Barrick Mining Eclipses 50-Day SMA: What Should Investors Do Now?

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2 days ago

Barrick Mining Corporation's B stock broke out above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) last Friday, flashing a bullish signal. The B stock has gained roughly 6% in a week. This comes on an uptick in gold prices due to heightened trade and geopolitical tensions, triggering safe-haven demand. The Trump administration's plan to double steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% has amped up trade tensions. Further, escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions have led to heightened geopolitical risks. The B stock is also currently trading above its 200-day SMA, suggesting a long-term uptrend. The 50-day SMA is reading higher than the 200-day SMA since the golden crossover on April 9, 2025, indicating a bullish trend.
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Barrick's shares have gained 20.3% over the past year, underperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's 52.6% increase while outperforming the S&P 500's rise of 10.8%. Among its gold mining peers, Newmont Corporation NEM, Kinross Gold Corporation KGC and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM have racked up gains of 34.6%, 97% and 85.3%, respectively, over the same period. Newmont's gains are partly aided by the strong production performance of its managed Tier 1 portfolio. Kinross Gold's impressive performance has been driven by its strong operational execution, advancement of growth strategy and consistent strong performance of Tasiast and Paracatu, its two biggest assets. Agnico Eagle's shares have performed remarkably on the bourses, thanks to its forecast-topping earnings performance, higher realized prices and strong production.
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Let's take a look at Barrick's fundamentals to better analyze how to play the stock.
Barrick is well-placed to benefit from the progress in key growth projects that should significantly contribute to its production. Its major gold and copper growth projects, including Goldrush, the Pueblo Viejo plant expansion and mine life extension, Fourmile, Lumwana Super Pit and Reko Diq, are being executed. These projects are advancing on schedule and within budget, laying the groundwork for the next generation of profitable production. The Goldrush mine is ramping up to the targeted 400,000 ounces of production per annum by 2028. Bordering Goldrush is the 100% Barrick-owned Fourmile, which is yielding grades double those of Goldrush and is anticipated to become another Tier One mine. The project has progressed to a prefeasibility study on the back of a successful drilling program. The Reko Diq copper-gold project in Pakistan is designed to produce 460,000 tons of copper and 520,000 ounces of gold annually in its second development phase. The first production is expected by the end of 2028.In October 2024, Barrick announced the commencement of the development of a Super Pit at its Lumwana copper mine in Zambia. The Super Pit Expansion entails doubling the present process circuit's throughput and substantially boosting mining volumes. Upon completion, the $2 billion project has the potential to transform Lumwana into a long-term, high-yielding, top-25 copper producer and Tier One copper mine. The expansion is expected to deliver 240,000 tons of copper production annually over the life of the mine.
Gold prices have rallied roughly 28% this year, courtesy of the aggressive trade policies, including sweeping new import tariffs announced by President Donald Trump, intensified global trade tensions and heightened investor anxiety. Also, central banks worldwide have been accumulating gold reserves, led by risks arising from Trump's policies. Prices of the yellow metal catapulted to a record high of $3,500 per ounce on April 22 amid President Trump's criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and call for an immediate reduction in interest rates. Increased purchases by central banks, hopes of interest rate cuts, and geopolitical tensions are expected to support gold prices. Despite the pullback from the April high due to the U.S.-China trade negotiations, gold prices remain above the $3,300 per ounce level. Higher gold prices should translate into strong profit margins and free cash flow generation for Barrick.
Barrick has a solid liquidity position and generates healthy cash flows, positioning it well to take advantage of attractive development, exploration and acquisition opportunities, drive shareholder value and reduce debt. At the end of first-quarter 2025, Barrick's cash and cash equivalents were around $4.1 billion. It generated strong operating cash flows of roughly $1.2 billion in the quarter, up 59% year over year. Free cash flow surged to around $375 million in the first quarter from $32 million in the prior-year quarter. Barrick returned $1.2 billion to its shareholders in 2024 through dividends and repurchases. Barrick's board, in February 2025, authorized a new program for the repurchase of up to $1 billion of its outstanding common shares. It repurchased shares worth $143 million under this program during the first quarter. Barrick offers a healthy dividend yield of 2% at the current stock price. Its payout ratio is 28% (a ratio below 60% is a good indicator that the dividend will be sustainable), with a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of roughly 5.1%.
Barrick is challenged by higher costs, which may eat into its margins. Its cash costs per ounce of gold and all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) — the most important cost metric of miners — increased around 16% and 20% year over year, respectively, in the first quarter. AISC increased due to higher total cash costs per ounce and higher minesite sustaining capital expenditures. For 2025, the company projects total cash costs per ounce of $1,050-$1,130 and AISC in the range of $1,460-$1,560 per ounce. These projections suggest a year-over-year increase at the midpoint of the respective ranges. Increased mine-site sustaining capital spending and higher labor costs may lead to higher costs.
The company provided a tepid forecast for 2025, with attributable gold production expected in the range of 3.15-3.5 million ounces, excluding production from Loulo-Gounkoto, which is temporarily suspended. While a potential restart of the mine would provide an upside, this projection suggests a year-over-year decline from 3.91 million ounces in 2024. Higher production from Pueblo Viejo, Turquoise Ridge, Porgera and Kibali, along with stable performance across Carlin and Cortez, is projected to be offset by reduced production across Veladero and Phoenix. Lower production is expected to weigh on the company's performance in 2025. Barrick's total gold production fell roughly 19% year over year to 758,000 ounces in the first quarter.
Earnings estimates for Barrick have been revised upward over the past 60 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 has been revised higher over the same time frame. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)
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B stock is currently trading at a forward price/earnings of 10.67X, a roughly 23.6% discount to the industry's average of 13.97X. It also has a Value Score of A. Barrick is also trading at a discount to Newmont, Agnico Eagle and Kinross Gold.
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Barrick's actions to boost production, robust financial health, rising earnings estimates, attractive valuation and a safe dividend yield paint a promising picture. Higher gold prices should also boost its profitability and drive cash flow generation. The stock trading above its 50-day SMA also suggests bullish momentum. However, its high costs and downbeat production outlook warrant caution. Therefore, retaining this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock will be prudent for investors who already own it. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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