Flood predictions could worsen when Trump's cuts take hold
The next generation of Landsat satellites is a key example. For about 50 years, the satellites have been an essential tool for monitoring and mapping floods. Their data is important 'for assessing risk, mapping the extent of damage, and planning post-disaster recovery,' according to NASA.
Trump is working to eliminate its funding.
A few weeks ago, Trump administration officials archived the Landsat account on X and deleted information related to the planning for Landsat Next, the tenth version of the satellite, from its webpage.
Weather forecasts gradually improve as scientists add more data. But they'll likely plateau — or even degrade — as NOAA's research and observation functions vanish, many scientists warn.
OAR's research 'has been amazing at developing computer models to help in the forecasting of these types of events,' said John Sokich, NWS's former director of congressional affairs, referring to the Texas floods. But if the office isn't reinstated by Congress for 2026, he said, 'that's going to stop.'
Some of the agency's most valuable models for flood prediction might be in jeopardy sooner rather than later.
The government's accurate forecasts of the deadly floods were made possible by a suite of high-resolution NOAA weather models designed to predict thunderstorms, Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA, said in a live YouTube talk Monday.
Having multiple models in the system helps scientists evaluate a range of possible outcomes when severe weather is on the horizon. NOAA tried to consolidate the collection of models into a single forecasting system a few years ago. But meteorologists expressed concern that it might not perform as well, and the change was delayed.
Trump plans to revive the plan.
'There's benefit in having multiple models,' Swain said. 'How expensive is it really to maintain that, as opposed to the cost of them missing a catastrophic flood?'
'A disconnect'
Meanwhile, staffing cuts at NWS offices across the country are likely to take a toll over time, experts say.
NWS offices were adequately staffed during the Texas floods, in part because agency officials called 'all hands on deck' to deal with the disaster, according to Fahy. But the offices still have vacancies in key roles, including a permanent meteorologist-in-charge in San Angelo and a warning coordination meteorologist in San Antonio.
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