Akzo Nobel N.V. Just Missed EPS By 12%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
It's been a good week for Akzo Nobel N.V. (AMS:AKZA) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest full-year results, and the shares gained 2.5% to €59.52. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at €11b, although statutory earnings per share came in 12% below what the analysts expected, at €3.17 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Akzo Nobel after the latest results.
View our latest analysis for Akzo Nobel
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Akzo Nobel from 18 analysts is for revenues of €11.0b in 2025. If met, it would imply a credible 2.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to expand 16% to €3.68. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €11.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of €3.98 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.
The consensus price target held steady at €70.47, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Akzo Nobel analyst has a price target of €85.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €57.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Akzo Nobel's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 2.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 5.0% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.3% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Akzo Nobel is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Akzo Nobel. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Akzo Nobel analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Akzo Nobel (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that we have uncovered.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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