' a historic funding crisis is threatening to unravel decades of progress. It pointed out how communities and governments had brought down the numbers of new HIV infections by 40 per cent and of AIDS-related deaths by 56 per cent since 2010. It also noted how huge gaps in HIV prevention had remained, with 1.3 million new infections in 2024—almost unchanged from the year before.
The sudden withdrawal of the single, biggest contributor to the global HIV response disrupted treatment and prevention programmes around the world in early 2025. International assistance accounts for 80 per cent of prevention programmes in low- and middle-income countries.
UNAIDS modelling shows that if the funding permanently disappears, there could be an additional six million HIV infections and an additional four million AIDS-related deaths by 2029. At the same time, the number of countries criminalising the populations most at risk of HIV has risen for the first time since UNAIDS began reporting data. Worldwide 9.2 million people living with HIV did not access life-saving treatment services last year. Among those were 6,20,000 children aged 0—14 years. This resulted in 75,000 AIDS-related deaths among children in 2024.
As per the new report, 25.6 lakh people were living with HIV in India in 2024. A total of 64,000 new infections were identified last year in the country and around 32,000 AIDS-related deaths were recorded. India's HIV prevalence peaked in 2000, showing a continuous decline for the past two decades with 0.55 per cent in 2000, to 0.32 per cent in 2010, 0.21 per cent in 2021 and 0.2 per cent in 2023.
However experts are concerned about the resurgence of HIV given the rise in new infections, especially in young people. 'This is similar to the rising trend in Sexually Transmitted Infections (STIs), Human Papillomavirus-HPV, Hepatitis B and syphilis,' said Dr I S Gilada, president emeritus, AIDS Society of India. That's why he is advocating increasing tests and screening to minimise new infections.
UNAIDS Executive Director Winnie Byanyima said the funding gap was 'a ticking time bomb.' 'We have seen services vanish overnight. Health workers have been sent home. And people — especially children and key populations — are being pushed out of care,' Byanyima added.
At a virtual press conference, Dr Beatriz Grinsztejn, IAS President told reporters, 'On the one hand, we are witnessing extraordinary scientific breakthroughs that could transform prevention and treatment and even bring us closer to a cure. On the other hand, these very advances are under threat from massive funding cuts that risk stalling clinical trials, slowing our progress, Now, more than ever, it is important for the world to hear directly from HIV researchers, scientists and affected communities.'
As of December 2024, seven countries — Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, Namibia, Rwanda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe—had achieved the 95-95-95 targets: 95 per cent of people living with HIV know their status, 95 per cent of those are on treatment, and 95 per cent of those on treatment are virally suppressed.
The report also highlights the emergence of unprecedented, highly effective new prevention tools like long-acting injectable PrEP, including Lenacapavir, which has shown near-complete efficacy in clinical trials—though affordability and access remain key challenges.
Anuradha Mascarenhas is a journalist with The Indian Express and is based in Pune. A senior editor, Anuradha writes on health, research developments in the field of science and environment and takes keen interest in covering women's issues. With a career spanning over 25 years, Anuradha has also led teams and often coordinated the edition.
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