Le Pen's MAGA-style martyrdom is new risk in France

Japan Times

02-04-2025

French elections often bring shocks. The 2012 presidential vote might have gone differently without Dominique Strauss-Kahn's perp walk. Emmanuel Macron might never have stepped into the Elysee without Francois Fillon's downfall over corruption charges. And now a bombshell has landed that will reshape the 2027 race: Far-right leader Marine Le Pen has been convicted of embezzlement, with the court barring her from standing for office for five years.
What makes this scandal different is not, as Le Pen's defenders — including Elon Musk — claim, that French democracy is now decided by a cabal of unelected judges. If anything, the sentencing went against widespread expectations among the Parisian elite of an outcome that would have kept the political peace. If the presiding judge threw the book at Le Pen, it's because of the magnitude of a "system' that lasted more than a decade and diverted millions of European Union funds for domestic activities — and because the far-right leader showed no remorse, insisting Monday evening that she was innocent and the victim of a political stitch-up. (If so, she's in good company.)
The real question today is just how absolute this ban will be when it comes to the far right's fortunes in a country where just a quarter of people trust the head of state and almost half view democracy as slow and inefficient. Some in the political establishment criticized the sentencing; the former adviser to Francois Mitterrand, Jacques Attali, even suggested changing the law. Abroad, Matteo Salvini in Italy and Viktor Orban in Hungary are tweeting their solidarity in the face of what the Kremlin unironically calls "violating democratic norms.' This will feed Le Pen's combative tone and her plans to appeal the verdict; while the ban is applicable regardless, there is a small possibility she could wriggle free just in the nick of time.
And even if she doesn't, her youthful No. 2, Jordan Bardella, will be elevated. He remains one of France's most popular politicians despite a mixed showing on the campaign trail last year. The Donald Trump playbook, in which legal defeat is recast as political martyrdom, is therefore highly relevant. "We should expect more polarization in France,' says Hakim El Karoui, co-author of a book on the risk of a Le Pen presidency, comparing this moment to the pro-Trump MAGA movement's "Stop the Steal' strategy after losing the 2020 election.
This is already somewhat visible in French public opinion. Before the sentencing, polls pointed to an almost 50-50 split between respondents who believed Le Pen was being treated harshly for political reasons and those who didn't. The former view was highest among Le Pen's own supporters, at 90%, and on the center-right, at 53%, where politicians clearly hope to profit by carving out a broader rightwing coalition. "The risk now is really a hardening of Le Pen's base,' reckons Catherine Fieschi, author of the 2019 book Populocracy.
With Le Pen keeping her seat in the current parliament, the pressure will also rise on Prime Minister Francois Bayrou as he navigates an already complex budgetary path in a legislature where no party has a majority. It's not clear whether Macron's presidency could survive another political crisis on par with last year's, which saw France cycle through four prime ministers.
One big factor could complicate Le Pen's pivot to MAGA martyrdom, however: The antics of Trump himself. Macron's approval ratings have risen in the past month thanks to a rally-round-the-flag effect as Europe tries to bolster its defenses against U.S. hostility on trade and abandonment on defense. French vulnerability to a Trump-style culture war may ebb depending on the outcome of the trade war, which is likely to start in earnest this week.
Still, the mood remains tense and the test for 2027 will be whether deep-seated problems can be resolved — not whether judges will be put back in their box. Le Pen's popularity has risen inexorably over the past decade, benefiting from the elite's missteps despite her late father's toxic legacy: She's replaced extremism with extreme ambiguity, harnessed anti-immigrant sentiment, ditched plans to exit the euro and become the working-class vote of choice by promising higher wages and generous pensions. It's perhaps ironic that her best chance at a populist victory in France is being undone by a law intended to quell populist ire over corrupt politicians. Yet while the law is having its day, it may only be for a day.
Lionel Laurent is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist writing about the future of money and the future of Europe.