3 days ago
Why this analyst sees a major box office rebound this summer
Data from Comscore reports that moviegoers shelled out more than $329 million at the box office over Memorial Day weekend — the biggest ever for that holiday.
Comscore senior media analyst Paul Dergarabedian breaks down what fueled the surge and why a $4 billion summer box office may be within reach.
To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Asking for a Trend here.
Consumers spent over $329 million at the box office over the four-day Memorial Day weekend, an all-time high, with Disney's Lilo and Stitch taken in over $182 million. This comes after 2024, which had the worst four-day performance in nearly three decades. According to our next guest though, this year's rebound could kick off a summer movie season that could reach over $4 billion in total grosses. But will it be enough to keep studios and theaters in the green? Paul Degarabedian, comScore senior media analyst joins us now. Paul, it is good to see you as always. So the Memorial Day weekend box office, Paul, a record. First, let's start there. Why, Paul? What drove that?
Well, you know, we had a first quarter, Josh, that was down about 12% versus last year according to our comScore data. And part of that was March, which was down 46% versus March of '24. Then comes along a little movie called A Minecraft movie, and that blew the doors off and kept playing really strongly. And then sinners, as we all know, had one of the lowest second weekend drops ever. So both those films overperformed opening weekend, and then they've had legs, as we say in the business, long-term playability. And then the accountant two opened, and then Marvel's Thunderbolts to kick off the summer, and then final destination bloodlines. Every single one of those films has overperformed and had more importantly long-term playability. That gave the best possible tailwinds heading into Memorial weekend with Mission Stitch possible, whatever you want to call it, just really bringing so much attention to the movie theater. And that's why you see that massive $329 million 4-day domestic record-breaking weekend for Memorial Day. This is huge for theaters right now.
And did you see any of those movies yourself, Paul, over that Memorial Day weekend? Any recommendations?
I saw, yeah, Mission Impossible. I saw that in IMAX. And, you know, the premium formats are very important when you talk about IMAX, 4DX, Dolby Vision. You know, even though consumers are price sensitive, when it comes to certain movies, audiences really want that premium experience. And that's going to happen a lot more this summer if a movie like, if you take F1, for example, from Warner Brothers and Apple, that's a big one. Obviously, DC and Warner Brothers Superman, which is on the way. And then, of course, Fantastic Four down the line for Marvel. So I just think that is, it was the momentum thing going on, movies very well marketed, audiences are in the mood to go to the movie theater. This is after all the summer movie season, and it's really playing out well. And this ain't the end. This isn't a one hit wonder of hits in terms of, I should say in terms of the box office. We have a lot more to come. Karate Kid legends opens this weekend. That's from Sony Pictures and on and on it goes. Ballerina is up next and a lot of kids movies, which PG movies have been at the forefront of the box office for the past year and a half at least.
And Paul, you say you're turned ahead to the summer. You say we're certainly looking at a $4 billion plus summer, potentially $4.2 billion plus. How, how come Paul, what gives you that, that optimism, that confidence?
Yeah, Josh, that's a great question because last summer we got to 3.7 billion, but remember last summer fell victim to not having a Marvel movie to kick off the summer. Memorial weekend, as you point out, was one of the lowest grossing ever. And it's because that year, last year, was impacted by the strikes, production schedule disruption, and then chaos to the release calendar. And that threw everything to disarray, and that summer of '24 didn't really get started until Bad Boys Rider Die in early June, and then really with Inside Out 2 in mid-June. This year's a completely different story. I defy anyone to find at least five movies that they aren't super anxious to see on that big screen in a movie theater. It's almost a champagne problem. There's almost too many films. Audiences have to figure out how are they going to budget for that. And theaters have to budget out screen space, real estate, for all these big, especially the premium formats. So it's a good, good situation, much better than last year, but a lot going on here for sure.
