Analysis: Why Elon Musk's third party is likely to fail
That's the only conclusion you can draw from the data about Elon Musk and his new 'America Party.'
Take a look at CNN's new poll on Musk and his political aspirations. Just 25% of all adults and 22% of voters favor a Musk-run third party to compete against Democrats and Republicans.
The vast majority of both adults (74%) and voters (77%) oppose such an endeavor.
The CNN poll isn't alone on the subject. Quinnipiac University also polled about Musk's party this week, and the results were just as devastating. Only 17% of voters would consider joining Musk and his venture to compete with the GOP and Democrats.
More than three-quarters (77%) gave a thumbs-down.
It really shouldn't be surprising that Americans are against a party named after them.
History hasn't been too kind to third parties, independents or write-ins that seek to shake up the political scene. George Washington has been the only independent to ever win a presidential election. Washington did so before political parties were a real thing in this country.
And last I checked, Musk did not lead the Continental Army across the Delaware as the top general during our country's revolution. (He is also not eligible to run for president given that he was born in South Africa.)
Alabama's George Wallace was the last third-party candidate to win a state in a presidential election. That was so long ago (1968) that we hadn't yet landed on the moon.
Musk, smartly, seems to be more interested in taking on Democrats and Republicans in congressional races than trying to run a presidential candidate.
The track record there for third parties, independents or write-ins isn't too hot to trot, either. By my count, there have been a bit more than 13,000 congressional elections since 1970. These non-major party candidates have won about 24 of them.
That's about 0.2% for those counting at home.
Sens. Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont account for more than half those winners.
Such daunting math might make you wonder why anyone would spend any time pounding the keyboard to discuss Musk's potential third party.
The answer is money. Many third parties fail because they can't get their message out.
Musk's party wouldn't have that problem given that he is one of the richest men in the world. But money isn't enough.
Businessman Ross Perot had a lot of money that helped get him to get nearly 20% of the popular vote in the 1992 presidential election. Perot didn't win a state as an independent. His showing did, however, lead him to start a third party.
He started out in a much better place politically than Musk. Even so, his Reform Party saw minimal success. It reached its apex when Jesse Ventura won on its line in the 1998 Minnesota gubernatorial election.
Today, the Reform Party is remembered by few.
Back in 1993, 50% of Americans supported a Perot-formed third party in CNN polling. Fewer (37%) opposed. That's quite different from the three-quarters who are against Musk's third party now. And Perot, in 1993, actually sported net positive favorable ratings in poll after poll.
The potentially good news for Musk is that the ground is arguably as fertile for a third party now as almost any point in recent history.
Our CNN poll showed that 63% favored one to take on the Democrats and Republicans.
Musk is just the wrong guy to lead such a journey. He is, as I said at the top, one of the most unpopular political figures in the country. CNN's poll puts his favorable rating at a mere 23%. More than double that (60%) view him unfavorably.
That gives Musk a net favorable rating of -37 percentage points. Oof.
Other polls aren't nearly as unkind to the electric car builder and rocket ship maker, but they all paint the picture of a man who is far from beloved.
The sad thing about this is that Musk was once quite popular. During the 2016 campaign, Musk's net favorable rating clocked in at +29 points in a Bloomberg survey.
He had the highest net favorable rating of any person polled. Now, he's routinely the least popular person in any given poll.
Musk's drop didn't occur overnight. It's been happening through the years and has accelerated as he entered the political arena. Musk's woes went into hyperdrive during his divorce from President Donald Trump.
All in all, the more Americans see of Musk in politics, the less they like him.
Musk's unpopularity makes the normally very difficult efforts to start a third party become herculean.
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