Why this analyst sees a major box office rebound this summer
Data from Comscore reports that moviegoers shelled out more than $329 million at the box office over Memorial Day weekend — the biggest ever for that holiday.
Comscore senior media analyst Paul Dergarabedian breaks down what fueled the surge and why a $4 billion summer box office may be within reach.
To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Asking for a Trend here.
Consumers spent over $329 million at the box office over the four-day Memorial Day weekend, an all-time high, with Disney's Lilo and Stitch taken in over $182 million. This comes after 2024, which had the worst four-day performance in nearly three decades. According to our next guest though, this year's rebound could kick off a summer movie season that could reach over $4 billion in total grosses. But will it be enough to keep studios and theaters in the green? Paul Degarabedian, comScore senior media analyst joins us now. Paul, it is good to see you as always. So the Memorial Day weekend box office, Paul, a record. First, let's start there. Why, Paul? What drove that?
Well, you know, we had a first quarter, Josh, that was down about 12% versus last year according to our comScore data. And part of that was March, which was down 46% versus March of '24. Then comes along a little movie called A Minecraft movie, and that blew the doors off and kept playing really strongly. And then sinners, as we all know, had one of the lowest second weekend drops ever. So both those films overperformed opening weekend, and then they've had legs, as we say in the business, long-term playability. And then the accountant two opened, and then Marvel's Thunderbolts to kick off the summer, and then final destination bloodlines. Every single one of those films has overperformed and had more importantly long-term playability. That gave the best possible tailwinds heading into Memorial weekend with Mission Stitch possible, whatever you want to call it, just really bringing so much attention to the movie theater. And that's why you see that massive $329 million 4-day domestic record-breaking weekend for Memorial Day. This is huge for theaters right now.
And did you see any of those movies yourself, Paul, over that Memorial Day weekend? Any recommendations?
I saw, yeah, Mission Impossible. I saw that in IMAX. And, you know, the premium formats are very important when you talk about IMAX, 4DX, Dolby Vision. You know, even though consumers are price sensitive, when it comes to certain movies, audiences really want that premium experience. And that's going to happen a lot more this summer if a movie like, if you take F1, for example, from Warner Brothers and Apple, that's a big one. Obviously, DC and Warner Brothers Superman, which is on the way. And then, of course, Fantastic Four down the line for Marvel. So I just think that is, it was the momentum thing going on, movies very well marketed, audiences are in the mood to go to the movie theater. This is after all the summer movie season, and it's really playing out well. And this ain't the end. This isn't a one hit wonder of hits in terms of, I should say in terms of the box office. We have a lot more to come. Karate Kid legends opens this weekend. That's from Sony Pictures and on and on it goes. Ballerina is up next and a lot of kids movies, which PG movies have been at the forefront of the box office for the past year and a half at least.
And Paul, you say you're turned ahead to the summer. You say we're certainly looking at a $4 billion plus summer, potentially $4.2 billion plus. How, how come Paul, what gives you that, that optimism, that confidence?
Yeah, Josh, that's a great question because last summer we got to 3.7 billion, but remember last summer fell victim to not having a Marvel movie to kick off the summer. Memorial weekend, as you point out, was one of the lowest grossing ever. And it's because that year, last year, was impacted by the strikes, production schedule disruption, and then chaos to the release calendar. And that threw everything to disarray, and that summer of '24 didn't really get started until Bad Boys Rider Die in early June, and then really with Inside Out 2 in mid-June. This year's a completely different story. I defy anyone to find at least five movies that they aren't super anxious to see on that big screen in a movie theater. It's almost a champagne problem. There's almost too many films. Audiences have to figure out how are they going to budget for that. And theaters have to budget out screen space, real estate, for all these big, especially the premium formats. So it's a good, good situation, much better than last year, but a lot going on here for sure.
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Breaking Baz: ‘Bring Her Back' Star Billy Barratt Says He Performed Best In The Horror Pic After Being Locked Alone In A Room Without His Phone
EXCLUSIVE: Billy Barratt, star of Danny and Michael Philippou's grippingly intense, dark and twisted Bring Her Back, was able to get into the mood for horror by being locked alone in a room, he reveals. Brit actor Barratt, 17, who also plays Casper Morrow, one of the few humans able to communicate with the alien invaders in the Apple TV+ drama Invasion, tells Deadline: 'There were moments where Danny would basically lock me in a room by myself, and he goes, 'Just try and get in character.' He shut the door, I'm not allowed to leave. I ended up just sitting there with no phone, no nothing — which is great, by the way. I just sat there for ages, and then when I came back outside of that door, back into the scene … you just feel like you are there are in it.' 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Following the death of their father, they're fostered by Laura, a seemingly — at first glance, at least — kindly, grieving mother whose daughter has died, played by two-time Oscar nominee Sally Hawkins. 'It's more emotion than just jump scares and gory things,' Barratt says with a dramatic shiver. This isn't a spoiler, because it's in all the trailers, but Hawkins scares the living daylights out of those kids – and the audience. There's a third kid involved in the story called Oliver, played with macabre relish by Jonah Wren Phillips. I saw the A24 picture on a recent morning at a screening kindly set up by Sony at its HQ in Paddington, London, and it left me shaken for the rest of the day — and night. Hawkins fully immerses herself in her role. Barratt recalls chatting to her at the wrap party. 'She said to me, 'We should meet up in London because I haven't actually got to meet you as me yet properly.' And I was like, 'Oh, OK. Cool. Right. So you were really Laura in that!'' He makes clear that the actress wasn't 'terrifying' the whole time. 'It only clicked for me when she said that. And I was like, 'Oh, so you were fully immersed the whole time?'' It can be 'quite handy' to stay in character all day, he says, and go the full Daniel Day-Lewis. There were three weeks of pre-production in Adelaide, Australia, the Philippous' home state, which he says, 'actors at my level aren't usually involved in.' Ordinarily, 'you just sort of show up on the first day, they've done their pre-production, and then you just start. Here, everyone felt so involved. Me especially. It actually helped me and Sora to have that sort of brother-sister relationship, which is hard to get until you actually hang out with them. Those first three weeks of pre-production were fun for sure, because it felt like the whole thing was a great big icebreaker.' Barratt studied acting and music at Sylvia Young's drama school in London, and he was cast in several TV shows, films and one musical. That was with Kelsey Grammer in the musical Big Fish, which I happened to have caught. His breakthrough came when he was 12 in director Nick Holt and writer Sean Buckley's Responsible Child , the 2019 Kudos and BBC TV drama that won him the International Emmy for Best Actor, followed by two seasons of Invasion. He's already filmed a third season, possibly coming to screens later this year. There's a genuine brother-and-sister warmth between the Andy and Piper characters in Bring Her Back — and plenty of sibling bickering too. He's always holding her hand, and the relationship doesn't seem at all feigned. 'And also the fact that I'm not sure how much she could see,' Barratt tells me, because like Piper, Sora is partially blind, though she could see more than her character. 'Anywhere we'd go,' he gently adds, 'we'd end up just sort of linking arms. And so I explained to her what I could see, what was going on, and just sort of paint an image for her. Andy's whole thing is he wants to make the world look like a better place for his little sister.' Hawkins' Laura does a bunch of things that I can't spoil here, though as we discuss them, the word that Barratt and I kept repeating was 'weird.' I'd go so far to say, wonderfully weird. Maybe terrifyingly weird is more appropriate. And as Barratt points out, 'Piper cannot see what's going on.' It's a whole mind game and such great writing from Danny Philippou and Michael Hinzman, who wrote Talk to Me. Barrett didn't meet with any psychologists or social workers whilst preparing for the film, but he tells me that he was introduced to Miranda Harcourt, the distinguished dramaturg and acting coach who often works with the likes of Nicole Kidman. 'She helped me and Sora … and also just how to approach certain scenes and just gave options and different exercises to do before a scene to get you real wound up,' he explains. He says that the crew 'were also my therapy.' How so, I ask. 'Because anytime that it was like a sad scene or a really happy scene or whatever, they would match the vibe on set all day. And it was just so a 'We are one' sort of thing.'' For instance, if he had to do a really sad scene, 'everyone would be really quiet for the whole day.' Reviewing Barratt's performances from Responsible Child, through two seasons of Invasion and now Bring Her Back, there is a discernible deeper progression in his acting. I mean, he's growing up. He's not a little kid anymore; he's gained confidence in front of the camera as he's gotten older. It's not something that he's noticed himself, though he notes that there's 'definitely a feeling of being more comfortable on set' that first day when you don't know anyone. 'It's nerve-wracking, and all you can really think about is the scene, but then at the same time, are they going to like it? Am I doing the right thing? There's still time to pull me out of the movie. But that's just what goes through my mind, at least.' Reflecting on Invasion, he points out that he's been on the set with his castmates since he was 13, 'and I'm turning 18 next month.' Shaking his head, he adds, 'It's just been a mad trip, a mad drive, especially through Covid and everything.' There were stops and starts during the pandemic, though there was a period where they had to stop shooting 'for ages.' But when they resumed 'we'd all grown up by that point and all the growth spurts had happened.' The plus factor is that he made lifelong friends through his involvement with Invasion. He took Cassius, his younger brother, to the set while shooting the final episode of Season 2. 'He was acting a little bit before this and then stopped. And then when I took him to that set, he was so amazed by all the lights and the lasers. It was a mad thing to see. He was like, 'I want to start acting again.' There's video on YouTube of the 2020 International Emmy ceremony done remotely. Barratt's at home with his family, and when he's announced as the winner, he turns to Cassius, now 13, and says, 'Man, I love you,' rubs his brother's head affectionately and says, 'That'll be you next.' It's a telling moment. Also in Bring Her Back there are aforementioned moments with Wong, and in certain scenes in Invasion, there's a sort of inherent caring gene that he has that comes through the screen. The matter is not something he's, thought about or is aware of, obviously, but Barratt acknowledges there's something in what I'm suggesting. 'I think that's what freaks me out when I'm watching myself back. Is it too much like me or have I actually got the character down or have I just half-assed that? Because I'm seeing parts of me in there. But then I also think on the flip side of that, I think it's quite important to have a little bit of you in there because that's what makes it natural.' During the Bring Her Back shoot, he says that he saw a lot of his brother in Sora because they're a similar age 'and they have fights and that sort of thing.' He adds: 'It's just siblings, there's a real deep love in it. I definitely saw a lot of my brother in Sora's character.' We spent a long time chatting, and it's clear, at least to me, that Barratt's in it for the long haul. 'I'd love to be involved in every aspect of a film from the moment it started right up to when it comes out,' he says. 'I think there's moments that I miss because as an actor it's just not your job to be involved in those certain scenarios. And I wish I could be involved in that. And I look at some really big actors who will sit next to the director and have a say in what happens. And I don't know if that's because they're able to produce as well or whatever. 'I am not like, massive. You say to anyone: 'What's his name?' I dunno,' he shrugs. 'I'm definitely new. I'm definitely starting, even though I've been doing it for about 11 years now, almost. I'm a new actor, I guess.' Every actor arrives in some shape or from, I suggest. Leonardo DiCaprio didn't arrive fully formed, nor did Timothée Chalamet or Tom Cruise. Taking issue, Barratt argues that 'Leonardo DiCaprio did come fully formed. I love him. And I think every single film I've seen him in from when he was younger than me in these films like Basketball Diaries or What's Eating Gilbert Grape he's just incredible in all of it. I just think there's just some people that have just got it straight away, and I don't class myself with one of those people, I'm still learning, for sure. And I think that's what I mean when I say an 'actor at my level' — someone that doesn't understand a lot of it but really wants to. Wants to be involved in all of it.' We order French fries, a Coke for him and more piping-hot tea for me. Making Responsible Child, about a 12-year-old boy accused of helping to kill his abusive stepfather who was tried in court the same as an adult in England and Wales, opened his eyes to the power of film. After it came out, he realized 'how much of an impact' it had had, with changes made in how police and courts handle such cases. He remembers reading about it and thinking: 'Oh, shit! It's not just sitting down and watching something on Netflix. It can change people's lives.' Certainly, Responsible Child hold is one of those films that stay with you. There are a bunch of movies that have stayed with him too. Like David Fincher's Fight Club, Martin Scorsese's Shutter Island and Christopher Nolan's Inception. He's a big fan of Sofia Coppola's Lost in Translation as well. And Michael Curtiz's Casablanca! He likes Francis Coppola's The Godfather, and now — having watched the Paramount+ series The Offer, about producer Albert S. Ruddy's experience of making The Godfather — he wants to see the whole trilogy. He'd like to work with the Philippou brothers again and admires what he calls their 'genius' way of working. They'd work a full day in the studio and then home and be up until the early hours editing the footage of the day and 'be back at 7 in the morning.' They shot with the same crew and used the same studio they filmed Talk to Me in. It was once an insane asylum. The Babadook was shot there. Apparently, he regales, the studio's haunted on one particular floor. 'We went up to have a little look around,' he recalls, 'This one room was so scary, and there was a pile of dead bees. A lot of bees bang in the center of the film. And people had told stories of cleaners quitting and a security guard going up there and in his ear he could hear whispering. He left and never came back. I would never come back. That's terrifying,' he says, pausing to add, 'a great place to shoot a horror movie.' Season 3 of Invasion was shot in Canada, with Barratt's scenes being shot before and after working on Bring Her Back. 'My hair was really long, and then I went to shoot Invasion, they cut my hair really short. And then I went back out to Canada, and my hair was still short. So then they a wig. But the wig, it just didn't look like it did before. I don't blame anyone for that. I just think it just didn't fit me correctly. It just wasn't right. I've actually watched it back on the cameras, and it looked good. But me actually walking around, it just didn't work.' He's not allowed to give anything away about Season 3 of Invasion, but he does let slip that … Oh, no! I realize that it's way too much of a spoiler to impart. Whatever happens to his Casper Morrow in Invasion, Billy Barratt's in for a long and fruitful career. 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‘Lilo & Stitch': All The Box Office Records Broken
Disney's Lilo & Stitch has teed up this summer's box office to arguably become the best one since Covid with a projected $4.2 billion in the U.S. and Canada after breaking a slew of records over its opening Memorial Day weekend frame. The $100 million live-action feature take of the 2002 animated classic broke even thanks to its rich merchandise and ancillaries, with a breakeven point of $205 million worldwide per film finance analysts. More from Deadline 'Lilo & Stitch' Live Action Cast Guide: Who Plays Who? Live-Action 'Lilo & Stitch' Soundtrack: All The Songs You'll Hear 'Lilo & Stitch' Swings To Best Tuesday In May For PG Movie At $15M+; Disney Pic Crossing $200M Today - Box Office Let's take a look at all the box office records it has broken. Biggest 4-Day Memorial Day Weekend Box Office Ever, at $182.6M, unseating 2022's Top Gun: Maverick ($160.5M). Biggest Opening Ever For a Rideback Production, with a 3-day of $146M, besting It: Chapter One's $123.4M. Biggest Opening Ever for Director Dean Fleischer Camp. His previous opening was A24's Marcel the Shell With Shoes On at $159,000 from six theaters. Biggest 3-day Opening for a PG Movie In May, ahead of 2007's Shrek the Third ($121.6M). Biggest Tuesday In May for a PG Movie at $15.2M, ahead of Disney's Aladdin ($12M) in 2019. Biggest 4-day Memorial Day Weekend at Domestic Box Office For All Films at $329.8M, per Comscore, unseating Memorial Day Weekend 2013 which minted $314.3M after Fast & Furious 6 led with a $117M opening. OTHER NOTABLE ACHIEVEMENTS Second Biggest 4-Day Holiday Opening, after Black Panther's $242.1M in its debut over the 2018 Presidents Day weekend. Second Biggest Opening YTD after Warner Bros/Legendary's A Minecraft Movie ($162.7M). Third Biggest Opening for a Disney Live-Action Feature Adaptation of a Classic Toon, behind 2019's The Lion King ($191.7M) and 2017's Beauty and the Beast ($174.7M). Fifth Biggest Monday of All-Time at $36.5M, after Black Panther ($40.15M, February 19, 2018), Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($40.10M, December 21, 2015), Spider-Man: No Way Home ($37.1M, December 20, 2021) and Avengers: Endgame ($36.8M, April 29, 2019). AMC and Odeon's Most Attended 5 Days YTD at 7 million, combined both stateside and abroad. AMC is reporting, but not providing numbers, that it was the chain's most-attended Memorial Day weekend in the U.S. since 2013. It was also the No. 1 exhibitor's third-best 5-day (Thursday-Monday) in more than decade when it came to overall revenue (admissions plus concessions). Regal Cinemas' Most Attended Memorial Day Weekend Ever with more than 3 million moviegoers at the nation's No. 2 chain. It also served 103 million buckets of popcorn. Highest Opening YTD for an MPA Movie at the International Box Office YTD at $158.7M. Highest Disney Live-Action Opening of All Time Across Latin America. Mexico was the No. 1 market with $27M, Brazil was third with $12.2M. NOTABLE ACHIEVEMENTS Third highest Disney Live-Action Worldwide Opening at $342M, behind The Lion King ($433M) and Beauty and the Beast ($357). Disney First Studio To Cross $2 Billion YTD, ahead of all other studios at the global box office. Best of Deadline 2025-26 Awards Season Calendar: Dates For Tonys, Emmys, Oscars & More Everything We Know About Netflix's 'The Thursday Murder Club' So Far 2025 TV Series Renewals: Photo Gallery
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‘Lilo & Stitch' Kicks Up $63M Second Weekend, ‘Mission Impossible 8' $27M+, ‘Karate Kid: Legends' At $21M
SUNDAY AM: Saturday was kind to most movies in the top 10 which saw lifts over Friday, in particularly Disney's Lilo & Stitch and Paramount's which were respectively up 51% and 56%. Lilo & Stitch is coming in at $63M for its second frame, while Mission Impossible 8 is $27.3M. Disney executives are skipping around the Burbank lot for with Lilo & Stitch it catapults the studio past the $1 billion mark at the domestic box office with a 30% market share. Disney is the first studio to pass that milestone YTD. Excluding 2020, Disney has grossed $1B+ domestically for 20 consecutive years since 2005, the only studio to accomplish this. More from Deadline 'Lilo & Stitch': All The Box Office Records Broken 'Karate Kid: Legends' Will Provide Kick To Summer Box Office But Won't KO 'Lilo & Stitch's $60M Second Weekend – Preview Breaking Baz: 'Bring Her Back' Star Billy Barratt Says He Performed Best In The Horror Pic After Being Locked Alone In A Room Without His Phone Total weekend for all titles is $151M, +130% from the same post Memorial Day frame a year ago. Sony is calling Karate Kid: Legends at $21M but others see it under $20M, like in the $19M range. Oh, no. I mean, if Sony called it at $20M and everyone is in the high $19M, that's not a big deal, but no one knows where $1M+ extra is coming from. Saturday was $7.3M, -5% from Friday/previews $7.7M. If you back out $2.3M previews, then Saturday was an up day for the Jackie Chan and Ralph Macchio team-up at +35%. Why wasn't there a big rush to this film? Why is it under its projections? It's the Cobra Kai streaming Netflix effect, dummy. With the Karate Kid audience conditioned to stay at home, what's the big reason for them to run out and watch another fight tournament onscreen? Yes, as we said before, being in the shadow of Lilo & Stitch crowd doesn't help given some audience overlap. Families are on a budget and they're going to put their money toward the title that kids are nagging them to see (tracking does take this into consideration with kids under 12). RelishMix noticed negative chatter, concentrated around the fear that the movie wouldn't live up to hype and the success of the previous installments. Comments included, 'I mean the story is same as every Karate Kid film,' and, 'I do not know how I feel about this. I'm half terrified.' Call it what you will — $19M-$20M. Note that while it's under expectations, the picture will be somewhat profitable. It's an okay piece of business at $45M net production cost, even though I'm sure Sony would have loved to see bigger numbers. I'm told that Karate Kid: Legends came on tracking at $35M and dropped to the mid $20Ms before this weekend. Oh, jeez. Let's not forget the great exits which should help the film hold. Karate Kid: Legends was originally dated for June 7, 2024, before the strikes pushed it to Dec. 13, 2024. When it came to business for this film, Sony had second thoughts and chose kids out of school for the summer over a crazy multiple over Christmas, thus moving Karate Kid: Legends back to a post-Memorial Day weekend slot. A24's — this is an excellent, original gross movie with great exits. Beyond the B+ CinemaScore, there's 80% audience on Rotten Tomatoes with a big hug from critics at 90% certified fresh. Just like A24's was trying to campaign for Toni Colette for Hereditary, there's an awards push to be done here for Sally Hawkins. Though the movie is at the top of its forecasted range with $7M, it's a bit surprising that the movie didn't overindex even more, and do a number beyond the Philippou's first movie, Talk to Me ($10.4M), or at least on par. Remember when it comes to these indie labels, it's a business of margins in regards to P&A spend to theatrical yield to profiting in the home windows. A 3x-4x multiple off a movie's opening (Midsommar, Heretic) is typically A24's theatrical goal on these genre movies, however, Talk to Me had a 4.6x (final domestic was $48.2M). That movie eased -39% in its second weekend. We'll see if Bring Her Back can bring more back. Bring Her Back played best in the East and West and even throughout the U.S./Canada. AMC Burbank was the pic's highest grossing location with just under $30k. Chart is updating with Sunday figures indicated with bold titles and including Saturday and Sunday number. & Stitch (Dis) 4,410 theaters, Fri $17M (-70%) 3-day $60M-$64M (-56% to -59%), Total $277M-$281M/Wk 2 2. Mission: Impossible – Final Reckoning (Par) 3,861 (+4) Fri $7.5M (-70%), 3-day $26.7M (-58%), Total $122M/Wk 2 3. Karate Kid: Legends (Sony) 3,809 theaters, Fri $7.5M, 3-day $21M-$23M/Wk 1 4. Final Destination: Bloodlines (NL) 3,134 (-389) Fri $3.1M (-43%), 3-day $11M (-43%), Total $111.9M/Wk 3 5. (A24) 2,449 theaters, Fri $3.1M Sat $2.2M Sun $1.67M 3-day $7.08M/Wk 1 6.) Sinners (WB) 2,138 (-494) theaters Fri $1.55M (-35%) 3-day $5.1M (-40%), Total $267M/Wk 7 7.) Thunderbolts (Dis) 2,520 (-660) theaters Fri $1.3M (-48%) 3-day $4.7M (-51%), Total $181.7M/Wk 5 8.) Friendship (A24) 1,293 (+238) theaters, Fri $780K (-56%), 3-day $2.5M (-44%), Total $12.3M/Wk 4 9.) (Angel) 1995 (-210) theaters, Fri $642K Sat $876,5K Sun $620K 3-day $2.14M (-60%), Total $10.75M/Wk 2 10.) J-Hope Tour: Hope on Stage (TRAF) 631 theaters Sat $789K Sun $150K, 2-day $939K/Wk 1 Busting into the top 10 is Trafalgar Releasing's live broadcast of the grand finale of j-hope's first solo world tour from Osaka Japan's Kyocera Dome. The concert was transmitted live to 2,700+ cinemas across 83 countries on Saturday. Select encores are taking place today around the globe (64% encoring in North America, 46% worldwide). Global projection (sans Japan) for the weekend stands at $4.1M. 11.) (AMZ) 820 (-1182) theaters, Fri $214K (-56%) Sat $331K Sun $231K 3-day $776K (-62%), Total $65M/Wk 6 Notables: The Phoenician Scheme (Foc) 6 theaters, Fri $270K Sat $160K Sun $140K 3-day $570K, PTA $95K, Wk 1As we said yesterday, it's the biggest per screen of the year to date. Updated on individual theaters through Saturday: NYC's Angelika $121K, AMC's Lincoln Square is $96K, LA's AMC Century City is $58K, LA's AMC the Grove $55K, AMC Burbank $53.4K and NYC's Alamo Brooklyn stands just under $44k. Movie is 77% certified fresh with critics on Rotten Tomatoes. No audience score yet. Asteroid City, Focus Features' previous Cannes Film Festival premiere and theatrical release with Wes Anderson, had a RT critic score of 76% certified fresh and audience score of 66%. SATURDAY AM: It's a solid weekend following the Memorial Day holiday with all titles driving around $144M worth of business, +117% from the post-holiday doldrums a year ago. Let's rejoice and take it. No, it's not the biggest for the post 4-day holiday during post pandemic times — that belongs to 2023 when Sony's all-pleasing fanboy animated movie, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse led all titles to a $205M+ marketplace. However, out of 22 weekends in 2025, only ten of 'em have grossed north of $100M-plus. Let's be pleased. I'm sure those novelty popcorn buckets at the circuits are still flying off counters. Disney's Lilo & Stitch is still on track for a $60M-$64M second weekend, Paramount's Mission: Impossible – Final Reckoning is showing that Imax makes a difference in weekend 2 with a -58% hold and $26.7M, and Sony's …the studio is forecasting $21M-$23M opening off a $7.5M Friday. Rivals see it lower in the high teens, however, as we said yesterday, it boils down to Saturday business and whether that tips more families into both Karate Kid, and Lilo & Stitch toward the higher end of its range. There is a bit of overlap between the two films demo wise, even though Lilo skews more female at 62% and Karate Kid: Legends more male at 59%. Their men under 25 demos are close (Legends is 22% to Lilo's 18%) and their women over 25 as well (Legends is 30% and Lilo 34%). Yes, of course, substantially more moms are taking kids to see Lilo. Net production cost on Karate Kid: Legends was $45M before P&A. It will be interesting to see how big overseas is. The franchise was born at a time in 1984 before studios relied on overseas. With Jackie Chan in the 2010 reboot, the foreign box office on that movie edged out domestic, $182.5M to $176.5M and that's without China, however, Japan made a great $17.4M. Men over 25 for Karate Kid were 37% and women under 25 the lowest turnout at 11%. Best grades for the crossover comes from women over 25 with 95%. Diversity demos were 36% Caucasian, 31% Hispanic and Latino, 16% Asian American and 12% Black. Great exits though for Karate Kid: Legends with an A- CinemaScore, the same grade as the 1986 sequel, Karate Kid II. The 2010 Chan version landed an A. Of course, the biggest reason on Screen Engine/Comscore's PostTrak why people bought tickets to Legends is because it's part of a franchise they love (46%). Also interesting to note that of all the moviegoers going to see Karate Kid: Legends, 68% of them said they have Netflix as their leading streaming service. That's where Sony's output deal is in the pay-one, and it's also where Cobra Kai lives. A24's Bring Her Back after a $3.1M Friday is looking at $7M-$8M in 5th place. For horror films, especially an A24 one, which typically divides audiences, the movie, wow, landed a B+ CinemaScore. Also, four stars and 80% positive and a 57% definite recommend. High praise. Hopefully that all works in the film's favor throughout this weekend and leg-wise. Thirty one percent of those who bought tickets said they went because it's a Philippou twins movie, and 48% said it's because it's a horror movie. Men over 25 mostly turned out at 42%, as well as women over 25 at 28%, with an even amount of men and women under 25 at 15% apiece. Diversity demos were 50% Caucasian, 23% Latino and Hispanic, 14% Black and 9% Asian American. Most influential forms of advertisement for Bring Her Back was social media at 21% per those polled by PostTrak which isn't surprising as it's an A24 movie, and that's where they focus most of their P&A spend. Those polled also said buzz from friends/family was influential (15%) as well as the in-theater trailer (14%). Social media universe across TikTok, Instagram, etc. was 50M per RelishMix, which is ahead of Hereditary (44M) before opening and just under NEON's Cuckoo (53M, $3M opening). Positive word of mouth that RelishMix spotted included fans of the Philippou's Talk to Me, as well as excitement over their trailer, some horror fans remarking that the movie looks like a throwback to 1989's Pet Sematary. RELATED: A24 financed the movie for around $20M I hear, with foreign rights sold going to Sony for around $13M, I understand. Also, as expected, Focus Features' Wes Anderson movie, The Phoenician Scheme, is heading toward the best theater average of 2025 year to date with $95K from six NYC and LA theaters. Not as high as the director's Asteroid City two years ago ($142,2K), but robust enough for the specialty sector post pandemic which is desperate for dollars. 3-day looks like $570K in 12th place. The Angelika in NY led all theaters with $78K yesterday where they had a premium $62 ticket that included an 'Immersive Experience' and popcorn. AMC Lincoln Square did $63K, LA's AMC Century City posted $38K, AMC The Grove a similar take, AMC Burbank $31.3K and Alamo Brooklyn was around $23K. Muy bien. RELATED: Saturday numbers: & Stitch (Dis) 4,410 theaters, Fri $17M (-70%) 3-day $60M-$64M (-56% to -59%), Total $277M-$281M/Wk 2 2. Mission: Impossible – Final Reckoning (Par) 3,861 (+4) Fri $7.5M (-70%), 3-day $26.7M (-58%), Total $122M/Wk 2 3. Karate Kid: Legends (Sony) 3,809 theaters, Fri $7.5M, 3-day $21M-$23M/Wk 1 4. Final Destination: Bloodlines (NL) 3,134 (-389) Fri $3.1M (-43%), 3-day $11M (-43%), Total $111.9M/Wk 3 5. Bring Her Back (A24) 2,449 theaters, Fri $3.1M, 3-day $7M-$8M/Wk 1 6.) Sinners (WB) 2,138 (-494) theaters Fri $1.55M (-35%) 3-day $5.1M (-40%), Total $267M/Wk 7 7.) Thunderbolts (Dis) 2,520 (-660) theaters Fri $1.3M (-48%) 3-day $4.7M (-51%), Total $181.7M/Wk 5 8.) Friendship (A24) 1,293 (+238) theaters, Fri $780K (-56%), 3-day $2.5M (-44%), Total $12.3M/Wk 4 9.) Last Rodeo (Angel) 1995 (-210), Fri $640K (-69%), 3-day $2.25M (-59%), Total $10.8M/Wk 2 10.) The Accountant 2 (AMZ) 820 (-1182) theaters, Fri $214K (-56%) 3-day $778K (-62%), Total $65M/Wk 6 Notables: The Phoenician Scheme (Foc) 6 theaters, Fri $270K, 3-day $570K, PTA $95K, Wk 1 FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Disney's Lilo & Stitch is coming in right where we were seeing it — at $60M in weekend 2, -59%, at 4,410 locations. That hold is similar to that of the second weekend of Little Mermaid, which was also a Memorial Day theatrical release. Today looks like $17M for Lilo's second Friday, -70%. Running total for the Dean Fleischer Camp directed movie by Sunday is $277M. However, Sony's is looking lighter than forecasts with a $20M opening after a $7M-$8M Friday that includes previews in 3,809 theaters. That would put the Ralph Macchio and Jackie Chan team-up in third place behind Paramount's second weekend of Mission: Impossible – Final Reckoning, with a $7.7M second Friday and $27.3M second weekend, -57% at 3,861. That's better than Dead Reckoning's second weekend decline of -65% sans Imax screens. Running total for the Christopher McQuarrie directed, Tom Cruise title by Sunday looks like $122.6M. The anticipation is that Saturday will work in both Lilo and Karate Kid: Legends' favor. Fourth is New Line's Final Destination: Bloodlines with $2.8M today at 3,134 and a third weekend of $10M, -48%, for a running total by Sunday of $110.9M. Fifth is A24's Bring Her Back with $3M today (including previews), and $6M-$7M for the weekend at 2,409 sites. Even if Karate Kid: Legends comes in less than expected, we are in far better shape than a year ago when the post Memorial Day weekend only did $66M per Box Office Mojo (there weren't any major studio releases and Garfield Movie led with a second weekend take of $14M). The top five movies this weekend (at the high end) are already grossing north of $124M. PREVIOUS FRIDAY AM: Sony's Karate Kid: Legends grossed $2.3M from previews that began at 2 p.m. Thursday. The PG-13 movie is a vortex of old school and new school: Ralph Macchio's Daniel-san, Jackie Chan's Mr. Han and, shhhhh, the Cobra Kai gang (I mean, is it really a secret?). Forecast for the movie is $25M-$30M in a marketplace where Disney's Lilo & Stitch is overpowering with a potential $60M second frame. also is hoping to hold with those Imax screens, around $32M or less. Critics like this Karate Kid a little less than the 2010 Chan one, 55% Rotten vs. 67% fresh. Karate Kid: Legends received 4 stars on PostTrak and a 68% definite recommend from definite audiences, 4 1/2 stars from parents and a 63 definite recommend, and kids under 12 with 4½ stars and a 79% must-see right away. Boys ages 10-12 at 64% made up the majority of the under-12 set; that demo is an essential portion of the Cobra Kai cult. Overall, men showed up at 60% last night. Karate Kid: Legends' Thursday night is just ahead of the $1.9M that Sony/Alcon's The Garfield Movie reboot made last May before a Friday of $8.4M and 3-day of $24M. Karate Kid: Legends was made for $45M net before P&A that's $5M more than the 2010 version cost (unadjusted for inflation). The Karate Kid franchise is 41 years old and counts $620M at the global box office from five previous movies; the bulk of that figure is from the Chan/Jaden Smith version 15 years ago, which made $359M worldwide. A24's Danny and Michael Philippou horror movie Bring Her Back made $850K in previews at 2,409 theaters that began at 4 p.m. Thursday. That figure is just under A24's fall sleeper Heretic, which made $1.2M in previews starting at 7 p.m. before turning into a $4.3M Friday and $10.8M opening. The Philippou twins' previous A24 movie, 2022's Talk to Me, opened to $10.4M. A good definite-recommend from the fanboy crowd last night for Bring Her Back at 58%, with women over 25 giving the movie its best positive score at 83%. The Thursday crowd was male-heavy at 57% to female's 43%. Women overall enjoyed it more than the guys, 83% to 77%. Go Sally Hawkins. The pre-weekend outlook is $5M-$7M. On Rotten Tomatoes, Bring Her Back has been stamped with 88% certified fresh. No audience score yet. Lilo & Stitch ends its first week with $217M at 4,410 theaters, after $9.2M yesterday, -9% from Wednesday. The pic's first week is 15% behind that the $255M for Inside Out 2, which ended its run at $652.9M, and it's 9% behind Moana 2's first seven days of $239.3M (final $460.4M). No, we're not saying the movie is doing badly, we're just trying to give you an idea of where Lilo & Stitch lives. While no one is forecasting this for Lilo & Stitch, sometimes these fan-fave Disney movies can go into overdrive, i.e. Inside Out 2 owns the best second weekend ever for a PG movie of $101.2M. And nobody saw that coming… Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning ends its first week with an estimated $95.3M at 3,857, which is 7% ahead of the first week of 2018's Mission: Impossible – Fallout ($220.1M final domestic) and 4.7% ahead of the first seven days of 2022's Dead Reckoning (final domestic B.O. was $172.6M). The rest of the top 5 for the week: 3. Final Destination Bloodlines (WB/NL) 3,523 theaters, Thu $1.85M (-13% from Wed), Week $30.7M (-56%), Total $100.9M/Wk 2It was the highest grossing of the franchise out of the gate. Nothing in its way. 4. Thunderbolts* (Dis) 3,180 theaters, Thu $765K (-10%), Wk $14.8M (-36%), Total $177M/Wk 4 5. Sinners (WB) 2,632 theaters, Thu $880k (-15%), Wk $14.06M (-37%), Total $261.8M/Wk 6 Best of Deadline Sean 'Diddy' Combs Sex-Trafficking Trial Updates: Cassie Ventura's Testimony, $10M Hotel Settlement, Drugs, Violence, & The Feds 'Poker Face' Season 2 Guest Stars: From Katie Holmes To Simon Hellberg 2025-26 Awards Season Calendar: Dates For Tonys, Emmys, Oscars & More
