Preparing for the next round

Express Tribune

7 days ago

Listen to article
Three things stand out from the four-day war: one, it began on a conventional note but quickly progressed to what is increasingly likely to constitute warfare in the modern age where perceptually a full conventional war is replaced with something more digestible, even if equally devastative; second, elements constituting modern warfare, missiles, Kamikaze Drones, loitering munitions were incrementally added to the menu to avoid the attribution of a full-scale war while still retaining an offensive intent – both sides mimicked each other in a mirror image and in reflex; third, there was a noise of multi-domain application as a part of conventional kinetic operations – these were impactful in a short war – and as a stand-alone resort as weapons of economic degradation to exhibit their potential for long-term pain.
There is another telling observation that is escaping attention; these were gentlemanly applications in sequence rather than as a combined force 'parallel' application in one solid punch meant to knock the opponent out. And while the ceasefire is a temporary pause, and not cessation of hostilities, Indians cannot stop overemphasising the point – one must be careful in enunciating what may help evil get stronger.
In the same vein, the plethora of experts that have emerged in the last two weeks neither do good to themselves nor to the country at large by pontificating on half-baked knowledge of modern warfare. It will help to cease such 'expert' haberdash.
Drones have a specific but limited role. A lot is made of their intelligence function and foot-printing the electro-magnetic spectrum and fixing locations but as warriors on both sides know there are enough resources to do so in peace time and war through what is now known parallel domains and satellite monitoring.
Drones do however instill a psychological irritation of an impending disaster especially when these are mixed with explosive payloads – the type extensively used in the Azerbaijan-Armenia war where from multiple faulty lessons were derived. The sheen and the surprise are both long-lost. They however do have a function with current capabilities in unique, permissive employment against forces which are irregular and dispersed in inaccessible regions.
As Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAV) they may in the future have a touted role of wingman to a manned fighter but that is highly uncertain and a long way out. In the four-day war, drones were used as gap-fillers in long pauses as warring sides pined for an intervention to help climb out of the morass.
Missile warfare that eventually spurred war in the wrong direction has however left a lot to ponder. For all these years since the two sides went nuclear missiles were a huge no-no for their inherent risk of escalation and erroneous assumption of the possible payload. During the Cold War, missiles on either side were kept on the ready in silos as weapons of first choice if a nuclear attack 'seemed' imminent. That brought about the concept of 'Star Wars' in the Reagan era which subsequently was shelved as the Cold War petered out. But then came the era of Rockets and Missiles, and Domes meant to protect from them.
The war in the Middle East turned them into a weapon of choice because the weaker side did not possess or could not match the capacity of conventional warfare with the adversary. These were thus anger weapons meant to disrupt and deter than destroy. It helped that those firing were a non-nuclear entity and hence the risk involved in using these weapons between nuclear nations was non-existent. Similarly, Iran too was a relatively weaker force vis a vis Israel when it had to respond with missiles against Israel's unprovoked attacks.
South Asia has learnt a wrong lesson from the recent spread of missile warfare without realising its determining construct. We need to go back to the playbook of the Cold War era if we wish to remain hostile as two nuclear nations. How we escaped mutually assured destruction in the four-day war is a miracle. Proliferation of missiles, nuclear or others, enjoins another imperative – defence against them.
This is where nations can go broke, even the US and Russia. They were smart, instead beginning a process of Arms Limitations and over time engaging the other in trade ties. Currently these may be in a hiccup but the interdependent nature of the world which largely now is woven into a labyrinth of supply chains makes it incumbent for adversaries to learn to coexist. Both the US and Russia have thus avoided falling into the trap of Domes for protection. Only lately Trump has floated his grand scheme of a Gold Dome, whatever that means.
Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Israel have learnt to live under the threat of an odd missile or rocket or a UAV attack with limited and confined effect. That though doesn't take away the need for a detailed, integrated, networked and centrally controlled air defence system using assets both in the air and on the ground woven into a synchronous automation – a 'system of systems' for defence against all threats using air as the medium of attack. Defence, just as offence, is part of warfare and cannot be neglected. Offence incurs a cost on the enemy, defence saves from enemy's offence and its cost.
A huge amount of jargon is bandied about in modern warfare which has roots in systems integration enabled by revolution in instant and coded communication of data. This is not new. What began in the 1980s and refined in the early 2000s has been enabled over the decades with advances in IT and data fusion.
Huge steps in capability induction and datalinks have brought about a revolution in force application. Doctrine is in essence the definition of mindset that details employment preferences. This is followed by acquisition plans to fill gaps and training cycles to perfect doctrinal employment till these turn into set-piece events. That is the epitome of perfection. It all must, though, begin with a thought and a single-minded focus to make it happen. It explains how excellence is achieved.
Multi-domain, parallel operations will exact another requirement and structure. As AI refines and becomes widely integrated it will become an essential partner to a warfighting commander. That is the next level of man and machine fusion into a single decision-making entity.
As multiple domains become active simultaneously a human mind will be saturated to the point of paralysis. That is when the machine will come handy. It shall be a struggle to keep out some fields of play from machine's domain. Where though a line will be drawn to keep Armageddon out will be the next big test for humanity. Real multi-domain will exact real painstaking price off human ingenuity. The race is on either to go under or remain collaboratively afloat in the manner of the USA and Russia.